Try the model
EMU

Eastern Michigan 28 at Bowling Green 25

BGSU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:03 · Austin Barnes punt for 48 yds, downed at the BwGrn 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Pregame prior+10.5Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:10: Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 8 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +22.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:23: Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 7 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +18.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:42: Fred Coppet run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK) — BGSU win probability +21.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 9:33: Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 40 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +18.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:22: Fred Coppet run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Morgan pass to Scott Miller for Two-Point Conversion) — BGSU win probability +27.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:36BGSU 4th & 10 at EMU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:36EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:44BGSU 4th & 14 at BGSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00BGSU 4th & 2 at EMU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:48BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:03EMU 4th & 2 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:08BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:16BGSU 4th & 20 at BGSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−2.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:03EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:31BGSU 4th & 10 at EMU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:54EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:10BGSU 4th & 3 at EMU 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−10.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:10BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 2 at EMU 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−1.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−10.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:00BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:54EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:10EMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:23EMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:42BGSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:33EMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:22BGSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:2464% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
64.4%
Fred Coppet run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 37 Fred Coppet fumbled, forced by Pat O'Connor, recovered by BwGrn James Morgan for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, encroachment ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
64.4%
Fred Coppet run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+43
64.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 43 yds to the EMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
64.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for no gain to the EMich 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
64.4%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
64.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
64.3%
Jake Suder 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
64.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
64.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+8
64.2%
Todd Porter pass complete to John Niupalau for 8 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
64.1%
Breck Turner run for 3 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
64.1%
Breck Turner run for 2 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
64.1%
Todd Porter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:36
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Austin Barnes punt for 56 yds, downed at the BwGrn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
64.0%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+46
64.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 46 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
50
+1
64.6%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the EMich 49Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
64.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo Redding, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-5
64.3%
James Morgan sacked by Pat O'Connor for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
63.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 37 yds, downed at the EMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
63.7%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
63.6%
Todd Porter pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 1 yd to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
63.8%
Todd Porter pass intercepted Trenton Greene return for no gain to the EMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:4665% → 68%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
64.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 15 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
64.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 7 yds to the EMich 9Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+7
64.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 7 yds to the EMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
64.7%
Donovan Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 3Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
64.7%
Donovan Wilson run for no gain to the EMich 3Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
64.4%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the EMich 2Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Donovan Wilson for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0633% → 39%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
67.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
66.9%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the EMich 29Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
67.3%
Todd Porter pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 17 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
66.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
66.2%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+38
66.2%
Todd Porter pass complete to Antoine Porter for 38 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
65.7%
Breck Turner run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.2%
Breck Turner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
64.0%
Fred Coppet run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
64.2%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
64.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Marquis Zimmerman, broken up by Mike BrownSimilar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
63.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Marquis ZimmermanSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
63.2%
Joseph Davidson punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:4837% → 38%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
62.9%
Todd Porter pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 3 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+17
62.8%
Todd Porter pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 17 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
61.6%
Ian Eriksen run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+3
62.3%
Todd Porter pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 3 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+7
62.4%
Todd Porter run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 2
50
0
62.2%
Austin Barnes punt for 48 yds, downed at the BwGrn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+15
64.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 15 yds to the BwGrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
64.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
64.1%
Donovan Wilson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
64.5%
Donovan Wilson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+10
64.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 10 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
65.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
64.8%
James Morgan sacked by Ikie Calderon for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 11
OWN 41
0
64.0%
James Morgan run for no gain to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
63.6%
Joseph Davidson punt for 38 yds, downed at the EMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 51 yds · 0:0037% → 40%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
62.7%
Todd Porter pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 3 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+6
62.7%
Todd Porter pass complete to Antoine Porter for 6 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
62.0%
Breck Turner run for 2 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
62.2%
Breck Turner run for 8 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+2
60.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
61.2%
Todd Porter pass complete to Antoine Porter for 6 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
60.7%
Todd Porter pass incomplete to Dan Buschman, broken up by Alfonso MackSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+20
60.9%
Todd Porter run for 20 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
59.7%
Breck Turner run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
59.6%
Breck Turner run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
59.6%
Ian Eriksen run for a loss of 6 yards to the BwGrn 28 Ian Eriksen fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Gus SchwietermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
64.4%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+9
64.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 9 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
65.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
64.8%
COPPET, Fred rush for no gain to the BGSU41 (RACHWAL, Kyle), PENALTY BGSU holding (STEWARD, Ben) 10 yards to the BGSU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 20
OWN 31
0
63.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 20
OWN 31
0
63.0%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
62.5%
Joseph Davidson punt for 69 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
60.6%
Todd Porter run for 5 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
60.0%
Mathew Sexton run for 9 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
60.0%
Todd Porter pass complete to John Niupalau for 5 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
58.4%
Breck Turner run for no gain to the EMich 39Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
59.2%
Todd Porter pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
60.9%
