Try the model
M-OH

Miami (OH) 40 at Bowling Green 26

BGSU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:06 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:48: Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:32: Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +12.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:06: James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 28 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder PAT MISSED) — BGSU win probability +17.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 13:41: Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +15.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:23: Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16M-OH 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:54BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 16, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:48BGSU 4th & 1 at M-OH 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:42BGSU 4th & 8 at M-OH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:19M-OH 4th & 7 at BGSU 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:10M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:55BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:26BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 33, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:39M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:59M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:03M-OH 4th & 7 at BGSU 28, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−10.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:33BGSU 4th & 4 at M-OH 15, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:31M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:31M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 23, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:23BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 44, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:16BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:57M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:48M-OH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:15BGSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:32M-OH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:06BGSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:41M-OH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:23M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
53.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 11 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
53.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
53.5%
Maurice Thomas run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
53.5%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-7
53.5%
Gus Ragland sacked by Terrance Bush for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
53.5%
Kyle Kramer punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 0:5254% → 56%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
53.9%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+11
53.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 11 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
55.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 72 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
55.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 23 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
55.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 8
50
0
55.2%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 8
50
0
55.4%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 8
50
0
55.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 42 yds, downed at the BwGrn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
56.4%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
56.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 7 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-1
56.2%
Donovan Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
55.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 44 yds, downed at the MiaOh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:1943% → 47%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Jared MurphySimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
56.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 14 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
56.4%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+15
56.9%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to GARDNER, James (JACKSON, Robert), PENALTY BGSU pass interference (JACKSON, Robert) 15 yards to the BGSU36, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
56.4%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+8
55.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 8 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
55.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 4 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+20
55.9%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 20 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.9%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:0655% → 56%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
54.6%
Fred Coppet run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
50
+6
55.7%
James Morgan run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
55.9%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
55.6%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
55.0%
James Morgan run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
55.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
56.1%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
56.1%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
55.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
56.2%
Jake Suder 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:1644% → 47%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
56.4%
Spencer McInnis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
56.3%
Gus Ragland run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
56.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 8 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
55.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
55.3%
Gus Ragland run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
55.1%
Kenny Young run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+11
54.7%
RAGLAND, Gus pass incomplete to GARDNER, James, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (WATSON, Will) 11 yards to the BGSU32, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
54.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 18 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
54.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Will WatsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
54.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Alonzo SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+3
55.1%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
53.5%
Nick Dowd 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8SF
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
53.5%
James Morgan run for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETY James Morgan fumbled, for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9TD
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:0149% → 60%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
51.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Maurice Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-5
51.2%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Ryan Smith) to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+15
51.5%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 15 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
50.9%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
51.0%
Gus Ragland pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+9
51.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 9 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
50.4%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 12 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
50.2%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 5 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
50.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-5
51.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+8
51.0%
RAGLAND, Gus pass intercepted by BOZEMAN, Jamari at the BGSU0, BOZEMAN, Jamari return to the BGSU0, PENALTY BGSU roughing passer 8 yards to the BGSU8, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
39.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Sam Shisso for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3342% → 55%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
42.5%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+30
41.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 15 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Joshua Allen) to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
44.4%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+30
44.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 19 yds to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (Tony Reid) to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
45.5%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
45.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
55.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Leonard Skattebo for 8 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
50.4%
Gus Ragland run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+13
49.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Spencer McInnis for 13 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
48.6%
Gus Ragland sacked by Trenton Greene for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
50.2%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Jerry McBride IIISimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 15
OWN 43
0
51.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 15
OWN 43
+4
52.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds , Will Watson returns for 4 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12END OF HALF
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:4351% → 48%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
51.3%
MORGAN, James pass incomplete to MILLER, Scott (MONTGOMERY, D.), PENALTY MIAMI offside defense 5 yards to the BGSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+9
52.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 9 yds to the BwGrn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
51.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Josh Cleveland for 9 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+22
53.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 22 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
56.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Josh Cleveland for 4 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
