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BUF

Buffalo 3 at Boston College 35

BC
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.9BC 89.9%Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 14 · Q2 6:28
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:28 · Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior+30.7Home team on offense+5.1Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:35: Davon Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +1.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:25: Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:21: Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 11 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +2.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 13:01: Davon Jones run for 11 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST down — BC win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:40: Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 10 at BC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:26BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:03BC 4th & 12 at BC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:25BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:19BC 4th & 3 at BUF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:24BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:20BC 4th & 1 at BUF 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:25BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:28BUF 4th & 10 at BC 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:01BC 4th & 20 at BUF 35, up 18
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:05BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:33BC 4th & 9 at BUF 41, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:03BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 9, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:26BC 4th & 3 at BUF 32, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:14BC 4th & 3 at BUF 3, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 0:35BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:25BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:21BC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:40BC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:14BC Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
93.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+1
93.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Mike Knoll punt for 31 yds, downed at the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
92.7%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
92.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
92.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
92.6%
Malcolm Robinson run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-5
92.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, illegal procedure (-5 Yards) to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
92.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm Robinson, broken up by Isaac YiadomSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 14
OWN 40
+15
92.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 46 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 15 yds to the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
92.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 7 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-1
92.2%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 35Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+6
92.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 6 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
92.1%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 39Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
92.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff Smith BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
92.0%
Mike Knoll punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
91.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+2
91.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 2 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
91.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
91.3%
Kyle Deween punt blocked by Matt Milano blocked by Matt MilanoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
91.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
91.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+1
91.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
91.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
90.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
90.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+2
90.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+14
90.5%
Kyle Deween punt for 51 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 14 yds to the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:2590% → 91%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
89.9%
Davon Jones run for 4 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+5
90.0%
Michael Walker run for 5 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+7
90.1%
Davon Jones run for 7 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+44
90.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Chris Garrison for 44 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
90.4%
Davon Jones run for 3 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
90.4%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+7
89.5%
Patrick Towles run for 7 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.1%
Davon Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3510% → 9%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.5%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
90.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
90.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
90.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 36 yds, downed at the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:0091% → 92%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
90.8%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 44Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+5
90.5%
Myles Willis run for 5 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+10
90.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 10 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
90.9%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
90.8%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+13
90.3%
Patrick Towles run for 13 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
89.6%
Davon Jones run for 2 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
90.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 21 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
90.1%
Davon Jones run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.1%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
91.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 14 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
91.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
91.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-9
91.5%
Tyree Jackson sacked by Harold Landry for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 32 Tyree Jackson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 17
OWN 32
0
91.9%
Kyle Deween punt for 51 yds, downed at the BC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
91.9%
Thadd Smith run for 4 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-10
91.6%
Patrick Towles sacked by Ishmael Hargrove for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 11 Patrick Towles fumbled, recovered by Buff Ishmael Hargrove , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1710% → 10%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
90.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
90.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Johnathan HawkinsSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
90.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
89.9%
Adam Mitcheson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 6:0791% → 94%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
90.7%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 13Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-5
90.6%
Towles,P pass complete to Walker,M for 10 yards to the BC23 (ROBERTS, Tim), PENALTY BC illegal procedure 5 yards to the BC8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 18
OWN 8
0
90.5%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the BC 8Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 18
OWN 8
+27
90.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 27 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
90.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 9 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
91.2%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+38
91.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Davon Jones for 38 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
91.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+6
91.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
91.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
91.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
94.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 11 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
94.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 3 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+10
94.4%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to ROBINSON, Malco, PENALTY BC holding 10 yards to the UB24, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
94.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
94.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
94.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+9
94.4%
Kyle Deween punt for 47 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 9 yds to the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
95.8%
Davon Jones run for 11 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
95.9%
Davon Jones run for 8 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
95.9%
Davon Jones run for 4 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
96.0%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
95.9%
Davon Jones run for 1 yd to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+15
95.8%
Towles,P pass incomplete to Walker,M, PENALTY UB pass interference 15 yards to the UB25, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
95.9%
Willis,M rush for 15 yards to the UB10 (ROBERTS, Tim), PENALTY BC holding 3 yards to the UB28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 13
OPP 28
-3
96.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+5
95.9%
Patrick Towles run for 5 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 11
OPP 26
-9
95.8%
Patrick Towles sacked by Demone Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 20
OPP 35
0
95.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 18 yds, downed at the Buff 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
95.5%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 23 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
95.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jamarl Eiland for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+4
95.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
95.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+5
95.6%
Kyle Deween punt for 46 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 5 yds to the BC 44 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18FUMBLE
11 plays · 44 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
96.5%
Davon Jones run for no gain to the BC 10Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
95.9%
Davon Jones run for 3 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+7
96.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 7 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.5%
Myles Willis run for 3 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
96.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
96.4%
Patrick Towles run for 15 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.7%
Davon Jones run for 5 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+15
96.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 15 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
96.8%
Davon Jones run for 2 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
96.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-4
96.7%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 46 Patrick Towles fumbled, forced by Charles Harris, recovered by Buff Brandon CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:174% → 3%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
96.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
96.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Matt MilanoSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
96.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 44
-2
96.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 42
0
96.8%
Kyle Deween punt for 36 yds, downed at the BC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 4:2898% → 100%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
97.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 10 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+11
97.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 11 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
97.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+43
97.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 43 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
97.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 5 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.6%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 42 Johnathan Hawkins fumbled, forced by Truman Gutapfel, recovered by BC Connor StrachanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.7%
Richard Wilson run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Richard Wilson run for no gain to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
99.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
99.7%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-1
99.7%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Tyler Mabry for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
99.7%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Jamarl Eiland, broken up by Isaac YiadomSimilar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 8
OWN 9
+16
99.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 46 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 16 yds to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24TD
9 plays · 39 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.8%
Richard Wilson run for 2 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
99.8%
Richard Wilson run for 4 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+1
99.8%
Richard Wilson run for 1 yd to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+24
99.8%
Darius Wade pass complete to Colton Cardinal for 24 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.8%
Richard Wilson run for 1 yd to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.8%
Richard Wilson run for no gain to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.8%
Wade,D pass incomplete, PENALTY UB offside 4 yards to the UB3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Richard Wilson run for no gain to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Richard Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:21
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 11 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 9:25
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q4 9:40
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com