Try the model
WIU

Western Illinois 28 at Northern Illinois 23

NIU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreWIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 37 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense−8.5Pregame prior+12.0Score differential−2.7Garbage-time factor−2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:00: Jamie Gilmore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK) — WIU win probability +8.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: WIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:18: Sean McGuire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK) — WIU win probability +19.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:20: Sean McGuire pass complete to Isaiah Lesure for 3 yds for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK) — WIU win probability +15.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:44: Jordan Huff run for 23 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK) — NIU win probability +16.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:15: Kenny Golladay 39 Yd pass from Anthony Maddie (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NIU win probability +25.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11WIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:14WIU 4th & 1 at WIU 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:22NIU 4th & 5 at WIU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:52NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40NIU 4th & 2 at WIU 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−5.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:40WIU 4th & 4 at WIU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:07NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:35WIU 4th & 17 at NIU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:35NIU 4th & 2 at WIU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−1.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:21WIU 4th & 8 at WIU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:17NIU 4th & 24 at NIU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−3.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00WIU 4th & 3 at NIU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%−2.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:13NIU 4th & 11 at WIU 36, down 21
    Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:30WIU 4th & 9 at WIU 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:07NIU 4th & 10 at WIU 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−4.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:07WIU 4th & 16 at WIU 19, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:39WIU 4th & 7 at WIU 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:07WIU 4th & 5 at WIU 40, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:54NIU 4th & 2 at WIU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−2.6
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−15.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:33WIU 4th & 7 at WIU 22, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−2.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:41NIU 4th & 3 at WIU 9, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−7.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−11.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:52WIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:00WIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:40NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:18WIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:20WIU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:44NIU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:15NIU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.5%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
73.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
73.5%
Kenny Golladay run for 8 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
73.5%
Ryan Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.5%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 55 yds, downed at the WIll 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4527% → 27%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
73.3%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-1
73.3%
Steve McShane run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 13Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+10
73.2%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 10 yds to the WIll 23Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+5
73.3%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 44 yds , Shawun Lurry returns for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
73.2%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
73.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
73.2%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the WIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
73.3%
Aregeros Turner run for 5 yds to the WIll 44Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
73.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
73.3%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Justin FitzpatrickSimilar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
73.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3927% → 32%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
72.7%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 16 yds to the WIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
72.5%
Steve McShane run for 1 yd to the WIll 37Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
72.5%
Steve McShane run for 11 yds to the WIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
72.3%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for 4 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+15
72.2%
Stacey Smith run for 15 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
72.2%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 18 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
72.1%
Steve McShane run for 4 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
68.4%
Steve McShane run for 11 yds for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 9 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
69.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.6%
Anthony Maddie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
69.5%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
69.5%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+10
69.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 47 yds , Lance Lenoir returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard line NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the WIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:2632% → 41%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
67.9%
Jamie Gilmore run for 5 yds to the WIll 43Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
67.8%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 6 yds to the WIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
67.7%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Lance Lenoir, broken up by Sean FolliardSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
67.7%
Jamie Gilmore run for 5 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
67.7%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 6 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
67.6%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 37 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
67.5%
Jamie Gilmore run for 1 yd to the NoIll 2Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.5%
Jamie Gilmore run for 1 yd to the NoIll 1Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.3%
Jamie Gilmore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2061% → 65%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
60.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for 22 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
62.0%
Jordan Huff run for 4 yds to the WIll 49Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
62.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 9 yds to the WIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
62.0%
Jordan Huff run for 9 yds to the WIll 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
