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AKR

Akron 35 at Ball State 25

BALL
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:15 · James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense+1.9Pregame prior+7.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:46: Tra'Von Chapman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +14.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 0:20: Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 23 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +25.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:19: Manny Morgan pass complete to Austin Wolf for 14 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +18.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:18: Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 17 yds for a TD, (R. Neal Run For Two-point Conversion) — BALL win probability +28.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 2:22: Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 3 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK) — AKR win probability +10.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:03BALL 4th & 1 at AKR 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:58BALL 4th & 4 at AKR 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−3.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:15BALL 4th & 1 at AKR 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.9%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:30AKR 4th & 3 at BALL 39, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−1.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:59BALL 4th & 6 at AKR 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−1.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00AKR 4th & 4 at BALL 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.3%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:41BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 46, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at AKR 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−4.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−16.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:19BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:56AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:51AKR 4th & 1 at BALL 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.7%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:18BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.1%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:12BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:24AKR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:36BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:46AKR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:20AKR Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:19AKR Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:18BALL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.1%−1.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:22AKR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:4861% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
60.9%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
60.9%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
60.9%
James Gilbert run for 12 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
60.9%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+8
60.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
60.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+7
60.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 7 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+9
60.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
60.9%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the Akron 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
60.9%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Akron 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+13
60.9%
James Gilbert run for 13 yds to the Akron 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.9%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Akron 1Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.6%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 61 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
62.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 5 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-3
62.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 23Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+15
63.1%
WOODSON, Thomas pass incomplete to WOLF, Austin, PENALTY BALL roughing passer (POSLEY, Joshua) 15 yards to the AKRON38, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
62.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 27 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
62.1%
Thomas Woodson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+10
62.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 10 yds A.J. Coney fumbled, forced by Corey Hall, recovered by BalSt Lamar Anderson AKRON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 7:0564% → 67%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
63.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 3 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+10
63.6%
Riley Neal run for 10 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
63.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
50
+6
64.3%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
64.4%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
64.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for no gain to the Akron 39Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
64.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
64.1%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+1
63.8%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
64.4%
Darian Green run for 12 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
64.4%
Darian Green run for no gain to the Akron 17Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
64.4%
Riley Neal run for 8 yds to the Akron 9Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+2
64.1%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Akron 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
64.4%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Akron 4Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.2%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
66.7%
Morgan Hagee 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:3033% → 40%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
66.7%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
66.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+14
67.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 14 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
66.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 8 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
65.8%
Van Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+16
66.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 16 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
65.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo Natson, broken up by Martez HesterSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
60.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 45 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:4062% → 70%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
62.0%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+16
63.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 16 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
63.6%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
63.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
63.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 5 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
62.2%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
64.1%
Riley Neal run for 16 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
69.6%
James Gilbert run for 18 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0031% → 32%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.8%
Manny Morgan run for 4 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
68.2%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 12 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
67.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 13 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin Wolf, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
67.1%
Manny Morgan run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
67.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Manny Morgan for 5 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
67.9%
Nick Gasser punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
69.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 8 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+1
69.4%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+6
68.8%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
69.6%
Darian Green run for 17 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
71.0%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+5
71.2%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for no gain to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
71.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Danny Pinter for 4 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
70.5%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
69.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, downed at the Akron 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8END OF HALF
13 plays · 55 yds · 2:5628% → 27%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
72.3%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-1 Yards) to the Akron 1Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+1
72.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 2Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+11
72.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 11 yds to the Akron 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
72.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 15 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
71.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
72.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the Akron 28Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+11
75.4%
Thomas Woodson run for 11 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
