Try the model
BALL

Ball State 31 at Buffalo 21

BUF
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · UB Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Kyle Deween punt for 27 yds, downed at the BalSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior−28.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:45: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 13 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +13.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:16: Riley Neal run for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +15.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:28: James Gilbert run for 80 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +19.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:34: Riley Neal run for 7 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +13.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:56: Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +7.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 11BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25BALL 4th & 15 at BUF 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:48BALL 4th & 5 at BUF 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:16BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:01BUF 4th & 9 at BALL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:32BUF 4th & 1 at BALL 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:04BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:17BUF 4th & 3 at BALL 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:58BUF 4th & 1 at BALL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−1.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:52BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.5%−3.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:08BUF 4th & 1 at BALL 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%−2.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−11.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:52BUF 4th & 12 at BALL 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    47.3%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:22BUF 4th & 1 at BALL 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−4.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−5.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:27BUF 4th & 8 at BALL 33, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:56BALL 4th & 1 at BUF 17, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%−1.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−4.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:46BALL 4th & 4 at BUF 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−5.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:30BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:31BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:45BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:16BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:28BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:34BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:56BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
21.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
21.4%
Kyle Deween punt for 27 yds, downed at the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2078% → 78%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
21.8%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BUFFALO 49 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
21.8%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+4
21.8%
KeVonn Mabon run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
21.8%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
21.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+16
21.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 16 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
21.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
21.8%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.0%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:5122% → 27%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
22.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+8
22.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the Buff 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
22.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 12 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
22.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+35
22.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 35 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
22.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+7
22.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 7 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
22.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 14 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
26.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
25.4%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+25
25.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 25 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
24.8%
KeVonn Mabon run for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
24.8%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
24.8%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
24.7%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
24.7%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-5
25.0%
[SGUN], PENALTY BALL false start (MILLER, Drake) 5 yards to the UB36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 15
OPP 36
0
25.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
25.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
26.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
26.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
26.1%
Kyle Deween punt for 36 yds , KeVonn Mabon returns for no gain to the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
26.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 11 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
25.9%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-2
25.8%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+1
26.1%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
26.5%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:4428% → 29%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
28.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 20 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
28.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
29.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for no gain to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+1
29.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
28.9%
Kyle Deween punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
28.9%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-1
28.9%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
29.4%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
29.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
32.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
31.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+6
30.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
30.2%
Kyle Deween punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:0070% → 72%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+43
30.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Cywettnie Brown for 43 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
28.7%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
28.3%
Riley Neal sacked by Demone Harris for a loss of 12 yards to the Buff 43 Riley Neal fumbled, recovered by Buff Jarrett Franklin , return for 0 yards , return for 10 yds to the Buff 24 BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Chris Ford) to the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
33.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
33.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
33.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
32.6%
Kyle Deween punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
31.5%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 11
OWN 11
0
31.7%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 11
OWN 11
0
32.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+13
33.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 27 , Jamarl Eiland returns for 13 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2537% → 36%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
36.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+4
36.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+8
35.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
36.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
36.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
35.7%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the BalSt 4Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
36.1%
Adam Mitcheson 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0068% → 70%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
32.6%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
33.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 9 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
32.0%
Teddy Williamson run for 10 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
30.9%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
30.5%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Ryan Williamson return for no gain to the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:0538% → 53%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
38.3%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to HOLSEY, Kamathi, PENALTY BALL pass interference (WALTON, Marc) 15 yards to the BALL45, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
39.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
39.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+16
39.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 16 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
40.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
40.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 4 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
39.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+2
38.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
52.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 13 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16INT
12 plays · 57 yds · 0:3752% → 53%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
48.1%
Teddy Williamson run for 23 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
45.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
44.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 8 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
44.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 16 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
43.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
44.6%
Riley Neal run for 11 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
45.3%
[SGUN], PENALTY BALL delay of game 5 yards to the UB18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 15
OPP 18
0
46.6%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Ishmael Hargrove return for no gain to the Buff 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
50.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
49.8%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
49.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
48.5%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
48.3%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
47.2%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+1
47.4%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-2
48.4%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
57.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 13 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
57.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
57.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+6
56.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 1
OPP 25
0
55.0%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0445% → 66%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
54.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 23 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+50
51.7%
James Gilbert run for 50 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
48.8%
Teddy Williamson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 4Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.8%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
14 plays · 37 yds · 3:1942% → 43%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
42.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 8 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
43.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by David MooreSimilar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
42.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+10
42.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 10 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
45.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
46.0%
[PSTL], PENALTY BALL offside (THURMON, Kevin) 5 yards to the BALL42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+6
46.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 6 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
48.6%
[PSTL], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to ROBINSON, Malco for 36 yards to the BALL0, clock 05:52, PENALTY UB illegal formation 5 yards to the BALL41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+7
46.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-4
49.8%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Terin Solomon for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
45.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Armani McNultySimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
43.3%
Kyle Deween punt for 27 yds, downed at the BalSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:4859% → 78%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
41.3%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+80
22.2%
James Gilbert run for 80 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0026% → 28%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
25.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 7 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
27.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+22
26.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 22 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
30.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 9 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
30.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
29.8%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
27.9%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the BalSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:4978% → 93%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
21.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Cywettnie BrownSimilar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
22.2%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
21.0%
[SGUN], NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to MABON, KeVonn (LAMOUR, Dev), PENALTY UB offside (DOUGLAS, Remain) 5 yards to the BALL48, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
20.4%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-7
19.7%
Riley Neal run for 8 yds to the BalSt 36 BALL ST Penalty, tripping (Sam Brunner) to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+44
20.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 44 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.2%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 41 yds · 0:0011% → 13%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
11.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+10
11.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 10 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
12.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
12.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 5 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
12.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 5 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
13.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
13.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 10 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
13.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 2 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
13.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
13.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
12.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Corey HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:4393% → 97%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
6.7%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
6.3%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
6.7%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
6.2%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
6.2%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+11
6.5%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
6.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
6.0%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
6.0%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+8
6.0%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
6.2%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Buff 17Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+34
3.0%
Morgan Hagee 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 0:543% → 11%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
2.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Johnathan Hawkins, broken up by Anthony WinbushSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
2.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 8 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+13
2.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 13 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
2.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 20 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
3.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by David MooreSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
3.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 2 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+39
10.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 39 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:1092% → 92%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
7.9%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
7.6%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+9
7.6%
Riley Neal run for 9 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
6.9%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
6.9%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
6.9%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the Buff 10Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 1
OPP 10
-3
7.4%
Teddy Williamson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 4
OPP 13
0
8.0%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the Buff 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 38 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
2.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 21 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
2.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 17 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm Robinson, broken up by David MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:28
James Gilbert run for 80 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q3 9:16
Riley Neal run for 4 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q2 0:45
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 13 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com