61.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the WIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
61.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 21 yds to the WIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
61.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the WIll 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
61.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the WIll 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
61.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 2Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 2 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
63.4%
Steve McShane run for 14 yds to the WIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
62.4%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 9 yds to the WIll 48Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
62.2%
Steve McShane run for no gain to the WIll 48Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-3
62.4%
Steve McShane run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIll 45Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
63.1%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 47 yds, downed at the NoIll 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
62.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the NoIll 8Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
62.1%
Ryan Graham run for 4 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+2
61.4%
Ryan Graham run for 2 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
61.2%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:4641% → 42%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.9%
Sean McGuire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+34
59.1%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for 34 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
58.2%
Steve McShane rush for 1 yard to the NIU19 (MAYES, Brandon), PENALTY WIU personal foul (Matt Zobrist) 15 yards to the NIU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+26
58.4%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Tony Harper for 26 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.2%
Sean McGuire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-8
54.7%
Sean McGuire sacked by Jamaal Payton for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
55.7%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Isaiah LesureSimilar
Q2 5:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
58.0%
Nathan Knuffman 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:0058% → 60%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
58.4%
GRAHAM, Ryan pass incomplete to GOLLADAY, Kenny, PENALTY WIU pass interference (J. Fitzpatrick) 15 yards to the NIU35, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
58.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+20
60.6%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 20 yds to the WIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
61.2%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Jordan Huff for a loss of 2 yards to the WIll 40Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-5
60.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WIll 45Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+2
59.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 2 yds to the WIll 43Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+13
59.0%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Shane Wimann for 13 yds to the WIll 30Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
60.3%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for no gain to the WIll 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
54.4%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Lance LenoirSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
54.6%
Steve McShane run for 2 yds to the WIll 32Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
55.0%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Lance Lenoir, broken up by Brandon MayesSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
55.9%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
55.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 21 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
56.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 22
OWN 27
-2
55.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 24
OWN 25
+4
54.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 52 yds , Lance Lenoir returns for 4 yds to the WIll 27Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-15
58.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 24
OWN 25
0
54.8%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros Turner, broken up by Mike VitiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:1048% → 53%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
51.7%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 17 yds to the WIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
49.5%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 22 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
46.8%
Sean McGuire run for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+3
46.6%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 3 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
46.6%
Sean McGuire pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
47.0%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Isaiah Lesure for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4250% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.9%
Steve McShane run for 3 yds to the WIll 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
49.5%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Lance Lenoir for 27 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
47.3%
Stacey Smith run for 8 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-5
47.1%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Isaiah Lesure for 26 yards to the NIU11, PENALTY WIU illegal shift (Isaiah Lesure) 5 yards to the NIU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-1
47.3%
Steve McShane run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+5
47.8%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Steve McShane for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+37
49.1%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 37 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.8%
Sean McGuire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
33.8%
Ezra Saffold run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 8Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+22
33.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 22 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
34.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
34.0%
Ryan Graham pass intercepted Steve Mercado return for 8 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3075% → 90%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
25.3%
Steve McShane run for 6 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+9
25.3%
Steve McShane run for 9 yds to the NoIll 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
25.3%
Stacey Smith run for 5 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
25.3%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Tony HarperSimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.3%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Isaiah Lesure for 3 yds for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
14.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 13 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
15.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+26
16.0%
Ezra Saffold run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (David Griffith) to the WIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
17.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Jordan Huff for no gain to the WIll 35Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
17.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 36Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
16.6%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Aregeros Turner, broken up by Timothy SmithSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
16.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
7.2%
