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TOL

Toledo 35 at Eastern Michigan 20

EMU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+11.7EMU 22.2%Brogan Roback pass complete to AntoinePorter for 5 yds for a TD, (PaulFricano KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 20 · Q4 8:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:43 · Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 5 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior−7.2Home team on offense−12.3Score differential−7.0Garbage-time factor−8.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:16: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 63 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +12.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:24: Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +7.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:01: Breck Turner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +10.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:52: Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:43: Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 5 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +11.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 11:17TOL 4th & 5 at EMU 19, tied
    Close callWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    83.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:58TOL 4th & 22 at EMU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:41EMU 4th & 9 at TOL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:18EMU 4th & 12 at EMU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:35TOL 4th & 4 at EMU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.1%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:29EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.0
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:19TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:08EMU 4th & 10 at TOL 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−4.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:11EMU 4th & 10 at TOL 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−6.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:01TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 33, up 8
    Close callPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:16EMU 4th & 12 at EMU 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 8:24TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:16TOL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:24TOL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:01EMU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:52TOL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:43EMU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:37TOL Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1DOWNS
16 plays · 60 yds · 3:4388% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
11.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
11.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
11.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
11.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
11.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
11.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+7
11.8%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
11.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
13.2%
Terry Swanson run for 14 yds to the EMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
13.1%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the EMich 23Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+4
13.1%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the EMich 19Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
13.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Vince CalhounSimilar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+4
13.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 4 yds to the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
14.2%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
14.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 8 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
14.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+5
14.1%
Austin Barnes punt for 52 yds , Corey Jones returns for 5 yds to the Toled 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+26
14.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 16 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
14.5%
Corey Jones run for 3 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
14.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
14.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
14.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Zach Yousey for 10 yds to the EMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
14.4%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-3
14.4%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 28Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 14
OPP 28
-3
14.8%
Logan Woodside sacked by Kwanii Figueroa for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 17
OPP 31
-5
15.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the EMich 36Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 22
OPP 36
0
15.0%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
17.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 14 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
17.3%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the EMich 35Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+15
17.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
50
+1
17.9%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
17.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
17.4%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
17.0%
Austin Barnes punt for 29 yds, downed at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:1881% → 81%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
18.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
18.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
18.7%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
18.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
18.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
17.9%
Logan Woodside run for no gain to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
18.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-5
18.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
18.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
19.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1422% → 21%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.6%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
21.5%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
21.0%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the EMich 20Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+26
20.7%
Austin Barnes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the EASTMICH 39 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the EMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:0880% → 85%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
19.7%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
19.6%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
19.3%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+10
19.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 10 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
15.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 17 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
17.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Brody Hoying) to the EMich 9Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
16.9%
Breck Turner run for 3 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+10
17.1%
Sergio Bailey II run for 10 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
17.2%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the EMich 23Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-3
17.1%
Breck Turner run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 20Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 12
OWN 20
0
16.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+46
16.6%
Austin Barnes punt for 31 yds, downed at the EASTMICH 49 TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
16.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
50
+2
15.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
15.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-2
15.5%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 44Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
16.2%
Nick Ellis punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 3:0118% → 18%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
17.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
17.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Aaron CovingtonSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+5
17.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Breck Turner for 5 yds to the EMich 19Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
17.8%
Austin Barnes punt for 57 yds , Corey Jones returns for no gain to the Toled 20 Corey Jones fumbled, recovered by Toled Corey Jones , return for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
17.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+3
17.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
17.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Damion Jones-Moore for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
18.3%
Nick Ellis punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:3420% → 23%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+44
20.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 44 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
22.6%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
22.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
21.3%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Nigel KilbySimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
22.8%
Paul Fricano 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
23.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:4324% → 31%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
24.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
24.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
24.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
24.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Breck Turner for 18 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
26.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 5 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+5
27.0%
Breck Turner run for 5 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
26.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 6 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
28.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Breck TurnerSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+6
26.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 6 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
28.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
28.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Breck TurnerSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
26.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Isaac HolderSimilar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
31.3%
Paul Fricano 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:4871% → 84%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
28.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 9 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+63
16.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 63 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:4985% → 92%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
15.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 7 yds to the EMich 9Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+6
15.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the EMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
15.2%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Delando (PHELPS, Jalen), PENALTY EMU pass interference (PHELPS, Jalen) 1 yards to the EMU2, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:1811% → 23%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
11.1%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+22
10.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
50
+5
12.2%
Breck Turner run for 5 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+19
12.5%
Breck Turner run for 4 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
13.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Isaac HolderSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+23
12.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 23 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.1%
Breck Turner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
17.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
17.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
18.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 36 yds, downed at the EMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-14
17.8%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the EMich 32 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the EMich 17Similar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 24
OWN 17
+4
17.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 4 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+8
17.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 8 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
16.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dan BuschmanSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
15.7%
Austin Barnes punt for 54 yds , Corey Jones returns for no gain to the Toled 14 Corey Jones fumbled, recovered by Toled Corey Jones , return for 17 yds to the Toled 46 TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Jeremi Powell) to the Toled 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 6:0983% → 95%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
16.9%
Terry Swanson run for 7 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+5
16.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
16.4%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
16.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by Jalen PhelpsSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-5
16.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+13
17.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 13 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
15.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 3 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
14.9%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
15.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
14.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 23 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
13.8%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 10 yds to the EMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
13.8%
Terry Swanson run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+4
13.9%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
4.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 15 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:098% → 22%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
7.9%
Sergio Bailey II run for 10 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
8.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 8 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+17
9.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 17 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
9.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Isaac HolderSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+18
9.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 18 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
10.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 17 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
10.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 5 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
17 plays · 83 yds · 6:0186% → 98%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
13.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 12 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
13.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 8 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+11
12.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 11 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
11.9%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 8
50
+12
11.5%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
11.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 3
OPP 31
-1
11.0%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 32Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+5
11.3%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 5 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
11.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
11.0%
Terry Swanson run for 3 yds to the EMich 18Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
11.5%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
11.0%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
4.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Darryl RichardsSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
1.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 12 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.8%
Brogan Roback run for 4 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
2.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 14 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
2.9%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted DeJuan Rogers return for no gain to the Toled 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0998% → 99%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
1.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
1.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 6
50
-3
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:16
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 63 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q4 8:43
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 5 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q3 6:01
Breck Turner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
+10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com