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NIU

Northern Illinois 31 at Ball State 24

BALL
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:51 · Jacob Ambrose punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Aaron Hepp returns for no gain to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 193Home team on offense−20.0Pregame prior+0.7Garbage-time factor−9.0Score differential−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:15: James Gilbert run for 11 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +6.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:16: Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 14 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +6.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:26: Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +12.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:26: James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +25.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:14: Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 22 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +25.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 10NIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 12:41NIU 4th & 1 at BALL 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33BALL 4th & 9 at NIU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:33NIU 4th & 10 at BALL 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:27BALL 4th & 28 at BALL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:10NIU 4th & 11 at BALL 49, tied
    Close callWent for it · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:09BALL 4th & 17 at BALL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:30NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:20BALL 4th & 8 at NIU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.0%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:10BALL 4th & 6 at NIU 46, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%
    23% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:54BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 30, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:41NIU 4th & 10 at BALL 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−8.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:41BALL 4th & 17 at BALL 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:50BALL 4th & 3 at NIU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%−3.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:07BALL 4th & 7 at NIU 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−2.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:51NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 13, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:56BALL 4th & 7 at NIU 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:08NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:15BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:47BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:16NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:26NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:26BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:14NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 2:1944% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.6%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
55.6%
Anthony Maddie run for 18 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.6%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
55.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
50
+4
55.6%
Christian Blake run for 4 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
55.6%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
55.6%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 6 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
55.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
55.6%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+43
55.7%
Christian Hagan 43 yd FG MISSED NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0856% → 57%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
55.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 16 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
56.0%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+11
56.1%
Malik Dunner run for 11 yds to the NoIll 45 Malik Dunner fumbled, forced by Joe Sanders, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+28
56.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 28 yds to the NoIll 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
56.2%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
56.2%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Darian Green, broken up by Jamaal PaytonSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Jamaal PaytonSimilar
Q1 10:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
56.7%
Morgan Hagee 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:5244% → 44%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
56.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+34
56.5%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 34 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
56.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 9 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+12
55.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 12 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
55.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+5
56.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
55.9%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
56.1%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
55.8%
Christian Hagan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
56.1%
James Gilbert run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
50
-10
56.8%
Riley Neal sacked by Austin Smaha for a loss of 10 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 20
OWN 40
-3
56.2%
Darian Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 23
OWN 37
-5
55.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 28
OWN 32
0
55.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ezra Saffold at the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
55.8%
Anthony Maddie run for 20 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
55.1%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
55.2%
Anthony Maddie run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
55.6%
Spencer Tears run for no gain to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 11
OPP 49
-1
56.3%
Clayton Glasper run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
50
-1
57.3%
Darian Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
56.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Darian GreenSimilar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+27
56.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 27 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
57.7%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+12
57.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 12 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
57.7%
Corey Lacanaria pass intercepted Brandon Mayes return for no gain to the NoIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 97 yds · 1:1344% → 50%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
55.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+17
56.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 17 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
55.7%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 2 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+75
50.3%
Anthony Maddie run for 75 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 0:4552% → 59%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
51.6%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
51.2%
James Gilbert run for 15 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
52.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 31 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
58.7%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:1044% → 45%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
55.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 15 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
54.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds Kenny Golladay fumbled, forced by Josh Miller, recovered by BalSt Corey HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:0558% → 64%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
58.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 22 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
58.7%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+18
58.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 18 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.0%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:2638% → 47%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
61.6%
Anthony Maddie run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-15
61.2%
MADDIE, Anthony pass complete to BROWN, D.J. for 15 yards to the BALL48, out-of-bounds (HESTER, Martez), PENALTY NIU illegal block (SCHARPING, Max) 15 yards to the NIU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 21
OWN 22
+26
62.3%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 26 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
60.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
61.5%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+41
62.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 41 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
59.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 14Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+14
53.2%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 14 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0057% → 55%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
56.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 6 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+12
57.2%
James Gilbert run for 12 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
57.3%
KeVonn Mabon run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-2
57.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-4
56.1%
Riley Neal sacked by Mario Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
55.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ezra Saffold at the NoIll 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
54.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 6 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
53.7%
Anthony Maddie run for 1 yd to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+3
53.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to D.J. Brown for 3 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
53.6%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian Blake, broken up by John Whitman IIISimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
54.1%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
54.9%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
