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NIU

Northern Illinois 30 at Western Michigan 45

WMU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.6WMU 76.2%Christian Hagan 19 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 21 · Q3 10:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:26 · Christian Hagan 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior+20.0Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:09: Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 26 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +6.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:22: Z. Terrell pass,to C. Davis for 8 yds for a TD, (B. Hampton KICK), (B. Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +12.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:04: D. Tucker run for 26 yds for a TD, (B. Hampton KICK), (B. Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +5.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:38: A. Maddie run for 8 yds for a TD, (C. Hagan KICK), (C. Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +7.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:20: Z. Terrell run for 2 yds for a TD, (B. Hampton KICK), (B. Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +6.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 3:01NIU 4th & 6 at WMU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−3.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 3:01WMU 4th & 18 at WMU 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  3. Q3 10:26NIU 4th & 2 at WMU 2, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−6.6
    average punt
  4. Q3 5:21WMU 4th & 6 at NIU 6, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−9.7
    average punt
  5. Q3 2:56NIU 4th & 5 at WMU 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−6.7
    average punt
  6. Q4 15:00NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 39, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:04NIU 4th & 1 at WMU 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−1.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 2:49WMU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:42WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:18NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:09NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:22WMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:04WMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:38NIU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:20WMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 12:42
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+32
89.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 32 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 0:46
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
90.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 20 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.0%
Christian Blake run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 10:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
84.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 26 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8FG
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 3:01
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
81.2%
Christian Hagan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 3:01
3RD & 18
OWN 37
0
82.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael Henry, broken up by Brandon MayesSimilar
Q2 3:01
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
81.6%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 40 yds, downed at the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
81.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3419% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
81.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
80.2%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 2 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
80.7%
Anthony Maddie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
80.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+16
81.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
78.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
78.9%
MADDIE, Anthony pass incomplete to BLAKE, Christia, dropped pass, PENALTY WMU holding (TURNER, Andre) 10 yards to the WMU37, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
78.8%
Jordan Huff run for 22 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
77.9%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the WMich 13 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Eric Assuoa) to the WMich 6Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
77.9%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
77.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 3 yds to the WMich 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
78.8%
Kenny Golladay run for 1 yd to the WMich 2Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
76.2%
Christian Hagan 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12FG
16 plays · 84 yds · 5:0578% → 81%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
78.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 12Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+14
77.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 14 yds to the WMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
78.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
78.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+6
78.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 35 Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
79.1%
TERRELL, Zach pass incomplete to DAVIS, Corey (ISOM, Daniel), PENALTY NIU pass interference (ISOM, Daniel) 15 yards to the NIU46, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
78.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
80.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 16 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
81.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 23 yds to the NoIll 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
81.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
81.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
76.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
80.9%
Butch Hampton 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:2522% → 29%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
78.3%
Jordan Huff run for 16 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+38
77.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 38 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
74.3%
Anthony Maddie run for 11 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
72.7%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
72.7%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 2 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
74.1%
Anthony Maddie pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
71.2%
Christian Hagan 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:3474% → 90%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
74.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+9
73.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 9 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+51
75.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 39 yds to the WESTMICH 23 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Mycial Allen) to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
78.2%
Davon Tucker run for 3 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
90.4%
Z. Terrell pass,to C. Davis for 8 yds for a TD, (B. Hampton KICK), (B. Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2213% → 12%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.8%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
86.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
86.8%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
87.7%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 44 yds , Darius Phillips returns for no gain to the WMich 13 Darius Phillips fumbled, recovered by WMichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 2:1089% → 96%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
88.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 13 yds to the WMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+37
89.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 37 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
90.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
90.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 9 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
96.4%
D. Tucker run for 26 yds for a TD, (B. Hampton KICK), (B. Hampton KICK)Similar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.4%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, offside defense (Mycial Allen) to the NoIll 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:266% → 15%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
93.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+17
93.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 17 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
93.6%
Anthony Maddie run for 7 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
93.1%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the WMich 29Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
92.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+21
93.3%
Anthony Maddie run for 21 yds to the WMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.5%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Shane Wimann, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.5%
Anthony Maddie run for no gain to the WMich 8Similar
Q4 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.9%
A. Maddie run for 8 yds for a TD, (C. Hagan KICK), (C. Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 3:1889% → 98%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+56
89.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 56 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
91.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+9
91.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST down Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
91.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 18 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
91.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 2Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.5%
Z. Terrell run for 2 yds for a TD, (B. Hampton KICK), (B. Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19INT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
95.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST down Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
95.3%
Anthony Maddie run for 4 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
95.3%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+18
95.4%
Anthony Maddie run for 18 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
94.3%
MADDIE, Anthony pass incomplete to GOLLADAY, Kenny, PENALTY NIU pass interference (GOLLADAY, Kenny) 15 yards to the WMU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 25
OPP 44
-3
95.3%
Anthony Maddie run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 28
OPP 47
0
95.5%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 28
OPP 47
+36
95.9%
Anthony Maddie pass intercepted Justin Ferguson return for 36 yds to the WMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2098% → 99%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
97.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
98.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 6
50
0
98.6%
Zach Terrell run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 6
50
0
98.5%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 49 yds, downed at the NoIll 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.2%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
99.2%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+16
99.2%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 16 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+26
99.2%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 26 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Anthony Maddie pass intercepted Robert Spillane return for no gain to the WMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 45Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 14
OWN 45
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:22
Z. Terrell pass,to C. Davis for 8 yds for a TD, (B. Hampton KICK), (B. Hampton KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q4 8:38
A. Maddie run for 8 yds for a TD, (C. Hagan KICK), (C. Hagan KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q2 6:09
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 26 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com