Steve McShane run for 6 yds to the WIll 26Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
7.2%
Steve McShane run for 6 yds to the WIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
7.2%
Steve McShane run for no gain to the WIll 32Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
7.2%
Steve McShane run for 1 yd to the WIll 33Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
7.3%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Lance LenoirSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
7.6%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 49 yds, downed at the NoIll 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:418% → 11%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
8.2%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 5 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-5
8.3%
MADDIE, Anthony pass complete to BLAKE, Christia for 14 yards to the NIU37 (Mike Viti), PENALTY NIU ineligible downfield on pass (HOWARD, Lincoln) 5 yards to the NIU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+19
8.2%
Jordan Huff run for 19 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
8.4%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 9 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
9.1%
Anthony Maddie run for no gain to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+26
8.8%
Jordan Huff run for 26 yds to the WIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
9.8%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 18 yds to the WIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
9.9%
HUFF, Jordan rush for 9 yards to the WIU1 (Brett Taylor), PENALTY NIU holding (HOWARD, Lincoln) 10 yards to the WIU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
-1
9.4%
Anthony Maddie sacked by Khalen Saunders and Brett Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
0
6.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+11
6.6%
Jordan Huff run for 11 yds to the WIll 10Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
11.1%
Christian Hagan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.3%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Isaiah LesureSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.4%
Stacey Smith run for no gain to the WIll 25Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-12
7.8%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 9 yards to the WIU34 (MAYES, Brandon), PENALTY WIU pass interference (Tony Harper) 12 yards to the WIU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+6
7.7%
Sean McGuire run for 6 yds to the WIll 19Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+11
7.9%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 39 , Shawun Lurry returns for 11 yds to the NoIll 30 NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the NoIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 2:2311% → 27%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+38
10.5%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 38 yds to the WIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
26.9%
Jordan Huff run for 23 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
19.9%
Steve McShane run for 5 yds to the WIll 24Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-12
19.7%
Steve McShane rush for no gain to the WIU24 (SANDERS, Joe), PENALTY WIU illegal block (Cal Breedlove) 12 yards to the WIU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 17
OWN 12
0
20.2%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Steve McShaneSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 17
OWN 12
+10
20.9%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Adam Conrady for 10 yds to the WIll 22Similar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
21.1%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:1618% → 47%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
18.3%
Anthony Maddie run for 3 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
18.6%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Darron WheelerSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+11
17.3%
Anthony Maddie run for 11 yds to the WIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
20.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the WIll 39Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
45.1%
Kenny Golladay 39 Yd pass from Anthony Maddie (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
47.4%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Jordan Huff, broken up by Steve MercadoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
31.5%
Steve McShane run for 3 yds to the WIll 12Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+12
31.4%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 12 yds to the WIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
30.7%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Isaiah Lesure, broken up by Shawun LurrySimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
31.0%
Sean McGuire pass complete to Joey Borsellino for 11 yds to the WIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
29.7%
Sean McGuire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
30.3%
Sean McGuire run for 5 yds to the WIll 40Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
28.4%
Sean McGuire pass incomplete to Isaiah LesureSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
31.6%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 35 yds, downed at the NoIll 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:0530% → 27%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+31
29.5%
Kenny Golladay run for 31 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
34.1%
HUFF, Jordan rush for 3 yards to the NIU49 (David Griffith), PENALTY NIU holding (HOWARD, Lincoln) 7 yards to the NIU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 17
OWN 39
+33
30.8%
Jordan Huff run for 33 yds to the WIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
38.3%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the WIll 27Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+3
38.3%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 3 yds to the WIll 24Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+4
35.7%
Anthony Maddie run for 4 yds to the WIll 20Similar
Q4 2:54
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+1
27.4%
Anthony Maddie run for 1 yd to the WIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1785% → 85%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
14.7%
Steve McShane run for 3 yds to the WIll 22Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
13.1%
Sean McGuire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
14.9%
Steve McShane run for no gain to the WIll 22Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
15.1%
Nathan Knuffman punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28DOWNS
10 plays · 52 yds · 1:4621% → 17%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
21.1%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 1 yd to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+23
20.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Ezra Saffold for 8 yds to the WIll 48 for a 1ST down WESTRN ILLINOIS Penalty, personal foul (Pete Swenson) to the WIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
24.9%
Anthony Maddie run for 10 yds to the WIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
26.9%
Anthony Maddie pass complete to Christian Blake for 11 yds to the WIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
25.7%
Anthony Maddie run for 6 yds to the WIll 10Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
26.0%
Anthony Maddie run for 1 yd to the WIll 9Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
21.9%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 3
OPP 9
0
16.7%
Anthony Maddie pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
6.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIll 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:15
Kenny Golladay 39 Yd pass from Anthony Maddie (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+25
TD · Q3 11:18
Sean McGuire run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathan Knuffman KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q4 11:44
Jordan Huff run for 23 yds for a TD, (Christian Hagan KICK)
+16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com