2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreWMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:28 · Tra'Von Chapman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:20: Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds for a TD AKRON Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declined, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +1.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:28: Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 5 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +4.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:54: Davon Tucker run for 13 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton PAT MISSED) — WMU win probability +2.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 10:42: Manny Morgan run for 11 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST down — WMU win probability +4.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 6:08: Tra'Von Chapman run for 15 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Akron 45 for a 1ST down — WMU win probability +5.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 11:18AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 29, down 7Close callPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it26.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:01AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 20, down 14Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snapGo for it25.0%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:28AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 45, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 10:42AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 41, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.5%−1.026% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.5%average punt
- Q2 8:13WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 39, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.6%average punt
- Q2 6:08AKR 4th & 4 at WMU 34, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.6%48% to convertField goal7.7%−0.947% to makePunt7.0%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:00WMU 4th & 9 at AKR 35, up 27Close callKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.8%32% to convertField goalTheir call94.7%−<0.145% to makePunt94.6%−0.2average punt
- Q3 15:00AKR 4th & 8 at WMU 49, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q3 11:25WMU 4th & 14 at WMU 30, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.1%−0.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q3 7:44AKR 4th & 23 at WMU 47, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 19 at WMU 44, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.111% to convertField goal0.5%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 4:58WMU 4th & 1 at AKR 2, up 34Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%60% to convertField goal99.6%−0.294% to makePunt99.1%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 11:24WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.1%97% to makeGo for two73.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:20WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.2%97% to makeGo for two74.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:28WMU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:54WMU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call88.9%97% to makeGo for two88.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:36WMU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:58WMU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWMUDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3680% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 5 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
20.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 7 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
20.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
20.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 16 yds to the Akron 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.4%
FRANKLIN, J rush for no gain to the AKRON1 (JEST, Davon'te;LAKO, John), PENALTY AKRON illegal participation 0 yards to the AKRON1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 11:18
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+14
21.2%
Nick Gasser punt for 49 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 14 yds to the WMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD9 plays · 64 yds · 3:1179% → 81%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+45
21.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 45 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-11
21.1%
TERRELL, Zach rush for 6 yards to the AKRON8 (MOORE, D.), PENALTY WMU holding 11 yards to the AKRON25, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
21.1%
TERRELL, Zach pass intercepted by SCOTT, DeAndre at the AKRON12, SCOTT, DeAndre return to the AKRON12, PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds for a TD AKRON Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declined, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1320% → 20%
WMUDrive 5TD18 plays · 70 yds · 6:4880% → 86%
Q1 6:16
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+6
19.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 6 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+7
19.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 7 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
19.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
19.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 6 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
18.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
14.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 5 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
14.5%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Jerome Lane for 9 yds to the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD3 plays · 44 yds · 0:3986% → 89%
AKRDrive 8INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
WMUDrive 9FUMBLE4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
AKRDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.5%
Tra'Von Chapman pass incomplete to Jerome Lane, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
6.7%
Tra'Von Chapman sacked by Andre Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+5
6.4%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Jerome Lane for 5 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
6.3%
Nick Gasser punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
AKRDrive 12INT9 plays · 65 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
4.7%
Tra'Von Chapman run for 15 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+22
4.9%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to JoJo Natson for 22 yds to the WMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
5.3%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to JoJo Natson for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 15Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 13
OPP 15
0
5.2%
Tra'Von Chapman pass intercepted Kasey Carson return for no gain to the WMich 3Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
4.8%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Jerome Lane for 15 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
5.2%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Austin Wolf for 6 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
5.0%
Tra'Von Chapman pass incomplete to Austin Wolf, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13MISSED FG13 plays · 62 yds · 3:1090% → 93%
Q2 3:10
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
8.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 2 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
7.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 16 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
6.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis, broken up by Zach GuiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
5.3%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to JoJo Natson for 13 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
5.0%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 6 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
5.6%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 9 yds to the WMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+8
3.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 8 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+18
3.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 18 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
3.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 3 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 3
OPP 0
-15
3.1%
FRANKLIN, J rush for 7 yards to the WMU48 (FEATHERSTONE, S), PENALTY WMU personal foul 15 yards to the WMU26, NO PLAY, PENALTY WMU holding declined.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 31 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+44
3.5%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Austin Wolf for 44 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-12
3.8%
Tra'Von Chapman sacked by Keion Adams for a loss of 12 yards to the WMich 47 AKRON Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the WMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17TD8 plays · 95 yds · 3:4098% → 99%
Q3 2:36
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
0.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT12 plays · 31 yds · 2:362% → 0%
Q3 2:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
1.6%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to JoJo Natson for 7 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 41
-10
0.5%
CHAPMAN, T. pass incomplete to CONEY, A.J., QB hurry by BRASTER, Nathan, PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 26
OWN 49
-6
0.4%
Tra'Von Chapman sacked by Nathan Braster for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 32
OWN 43
+13
0.4%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Jerome Lane for 13 yds to the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19TD18 plays · 92 yds · 8:3399% → 100%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
0.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 3 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
0.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 6 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
0.5%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis, broken up by Kyron BrownSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
0.5%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis, broken up by James TurnerSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+10
0.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 10 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20END OF GAME12 plays · 58 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
0.1%
Tra'Von Chapman run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:08
Tra'Von Chapman run for 15 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Akron 45 for a 1ST down
-5.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 10:42
Manny Morgan run for 11 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST down
-4.8
TD · Q2 14:28
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 5 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)
-4