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BALL

Ball State 21 at Central Michigan 24

CMU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:55 · Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior+11.8Home team on offense+3.9Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.6Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:07: Corey Willis 15 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick) — CMU win probability +7.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:07: Damon Hazelton Jr. 9 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Morgan Hagee Kick) — BALL win probability +13.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 13:45: Riley Neal pass intercepted for a TD Josh Cox return for 33 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +18.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:40: James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +16.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:37: Devon Spalding run for 6 yds to the CMich 26 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declined — CMU win probability +20.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34CMU 4th & 11 at BALL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:21CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:04BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:33CMU 4th & 3 at BALL 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:51BALL 4th & 19 at BALL 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:39BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:55CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:14BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00CMU 4th & 23 at CMU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−6.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:34CMU 4th & 17 at CMU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−5.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:02BALL 4th & 8 at CMU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:19CMU 4th & 3 at BALL 46, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−6.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 3:21BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:08CMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:07CMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:07BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:45CMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:40BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
81.3%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 36 yds, downed at the CMich 21Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
81.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 12 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
81.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 1 yd to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
81.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
81.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 6 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:4581% → 80%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
80.6%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to KRAUSE, Matt, PENALTY BALL holding (WALTON, Marc) 10 yards to the CMU31, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
80.6%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+39
80.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 39 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
80.9%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+17
80.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 17 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
80.9%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
80.9%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 0
OPP 6
-5
80.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 11Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
80.0%
Brian Eavey 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 5:1320% → 25%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
80.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Sam Brunner, broken up by Alex BrionesSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
80.0%
Riley Neal run for 9 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
79.9%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
79.9%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
79.9%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
79.7%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
79.6%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+7
79.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
79.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 4 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
79.6%
Riley Neal run for 9 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 1
OPP 32
-7
79.4%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+18
79.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 18 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
79.4%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+13
75.3%
James Gilbert 13 Yd Run (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
76.2%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
76.1%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Brandon Childress, broken up by John Whitman IIISimilar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+23
75.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 23 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
77.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
77.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 2 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
76.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
76.2%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:3725% → 25%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
74.9%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+7
74.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+6
74.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 6 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
74.4%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
74.1%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
74.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
74.9%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 46 yds, downed at the CMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:4273% → 78%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
73.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 18 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
73.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Austin Doan) to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+38
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 38 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
74.4%
Cooper Rush run for 9 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-2
74.9%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+15
74.1%
BALL ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (John Whitman III) to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-3
74.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 13
OPP 19
+2
74.7%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+15
74.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 15 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.9%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.9%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.5%
Devon Spalding 1 Yd Run (Brian Eavey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
74.9%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
75.2%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 36
-4
75.3%
Riley Neal sacked by Nathan Ricketts for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+1
76.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 54 yds , Emmett Thomas returns for 1 yd to the CMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:3975% → 76%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
75.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 8 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+19
75.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 19 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
76.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Brandon Childress, broken up by John Whitman IIISimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
76.1%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+26
75.0%
Cooper Rush run for 26 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
77.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
77.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+5
77.1%
Cooper Rush run for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+2
75.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jahray Hayes for 2 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:3726% → 25%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
73.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
74.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+13
74.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 13 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr., broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
73.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-9
74.3%
Riley Neal sacked by Joe Ostman for a loss of 9 yards to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+4
75.3%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 44 yds , Emmett Thomas returns for 4 yds to the CMich 32 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the CMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:2573% → 84%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+63
73.4%
Devon Spalding run for 63 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
76.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
76.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Aaron TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
83.6%
Corey Willis 15 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Brian Eavey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Joe Austin) to the CMich 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+13
83.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 13 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
83.8%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
83.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 3 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
82.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Zach Oakley) to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 35 yds, downed at the BalSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
83.0%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
82.4%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
82.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Devin Reece, broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
83.6%
Morgan Hagee punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -21 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
84.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 1 yd to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-14
84.2%
Cooper Rush sacked by Kevin Willis for a loss of 14 yards to the CMich 19Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 23
OWN 19
-8
83.2%
Cooper Rush sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 11Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 31
OWN 11
0
82.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 29 yds, downed at the CMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:1918% → 32%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
82.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+3
82.0%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+6
82.2%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
81.2%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+4
81.2%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
81.2%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the CMich 13Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
81.2%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
67.7%
Damon Hazelton Jr. 9 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Morgan Hagee Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
72.8%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 8Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+12
72.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 12 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
73.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Zach Crouch for 17 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
74.2%
Cooper Rush sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+6
72.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 6 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+2
71.9%
Cooper Rush run for 2 yds to the CMich 37 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
71.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
72.0%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
72.0%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
73.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+9
74.3%
Morgan Hagee punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 36 , Emmett Thomas returns for 9 yds to the CMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:5573% → 69%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.8%
Devon Spalding run for 6 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
74.3%
Devon Spalding run for 6 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
74.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (J.P. Quinn) to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 43
0
72.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
72.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 43
-8
70.7%
Cooper Rush sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 35
+2
68.8%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 47 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 2 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
87.4%
Riley Neal pass intercepted for a TD Josh Cox return for 33 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0513% → 34%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.4%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+47
85.6%
James Gilbert run for 47 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
83.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 16 yds to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
83.3%
Teddy Williamson run for 2 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
83.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the CMich 1Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0076% → 71%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
75.5%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
75.4%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-8
74.0%
Cooper Rush sacked by Joshua Posley for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
71.3%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 49 yds, downed at the BalSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
71.1%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+8
71.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+5
70.1%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
70.0%
James Gilbert run for 7 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-10
66.9%
WILLIAMSON, T. rush for 42 yards to the CMU16 (BRIONES, Alex), PENALTY BALL holding (MILLER, Drake) 10 yards to the BALL32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+1
71.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 1 yd to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+16
72.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 16 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
66.4%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
65.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
68.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr., broken up by Amari ColemanSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
71.0%
Morgan Hagee punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23PUNT
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:2574% → 88%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
73.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Zack RyanSimilar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
73.3%
Devon Spalding run for 6 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+6
72.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 6 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
73.9%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
74.1%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+17
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 17 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
77.0%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
86.5%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
86.2%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
88.1%
Jack Sheldon punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24INT
6 plays · 51 yds · 0:2920% → 32%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
80.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 18 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
77.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 8 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
75.8%
Teddy Williamson run for 5 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
74.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Aaron Hepp for 20 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
67.8%
Riley Neal pass intercepted, touchback. Amari Coleman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:0088% → 95%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
88.0%
Devon Spalding run for 6 yds to the CMich 26 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+52
88.2%
Devon Spalding run for 52 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
91.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-2
94.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:37
Devon Spalding run for 6 yds to the CMich 26 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declined
+20.2
TD · Q4 13:45
Riley Neal pass intercepted for a TD Josh Cox return for 33 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q4 11:40
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com