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KENT

Kent State 44 at Buffalo 20

BUF
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreKENT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFUMBLEFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:53 · Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the KntSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 3:35: Jordan Johnson run for no gain Jordan Johnson fumbled, forced by Jon Cunningham, recovered by KntSt James Alexander , return for 15 yds, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +10.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:29: Nick Holley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +11.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:36: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) KENT ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — BUF win probability +10.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:09: Nick Holley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK) — KENT win probability +5.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:45: Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +5.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:24KENT 4th & 7 at BUF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:18BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57KENT 4th & 6 at BUF 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:58BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:14KENT 4th & 4 at BUF 26, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:47BUF 4th & 4 at KENT 17, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:42KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:35BUF 4th & 5 at midfield, down 17
    Close callPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:22BUF 4th & 9 at KENT 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:14KENT 4th & 18 at KENT 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−4.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:05BUF 4th & 10 at KENT 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−4.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:36BUF 4th & 1 at KENT 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−4.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:18BUF 4th & 9 at KENT 39, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:57KENT 4th & 7 at BUF 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 7:40KENT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:29KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:36BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:09KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:45BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:25KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:3649% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+65
51.2%
Nick Holley run for 65 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
51.2%
Justin Rankin run for 1 yd to the Buff 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
51.2%
Justin Rankin run for 3 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-1
51.2%
Justin Rankin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
51.3%
Shane Hynes 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
51.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
51.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 8 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
51.5%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+8
51.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 8 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
51.4%
Kyle Deween punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 1:2348% → 51%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
51.6%
Nick Holley run for 1 yd to the KntSt 17Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+16
51.7%
Nick Holley pass complete to Kavious Price for 16 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
48.6%
Nick Holley run for 67 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
49.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
49.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
48.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
48.6%
Kyle Deween punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
48.5%
Nick Holley run for 3 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-5
48.5%
Nick Holley run for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 20Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+10
48.9%
HOLLEY, Nick pass intercepted by HODGE, Khalil at the KENT25, HODGE, Khalil return to the KENT35, PENALTY UB holding (HODGE, Khalil) 10 yards to the KENT30, 1ST DOWN KENT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
48.4%
Nick Holley run for 1 yd to the KntSt 31Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
48.4%
Justin Rankin run for 4 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+18
48.4%
Nick Holley pass complete to Kavious Price for 18 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
47.9%
Nick Holley run for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
48.0%
Justin Rankin run for 2 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
48.1%
Nick Holley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
48.3%
Derek Adams punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
45.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 9
OWN 0
0
45.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Najee Murray BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-8
45.0%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to MCGILL, Marcus for 8 yards to the UB25 (MURRAY, Najee), PENALTY UB pass interference (MCGILL, Marcus) 8 yards to the UB9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+5
44.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 12
OWN 14
+7
44.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 58 yds , Zaquon Tyson returns for 7 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:0255% → 61%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
45.4%
Nick Holley pass complete to Raekwon James for 6 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+17
44.8%
Justin Rankin run for 17 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
44.7%
Nick Holley run for 9 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+1
44.5%
Nick Holley run for 1 yd to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
44.5%
Nick Holley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
44.6%
Nick Holley run for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+2
44.8%
Nick Holley pass complete to Kavious Price for 2 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
39.3%
Shane Hynes 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 7:2140% → 39%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
40.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+1
40.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+23
39.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 23 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
41.1%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Jon Cunningham for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+5
40.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+14
40.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 14 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
41.6%
Jordan Johnson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 6 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
41.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 5 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
41.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
42.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Nate HolleySimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+9
41.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
42.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the KntSt 18Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
42.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the KntSt 18Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+1
41.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 17Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
39.1%
Adam Mitcheson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
37.5%
Nick Holley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
38.2%
Nick Holley run for 1 yd to the KntSt 32Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
38.9%
Nick Holley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
39.7%
Derek Adams punt for 44 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for no gain to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FUMBLE TD
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
28.8%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain Jordan Johnson fumbled, forced by Jon Cunningham, recovered by KntSt James Alexander , return for 15 yds, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
28.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 20 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
30.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
30.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 5
50
0
30.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 5