Austin Barnes punt for 49 yds, downed at the BwGrn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:2563% → 66%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
62.7%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
62.7%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
62.3%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
62.9%
James Morgan run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Ikie Calderon) to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
64.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie Moore, broken up by Kevin McGillSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
63.8%
MORGAN, James pass incomplete to PHOUTHAVONG, D., PENALTY EMU pass interference (GIRALDO, Juan) 15 yards to the EMU44, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
65.7%
James Morgan pass intercepted, touchback. Vince Calhoun return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
57.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
57.8%
Todd Porter run for 5 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
57.6%
Todd Porter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
59.0%
Austin Barnes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Scott Miller at the BwGrn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.6%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
61.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 6 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
62.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
63.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 1 yd to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+11
63.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Vanel Dossous for 11 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
64.9%
Fred Coppet run for 8 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
65.0%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+2
64.4%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
65.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by Vince CalhounSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
64.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete, broken up by Mike BrownSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
63.8%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
61.1%
Joseph Davidson punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Eddie Daugherty at the EMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
58.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Robert Jackson Jr.Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+5
58.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 5 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
59.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q3 10:54
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
60.5%
Austin Barnes punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Scott Miller at the BwGrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:5461% → 68%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
61.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for 2 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
61.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by Justin MoodySimilar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+10
60.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 10 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
63.6%
Marquis Zimmerman run for 8 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+9
64.7%
Donovan Wilson run for 9 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
64.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 17 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
65.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+2
65.6%
Donovan Wilson run for 2 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-1
64.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 15Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
67.7%
Jake Suder 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 1:0035% → 58%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
64.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 2 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+64
64.5%
Isaac Holder pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 64 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
41.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 8 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0049% → 46%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Marquis ZimmermanSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
48.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Fred Coppet for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
46.3%
Joseph Davidson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Eddie Daugherty at the EMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:5054% → 77%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
46.2%
Breck Turner run for 2 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+18
46.2%
Breck Turner run for 18 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
43.5%
Breck Turner run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 7
50
+8
43.1%
Breck Turner run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
43.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+1
41.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+16
42.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (David Konowalski) to the BwGrn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
41.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Eddie DaughertySimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
41.5%
ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to KILBY, Nigel, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (WADE, Tavaraus) 9 yards to the BGSU8, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
41.4%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
22.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 7 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4126% → 50%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
25.7%
Fred Coppet run for 41 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
30.7%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+15
31.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 15 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
31.1%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
29.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 2 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+2
27.9%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the EMich 8Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+4
26.0%
James Morgan run for 4 yds to the EMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
29.8%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the EMich 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
29.8%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Janarvis Pough, broken up by Jason BeckSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
28.1%
KNAPKE, James pass incomplete to REDDING, Teo, PENALTY EMU pass interference (PACE, DaQuan) 1 yards to the EMU2, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.7%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0962% → 87%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
36.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 8 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Robert Jackson Jr.Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
36.0%
Brogan Roback run for 2 yds to the EMich 41Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+14
36.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 14 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
34.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Nigel Kilby for 1 yd to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
34.3%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+40
13.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 40 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 4:0616% → 49%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
15.9%
Fred Coppet run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+11
16.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 11 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
17.2%
Fred Coppet run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
18.8%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
18.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo Redding, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
18.0%
Donovan Wilson run for 3 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+11
18.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 11 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
20.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Donovan Wilson, broken up by Ikie CalderonSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
20.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete, broken up by Jason BeckSimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+12
18.3%
James Morgan run for 12 yds to the EMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
21.4%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the EMich 19Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
21.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+15
19.8%
MORGAN, James pass incomplete to REDDING, Teo, PENALTY EMU pass interference (PHELPS, Jalen) 15 yards to the EMU4, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.4%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds to the EMich 2Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.1%
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Morgan pass to Scott Miller for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24END OF GAME
17 plays · 68 yds · 4:4269% → 95%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
30.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 6 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+4
30.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
30.4%
Breck Turner run for 23 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
26.4%
Breck Turner run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+14
25.6%
Breck Turner run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
24.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (Robert Jackson Jr.) to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
15.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+2
13.7%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
8.7%
ERIKSEN, Ian rush for 4 yards to the BGSU0, clock 01:23, PENALTY EMU holding 10 yards to the BGSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
8.7%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-3
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-1
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:22
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Morgan pass to Scott Miller for Two-Point Conversion)
+27.7
TD · Q3 6:10
Brogan Roback pass complete to Isaac Holder for 8 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)
-22.6
TD · Q4 12:42
Fred Coppet run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Suder KICK)
+21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com