53.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Fred CoppetSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-15
51.5%
MORGAN, James pass complete to COPPET, Fred for 5 yards to the MIAMI26, out-of-bounds (HARDING, Heath), PENALTY BGSU face mask 15 yards to the MIAMI46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 21
OPP 46
0
48.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Vanel DossousSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
51.6%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
52.1%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
50.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo Redding, broken up by Heath HardingSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
49.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 44 yds , Jared Murphy returns for no gain to the MiaOh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:0452% → 67%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
48.5%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+14
48.8%
Kenny Young run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
46.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to James Gardner for 5 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+22
46.2%
Kenny Young run for 22 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
45.0%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+4
45.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
32.6%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
35.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
35.0%
James Morgan run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
36.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Leonard Skattebo, broken up by De'Andre MontgomerySimilar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 2
OWN 38
-5
34.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (Joseph Davidson) to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+10
33.5%
Joseph Davidson punt for 46 yds , Jared Murphy returns for 10 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
33.8%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for 2 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
33.8%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Kenny YoungSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
34.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 10 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
32.7%
Gus Ragland run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
32.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
33.0%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Sam ShissoSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
33.9%
Kyle Kramer punt for 44 yds, downed at the BwGrn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 1:4132% → 54%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
32.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Vanel Dossous, broken up by De'Andre MontgomerySimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+15
32.0%
MORGAN, James pass incomplete to MOORE, Ronnie (DANIELS, D.), PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (DANIELS, D.) 15 yards to the BGSU23, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
32.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+23
32.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 23 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
34.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 5 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
35.9%
Fred Coppet run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
36.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 14 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
53.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 28 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
44.1%
Gus Ragland run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
44.4%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
45.5%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Sam ShissoSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 7
OWN 24
-3
47.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 39 yds , Will Watson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0047% → 51%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
47.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for 6 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-9
50.6%
James Morgan sacked by Brad Koenig for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 31 James Morgan fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Aj Burdine , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20TD
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:2261% → 78%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
38.7%
Gus Ragland sacked by Gus Schwieterman for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+7
40.1%
Alonzo Smith run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+13
43.3%
Gus Ragland run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
40.7%
Gus Ragland pass incomplete to Rokeem WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
38.3%
Gus Ragland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
38.3%
Maurice Thomas run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.3%
Gus Ragland run for no gain to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
37.3%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.1%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:0823% → 32%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Grant Niemiec) to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
24.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 16 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
26.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 8 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Heath Harding) to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
28.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
27.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
26.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
32.1%
Jake Suder 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
25.3%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Kenny Young for 8 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-1
23.7%
Gus Ragland pass complete to Jared Murphy for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
24.1%
Kenny Young run for no gain to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
26.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23INT
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:0029% → 36%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
28.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 2 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
28.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+7
28.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
29.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 8 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+12
32.2%
James Morgan run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
33.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 17 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
36.4%
James Morgan pass intercepted De'Andre Montgomery return for 34 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:0880% → 94%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+62
20.1%
Kenny Young run for 62 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.1%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.9%
Spencer McInnis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
7.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
7.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 9 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 38
-10
7.8%
MORGAN, James pass complete to REDDING, Teo for 13 yards to the MIAMI49 (HARDING, Heath), PENALTY BGSU holding (STEWARD, Ben) 10 yards to the BGSU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
6.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Vanel DossousSimilar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+15
6.7%
MORGAN, James pass intercepted by WILLIAMS, TJ at the MIAMI20, WILLIAMS, TJ return to the MIAMI20, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (WILLIAMS, TJ) 15 yards to the BGSU43, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
7.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Deric PhouthavongSimilar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
7.5%
James Morgan pass intercepted TJ Williams return for no gain to the MiaOh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:5795% → 96%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
5.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (Shannon Smith) to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 5
OWN 43
0
4.1%
Alonzo Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
4.1%
Spencer McInnis run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-2
3.7%
Gus Ragland run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 48 Gus Ragland fumbled, forced by Shannon Smith, recovered by BwGrn Brandon HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
5.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 2 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
5.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-7
6.1%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 36 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (Lorenzo Taborn) to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+14
5.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 14 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
6.5%
James Morgan pass intercepted Tony Reid return for no gain to the MiaOh 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0497% → 98%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
2.9%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+8
3.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
2.3%
Spencer McInnis run for no gain to the MiaOh 23Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
2.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 38 yds, downed at the BwGrn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
1.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 12 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
1.6%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
1.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-8
1.6%
James Morgan sacked by JT Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
1.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Vanel DossousSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:06
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 28 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder PAT MISSED)
+17.5
TD · Q4 13:41
Gus Ragland pass complete to Ryan Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q3 10:32
Gus Ragland pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
-12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com