50
0
30.1%
Kyle Deween punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Zaquon Tyson at the KntSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0078% → 79%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
21.9%
Justin Rankin run for 4 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
22.0%
Nick Holley run for 5 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+11
22.3%
Justin Rankin run for 11 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
21.4%
Nick Holley pass complete to Ernest Calhoun for 7 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
20.9%
Justin Rankin run for 6 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-21
20.7%
Nick Holley sacked by Brandon Crawford for a loss of 21 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:3825% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
25.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 30 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
27.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
27.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 4 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+4
27.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 4 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
28.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-3
28.0%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
27.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGill, broken up by Najee MurraySimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
26.6%
Adam Mitcheson 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
23.7%
[SGUN], PENALTY KENT false start (SHINSKY, Connor) 5 yards to the KENT17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
23.9%
Kavious Price run for no gain to the KntSt 17Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+2
24.0%
Justin Rankin run for 2 yds to the KntSt 19Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-5
24.5%
Nick Holley sacked by Jordan Collier for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 14Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 18
OWN 14
0
24.9%
Derek Adams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jamarl Eiland at the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:5524% → 22%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
24.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by James AlexanderSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
23.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 3 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+7
24.3%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to MCGILL, Marcus (MURRAY, Najee), PENALTY KENT pass interference (MURRAY, Najee) 7 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
25.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 9 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
26.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
25.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Jamal ParkerSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
25.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 10 yds to the KntSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
26.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm Robinson, broken up by Najee MurraySimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
26.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Juantez McRaeSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
25.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
21.9%
Adam Mitcheson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:3682% → 98%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
17.6%
Kavious Price run for no gain to the KntSt 29Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
17.8%
Nick Holley run for 3 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
18.0%
Nick Holley pass complete to Justin Rankin for 10 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
16.6%
Nick Holley pass complete to Justin Rankin for 30 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
15.8%
Nick Holley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
13.7%
Justin Rankin run for 7 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+6
13.7%
Nick Holley run for 6 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
13.4%
Justin Rankin run for 2 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
13.4%
Nick Holley run for 10 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
13.2%
Justin Rankin run for no gain to the Buff 3Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
13.4%
Nick Holley pass incomplete to Ryan MaloneSimilar
Q3 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.3%
Nick Holley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:535% → 16%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
5.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
5.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
5.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Najee MurraySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
5.1%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 8 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
5.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
5.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+20
5.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 20 yds to the KntSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
5.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 18 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
6.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
6.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
5.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the KntSt 1Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) KENT ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:1793% → 99%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
6.7%
Will Matthews run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
6.7%
Nick Holley run for 8 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+8
6.8%
Nick Holley run for 8 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
6.6%
Nick Holley run for 8 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+5
6.6%
Nick Holley run for 5 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.0%
Nick Holley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 1:182% → 9%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
2.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 26 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
2.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 30 yds to the KntSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
3.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm Robinson, broken up by Najee MurraySimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
3.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+7
3.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the KntSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
3.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
3.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the KntSt 1Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:1896% → 99%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
4.3%
Will Matthews run for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+43
0.8%
Nick Holley run for 43 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
1.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for 9 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
1.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
1.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
1.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 39Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
1.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+8
1.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 8 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22FG
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:5999% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+51
0.7%
Will Matthews run for 51 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
0.6%
Will Matthews run for 6 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-3
0.6%
George Bollas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
0.6%
Will Matthews run for no gain to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
0.4%
Shane Hynes 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23Uncategorized
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
0.7%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
0.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+9
0.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 9 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
0.7%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the KntSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:29
Nick Holley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Hynes KICK)
-11
FUMBLE · Q2 3:35
Jordan Johnson run for no gain Jordan Johnson fumbled, forced by Jon Cunningham, recovered by KntSt James Alexander , return for 15 yds, (Shane Hynes KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q4 11:36
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) KENT ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com