Try the model
CMU

Central Michigan 17 at Toledo 31

TOL
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Glass Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:06 · Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+17.3Home team on offense+1.3Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:26: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +9.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:35: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +9.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:50: Cooper Rush run for 20 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +8.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:30: Brian Eavey 36 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +3.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:36: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +7.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 11 at TOL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:45TOL 4th & 8 at CMU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:40CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:06TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:06TOL 4th & 1 at CMU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:06TOL 4th & 12 at CMU 36, up 3
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:01CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:29TOL 4th & 5 at CMU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:29CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 41, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:45TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:30CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 18, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:10CMU 4th & 10 at TOL 45, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    6.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:52TOL 4th & 17 at CMU 34, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.7%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 12:26TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:35TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:50CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:36TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:30TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:11CMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
73.3%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+4
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 4 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+9
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 9 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
73.3%
Devon Spalding run for 14 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+17
73.3%
Devon Spalding run for 17 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
73.3%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Brandon Childress, broken up by Tyler TaafeSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
73.3%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:3472% → 72%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
72.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for no gain to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
72.3%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JONES, Corey (DANNA, Mike), PENALTY CMU offside defense 5 yards to the TOLEDO31, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
72.4%
Logan Woodside run for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
72.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+25
72.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 25 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
72.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 9 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+10
73.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
73.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-1
73.0%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
72.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea Johnson, broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
72.4%
Jameson Vest 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
72.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
72.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-4
72.5%
Cooper Rush sacked by John Stepec for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
73.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 54 yds, downed at the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
71.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
71.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+18
71.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 3 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Nathan Ricketts) to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.3%
Logan Woodside run for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
72.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-6
72.4%
Logan Woodside sacked by Kelby Latta for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
71.4%
Nick Ellis punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0828% → 28%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
71.6%
Mark Chapman run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 11Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
71.7%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+11
72.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 11 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 22
+52
72.2%
Jack Sheldon punt for 52 yds , Corey Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
71.4%
Terry Swanson run for 19 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
72.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-1
72.3%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
72.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
71.4%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
72.6%
SWANSON, Terry rush for no gain to the CMU34 (DEAN, Jabari), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (PERSCHON, Paul) 10 yards to the CMU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
71.7%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
71.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Terry Swanson, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 20
OPP 44
+8
71.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 8 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
70.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 28%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
70.4%
Cooper Rush run for 2 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
71.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+10
71.8%
Jack Sheldon punt for 37 yds , Cody Thompson returns for 10 yds to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2973% → 72%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
72.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+21
72.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 21 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
73.1%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
73.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
72.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for no gain to the CMich 16Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
72.3%
Jameson Vest 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9FUMBLE
10 plays · 80 yds · 0:0029% → 32%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
70.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
70.5%
Jahray Hayes run for 10 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
70.2%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
71.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+9
71.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 9 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+18
71.0%
Jack Sheldon pass complete to Nate Brisson-Fast for 18 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
68.6%
Brandon Childress pass incomplete to Cooper RushSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+20
68.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 20 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
67.8%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+16
67.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 16 yds Devon Spalding fumbled, forced by Trevon Mathis, recovered by ToledSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.6%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:2971% → 82%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.7%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
70.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+16
69.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 16 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
72.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-1
72.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+33
71.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 33 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
72.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+16
82.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
81.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jabari Dean) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
80.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
80.5%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Connery Swift return for 3 yds to the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13TD
4 plays · 39 yds · 1:2783% → 92%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
82.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kelby Latta) to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
83.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael Roberts, broken up by Alex BrionesSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
83.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 6 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
92.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:4110% → 21%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
89.8%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the CMich 28 Jahray Hayes fumbled, recovered by CMich Jahray HayesSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+35
90.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 35 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
88.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 21 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
87.7%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+20
79.5%
Cooper Rush run for 20 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
82.8%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
83.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
82.9%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
82.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
81.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:4518% → 23%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
82.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 10 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
81.1%
Devon Spalding run for 20 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
79.1%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+9
79.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 9 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
78.7%
Devon Spalding run for 5 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
78.7%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
79.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Brandon ChildressSimilar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
77.0%
Brian Eavey 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:4984% → 95%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
83.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+12
84.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 12 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
85.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+12
86.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Zach Yousey for 12 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
86.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
87.1%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+5
86.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
87.1%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY CMU pass interference (COX, Josh) 15 yards to the CMU15, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
87.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
87.1%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
94.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:268% → 5%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
91.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Zach Crouch for 30 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.8%
Cooper Rush run for no gain to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
90.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q4 11:36
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
90.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Brandon Childress, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
94.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3396% → 99%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
95.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 5
50
+25
95.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 25 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
96.0%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-15
96.5%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to JONES, Corey for 22 yards to the CMU0, clock 08:15, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (ATARIWA, Yazeed) 15 yards to the CMU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 22
OPP 37
+3
96.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 19
OPP 34
+34
99.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 34 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
99.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:141% → 4%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
99.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 16 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
99.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 11 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jamil SabbaghSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+13
99.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 13 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.0%
RUSH, Cooper pass intercepted by ROGERS, DeJuan at the TOLEDO0, ROGERS, DeJuan return to the TOLEDO0, touchback, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (ADENIYI, Olasunkanmi) 15 yards to the TOLEDO21, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
98.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 8 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+7
98.8%
RUSH, Cooper pass intercepted by MARTIN, Jordan at the TOLEDO1, MARTIN, Jordan return to the CMU45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (ADENIYI, Olasunkanmi) 7 yards to the TOLEDO6, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the Toled 4Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 9 yds · 3:1798% → 99%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
98.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
98.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+9
98.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
98.4%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-5
98.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Nate Jeppesen) to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 17
OPP 34
-3
98.4%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 20
OPP 37
+3
99.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 17
OPP 34
-6
99.2%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:26
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q3 9:35
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q3 6:50
Cooper Rush run for 20 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com