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BUF

Buffalo 7 at Northern Illinois 44

NIU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:00 · Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Buff 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+41.1Home team on offense+0.5Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Jordan Johnson run for 29 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +2.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:52: Anthony Maddie run for 15 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +2.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:14: Anthony Maddie run for 16 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +4.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:18: Anthony Maddie 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — NIU win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:16: Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 22 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:00NIU 4th & 2 at BUF 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:14NIU 4th & 2 at BUF 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 30, down 10
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:52BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:14BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:41NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 37, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:17BUF 4th & 7 at NIU 28, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:52BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 29, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:18NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 36, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:16BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 30, down 23
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:11BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 24, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:34NIU 4th & 11 at BUF 43, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 8 at NIU 43, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:04BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 48, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:37NIU 4th & 10 at BUF 38, up 37
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:48NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:52NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:14NIU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18NIU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:16NIU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:04NIU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 2INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jacob Martinez for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
91.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
91.9%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Jamaal Payton for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+3
91.9%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Jamaal Payton return for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.8%
Anthony Maddie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
91.7%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+2
91.7%
Kenny Golladay run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+1
91.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
91.5%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
91.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 12 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
91.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
91.4%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Mayomi Olootu return for 1 yd to the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:0191% → 91%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
91.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
91.5%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+10
91.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 10 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
91.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
91.5%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 4 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
91.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to D.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
91.5%
Anthony Maddie run for 6 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+9
91.5%
Ryan Graham run for 9 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
91.5%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Spencer Tears for 3 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+6
91.5%
Christian Blake run for 6 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-1
91.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 8Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
90.8%
Christian Hagan 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
90.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
90.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+6
90.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-4
90.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 43 yds , Ezra Saffold returns for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
90.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+18
90.7%
Aregeros Turner run for 18 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.0%
Christian Blake run for no gain to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
90.9%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
90.7%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
90.5%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:5910% → 13%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
90.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 12 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
90.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 8 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
90.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 3 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
90.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+13
90.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 13 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
89.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 23 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
89.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+29
87.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 29 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
87.7%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
87.7%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
87.4%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
87.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 78 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
87.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
87.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
87.6%
HAWKINS, Johnat rush for 7 yards to the UB37, PENALTY UB holding (EILAND, Jamarl) 3 yards to the UB27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:26
1ST & 13
OWN 27
0
87.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+1
87.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 1 yd to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+8
88.0%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Trequan Smith return for 8 yds to the Buff 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:3888% → 91%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
87.7%
Ezra Saffold run for 9 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
87.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
87.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+7
87.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.5%
Anthony Maddie run for 15 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
89.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
90.2%
Kyle Deween punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ezra Saffold at the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:1590% → 94%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
89.7%
Anthony Maddie run for 6 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
89.8%
Anthony Maddie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
89.6%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 4 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+37
90.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 37 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
90.3%
D.J. Brown run for 8 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+16
94.4%
Anthony Maddie run for 16 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
92.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.8%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
92.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 5 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
92.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
93.0%
Kyle Deween punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
94.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
94.4%
Anthony Maddie run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
94.3%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+7
94.1%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 46 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 7 yds to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16INT
11 plays · 66 yds · 2:097% → 9%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
93.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 18 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
92.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
92.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 10 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
92.5%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to OSBORN,KJ (DEVEAUX, Lance), PENALTY NIU pass interference (MILTON, Dwayne) 15 yards to the NIU31, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
92.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Daniel IsomSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
92.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Mayomi OlootuSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+3
92.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+18
92.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 18 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.5%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Mayomi Olootu return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 0:4694% → 98%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
94.4%
Anthony Maddie run for 18 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
94.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Remaine Douglas) to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
94.7%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 39 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
95.2%
Anthony Maddie run for 5 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.2%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
Anthony Maddie 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
96.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 12 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
96.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-9
96.4%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Jamaal Payton for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+9
96.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the Buff 29 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Kyle Deween punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ezra Saffold at the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
97.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 10 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.2%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
97.2%
Anthony Maddie run for no gain to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
96.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
96.9%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
96.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+3
96.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Kyle Deween punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ezra Saffold at the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5698% → 100%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 35Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
97.5%
D.J. Brown run for 17 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
97.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
97.7%
Tommy Mister run for 6 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
97.7%
Anthony Maddie run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
97.7%
Tommy Mister run for 6 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
97.7%
D.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
97.7%
Anthony Maddie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+22
99.7%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 22 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
99.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 13
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Kyle Deween punt for 58 yds, downed at the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
99.8%
Aregeros Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+8
99.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 8 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+7
99.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
99.8%
Anthony Maddie run for 12 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.8%
Anthony Maddie run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+15
99.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 15 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
99.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-4
99.8%
Aregeros Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
99.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 12 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
99.8%
JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to EILAND, Jamarl for no gain to the UB23 (DEVEAUX, Lance), PENALTY UB illegal motion 5 yards to the UB18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+14
99.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 14 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+6
99.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 6 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+12
99.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 12 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Jackson AbreschSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Kyle Deween punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
99.8%
BOUAGNON, Joel rush for no gain to the NIU5 (LAMOUR, Dev), PENALTY NIU holding (SHIVELY, Luke) 2 yards to the NIU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 12
OWN 3
+4
99.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+6
99.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+24
99.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 9 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brandon Williams) to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+17
99.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 17 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.9%
Anthony Maddie run for 7 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
99.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
99.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Anthony Maddie run for 23 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 9 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 6 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
99.9%
EILAND, Jamarl rush for no gain to the NIU49 (SANDERS, Joe), PENALTY UB holding (MABRY, Tyler) 10 yards to the UB41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Antonio Jones-DavisSimilar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 11
50
-2
99.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Kyle Deween punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ezra Saffold at the NoIll 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 8 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Tommy Mister run for 7 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+30
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 30 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Tommy Mister run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-3
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Ryan Graham run for no gain to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted Tim Roberts return for no gain to the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
100.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 11 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
100.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Buff 24Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
100.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:14
Anthony Maddie run for 16 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+4
TD · Q2 10:52
Anthony Maddie run for 15 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 0:18
Anthony Maddie 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com