56.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:4857% → 58%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
57.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Mayomi OlootuSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+14
57.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 14 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
58.2%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+15
58.2%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to GREEN, Darian, PENALTY NIU pass interference (PAYTON, Jamaal) 15 yards to the NIU46, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
59.7%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 14
50
0
58.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 14
50
+6
58.3%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
58.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0145% → 62%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
54.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
53.8%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+17
54.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 17 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
52.6%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 11 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
52.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+7
52.9%
Anthony Maddie run for 7 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+9
52.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 9 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
51.3%
Anthony Maddie run for 19 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
51.2%
MADDIE, Anthony pass incomplete to GOLLADAY, Kenny, PENALTY BALL pass interference (WALTON, Marc) 9 yards to the BALL2, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 1:1944% → 46%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
44.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
44.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+13
43.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
50
0
47.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
50
+1
46.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+3
45.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Teddy Williamson for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+13
42.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 13 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
46.2%
Morgan Hagee 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
42.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 7 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
43.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+2
41.7%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
41.3%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:1361% → 62%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
38.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
37.5%
Anthony Maddie run for 6 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+25
36.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 25 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
36.6%
Anthony Maddie sacked by Kevin Willis and Zack Ryan for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+2
36.8%
Anthony Maddie run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
37.5%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
38.0%
Christian Hagan 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
40.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+14
40.0%
James Gilbert run for 14 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.0%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
41.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Danny Pinter, broken up by Sean FolliardSimilar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+8
40.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 8 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
41.6%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-10
42.0%
Riley Neal sacked by Sean Folliard for a loss of 10 yards to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 17
OWN 39
-9
38.4%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 37 yds , Ezra Saffold returns for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20INT
12 plays · 77 yds · 0:0062% → 66%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
37.8%
Tommy Mister run for 7 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
36.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
36.9%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
35.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 2 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+13
36.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+28
34.7%
Jordan Huff run for 28 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
33.6%
Anthony Maddie run for 3 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
33.6%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+9
34.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 9 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
33.6%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
33.6%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the BalSt 8Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
34.4%
Anthony Maddie pass intercepted, touchback. Marc Walton return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0036% → 39%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
36.4%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
37.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 11 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
37.6%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
40.2%
KeVonn Mabon run for 2 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
39.5%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
41.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Darian GreenSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
40.4%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
40.9%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
38.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
28.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Shane Wimann for 2 yds Shane Wimann fumbled, forced by Stu Stanley, recovered by BalSt Kevin WillisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23TD
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:4440% → 63%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
39.9%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HAZELTON JR.,D., PENALTY BALL holding (PALAZETI, V.) 10 yards to the BALL47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 20
OWN 47
0
36.8%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+15
36.3%
NEAL, Riley pass intercepted by LURRY, Shawun at the NIU16, LURRY, Shawun return to the NIU16, out-of-bounds, PENALTY NIU pass interference (LURRY, Shawun) 15 yards to the NIU38, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
39.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
41.8%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+5
36.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 5 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
38.9%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
38.9%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+1
36.9%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
38.9%
James Gilbert run for 13 yds to the NoIll 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
38.9%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the NoIll 3Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.3%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:0352% → 80%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
48.2%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+23
49.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 23 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
46.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
43.7%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Josh MillerSimilar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+10
45.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 10 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
20.3%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 22 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
27.6%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
27.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 4 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+12
26.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
29.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 20 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
33.6%
Riley Neal run for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
33.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 5
OPP 38
-2
32.7%
Riley Neal sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
29.2%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 36 yds, downed at the NoIll 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
20.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 7
OWN 7
-1
21.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 6Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+7
22.0%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 7 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
22.5%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Aaron Hepp returns for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 22%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
50
-1
26.5%
Riley Neal sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+4
24.0%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
25.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Mayomi OlootuSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
22.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, downed at the NoIll 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28END OF GAME
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:1886% → 95%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
14.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
14.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 13Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+11
15.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
13.5%
Anthony Maddie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
13.1%
Anthony Maddie run for 5 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+19
13.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 19 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
11.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 15 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
4.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-3
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 13
OPP 37
-3
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:14
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 22 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-25.5
TD · Q4 12:26
James Gilbert run for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
+25.2
TD · Q2 1:26
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com