73.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome Lane, broken up by David MooreSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
73.9%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+18
74.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 18 yds to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
73.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:1427% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
73.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 7 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
72.0%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the Akron 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
72.3%
WOODSON, Thomas pass incomplete to WOLF, Austin, PENALTY BALL offside defense (POSLEY, Joshua) 5 yards to the AKRON48, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
71.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 8 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-5
71.1%
WOODSON, Thomas pass incomplete to LANE, Jerome, PENALTY AKRON illegal formation (LETULI, Jovann) 5 yards to the BALL49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
71.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+14
72.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 14 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
70.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+1
70.1%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
71.2%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+28
73.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 28 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.2%
Tra'Von Chapman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
64.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+10
64.2%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to GREEN, Darian, PENALTY AKRON holding (COPELAND, D.) 10 yards to the BALL34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
66.0%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
65.5%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
65.4%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
65.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+11
65.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 48 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 11 yds to the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 7:0036% → 66%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
63.6%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 5 yds to the Akron 22Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
63.2%
Manny Morgan run for 6 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
63.2%
Manny Morgan run for 2 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
63.1%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 6 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+8
62.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Newman Williams for 8 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
60.5%
WOODSON, Thomas rush for 9 yards to the BALL47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY AKRON holding (RITZ, Kyle) 10 yards to the AKRON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 20
OWN 34
-5
63.6%
EDWARDS, Van rush for 5 yards to the AKRON39 (POSLEY, Joshua), PENALTY AKRON illegal formation (LETULI, Jovann) 5 yards to the AKRON29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 25
OWN 29
+8
63.6%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 8 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 17
OWN 37
+6
63.7%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+20
63.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 20 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
59.6%
Thomas Woodson run for 8 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-5
57.9%
EDWARDS, Van rush for 5 yards to the BALL24 (WIGGINS, Sean), PENALTY AKRON illegal formation (LETULI, Jovann) 5 yards to the BALL34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+5
57.9%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Van Edwards Jr. for 5 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+6
59.4%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 6 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
33.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 23 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:1346% → 45%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
45.6%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
47.3%
James Gilbert run for 21 yds to the Akron 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
49.4%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+7
49.4%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
47.0%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the Akron 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-1
44.8%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:4963% → 87%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
37.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Austin Wolf for 9 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+19
35.7%
Manny Morgan run for 19 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
34.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 21 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
32.4%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Austin WolfSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
32.5%
Manny Morgan run for 11 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
32.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Newman Williams for 8 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+14
13.2%
Manny Morgan pass complete to Austin Wolf for 14 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Hogue, broken up by Bryce JonesSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.4%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-2
15.5%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 29Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
13.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 47 yds, downed at the Akron 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
13.5%
Van Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the Akron 24Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
13.5%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to JoJo NatsonSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+2
14.3%
Van Edwards Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
14.3%
Nick Gasser punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 30 , Corey Lacanaria returns for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:0514% → 46%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
14.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 9 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+1
15.9%
Darian Green run for 1 yd to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
15.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 33 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
18.8%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to GREEN, Darian, PENALTY BALL ineligible downfield on pass (MALONEY, Pat) 5 yards to the AKRON32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
17.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete, broken up by Daumantas VenckusSimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+7
16.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 7 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+5
16.9%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HAZELTON JR.,D., PENALTY AKRON 12 men on the field 5 yards to the AKRON20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+3
17.5%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
46.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 17 yds for a TD, (R. Neal Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 2:5171% → 96%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
28.8%
Thomas Woodson pass incomplete to Jerome LaneSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
29.4%
WOODSON, Thomas pass incomplete to LANE, Jerome, PENALTY BALL personal foul (HESTER, Martez) 15 yards to the AKRON42, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
25.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 6 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
25.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 3 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
23.5%
Tra'Von Chapman run for no gain to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
26.3%
Tra'Von Chapman run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
23.0%
Manny Morgan run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+38
19.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 38 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
17.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to A.J. Coney for 7 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.3%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 3 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18INT
13 plays · 52 yds · 1:195% → 5%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
5.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Aaron HeppSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
5.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Aaron HeppSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+9
4.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 9 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+7
5.4%
Darian Green run for 7 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
5.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 6
50
0
6.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 6
50
+19
5.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 19 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
7.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
7.4%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+6
3.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
4.7%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Jordan George return for no gain to the Akron 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
3.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:18
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 17 yds for a TD, (R. Neal Run For Two-point Conversion)
+28.8
TD · Q3 0:20
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 23 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q4 10:19
Manny Morgan pass complete to Austin Wolf for 14 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com