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M-OH

Miami (OH) 20 at Cincinnati 27

CIN
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-9CIN 53.3%Nick Dowd 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 17 · Q3 1:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:07 · Nick Dowd 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+12.4Home team on offense−8.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:08: Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 58 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK) — M-OH win probability +19.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:15: Mike Boone run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +16.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:07: Nick Dowd 35 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +9.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:11: Josh Pasley 23 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +10.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:09: Tion Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +21.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00M-OH 4th & 4 at CIN 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:15CIN 4th & 18 at CIN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:40M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:54CIN 4th & 11 at M-OH 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:28CIN 4th & 1 at M-OH 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−0.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:40M-OH 4th & 9 at CIN 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:13CIN 4th & 6 at M-OH 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−0.5
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:09M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:32M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:04CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:07M-OH 4th & 9 at CIN 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−12.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:11CIN 4th & 5 at M-OH 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−13.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:11M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:02M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:14CIN 4th & 11 at M-OH 20, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:51M-OH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:28CIN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:08M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:15CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:09CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
88.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 24 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
88.4%
Kenny Young run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
88.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
88.4%
Billy Bahl run for 6 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
88.4%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Alonzo SmithSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
88.4%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
88.4%
Justin Martin punt for 30 yds, downed at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
87.7%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
87.7%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
87.7%
Ross Trail sacked by Austin Gearing and Ikeem Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 18
OWN 19
0
87.7%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 18
OWN 19
0
87.6%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 18
OWN 19
0
87.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
87.1%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
87.1%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-8
87.2%
Billy Bahl sacked by Antonio Kinard and Kimoni Fitz for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
87.3%
Justin Martin punt for 35 yds, downed at the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:0487% → 86%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
86.7%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+19
86.8%
Ross Trail pass complete to Devin Gray for 19 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
87.0%
Ross Trail pass complete to Tion Green for 1 yd to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
87.0%
Ross Trail pass complete to Devin Gray for 6 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+8
86.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 8 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
87.1%
Mike Boone run for 18 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
87.1%
BOONE, Mike rush for no gain to the MIAMI9 (MCMULLEN, J.;GEARING, Austin), PENALTY CIN personal foul (CUNNINGHAM, K.) 15 yards to the MIAMI24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 24
0
87.0%
Ross Trail pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+5
86.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 5 yds to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+8
86.7%
Ross Trail pass complete to Tion Green for 8 yds to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q1 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
85.9%
Josh Pasley 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5015% → 17%
Q1 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
85.1%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 8Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.3%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 8 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:1884% → 85%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
83.9%
Tion Green run for 9 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
84.0%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
83.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 4 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+4
84.0%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+6
83.8%
Ross Trail run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
84.1%
Ross Trail pass complete to Tyler Cogswell for 29 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
84.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 15 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
85.0%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
85.0%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
83.1%
Ross Trail pass complete to Tion Green for 5 yds to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q2 14:28
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+11
84.8%
Ross Trail run for 11 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 5:4216% → 20%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
84.5%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 19 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
84.2%
Kenny Young run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
83.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
83.7%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
83.7%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Alonzo Smith for 17 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
83.5%
Alonzo Smith run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+15
83.2%
BAHL, Billy pass incomplete to SHISSO, Sam, PENALTY CIN pass interference (STEPHENS, L.) 15 yards to the CIN19, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.2%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to Ryan Smith, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
83.2%
Kenny Young run for 15 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
83.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the Cincy 3Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
83.2%
Billy Bahl sacked by Davin Pierce for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.6%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
79.8%
Nick Dowd 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
83.0%
Ross Trail pass intercepted Brad Koenig return for no gain to the MiaOh 39 MIAMI OH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brad Koenig) to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
83.2%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+7
82.9%
Ross Trail run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
81.5%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+10
81.6%
Ross Trail pass complete to Brayden Beard for 10 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
81.9%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
81.8%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
81.7%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
80.8%
Sam Geraci punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10INT
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:1223% → 28%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+20
77.0%
Billy Bahl run for 20 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
76.5%
Kenny Young run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+31
76.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 31 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
74.7%
Kenny Young run for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
74.0%
Kenny Young run for 1 yd to the Cincy 27Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+12
72.4%
Kenny Young run for 12 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
71.6%
Billy Bahl pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-18
71.6%
Billy Bahl pass intercepted Cortez Broughton return for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 17 MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Rigg) to the Cincy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:2678% → 81%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
78.2%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 14 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
79.6%
Ross Trail run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
80.0%
Ross Trail pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+10
80.9%
Mike Boone run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+42
80.8%
Josh Pasley 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
75.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
79.8%
MIAMI (OHIO) drive start at 07:09, PENALTY MIAMI false start (DIAMOND, Jordan) 2 yards to the MIAMI2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+1
79.8%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+5
80.0%
Alonzo Smith run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 8Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+2
80.4%
Alonzo Smith run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 10Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
80.5%
Justin Martin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Devin Gray at the Cincy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FUMBLE
11 plays · 42 yds · 0:0077% → 80%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
76.9%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
77.2%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+4
76.6%
Ross Trail pass complete to Tion Green for 4 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
77.2%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
77.6%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
77.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Nate Cole for 6 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.8%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+21
78.4%
Ross Trail pass complete to Devin Gray for 21 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
79.7%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-7
79.7%
Ross Trail sacked by Brad Earnest for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaOh 35 Ross Trail fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Aj Burdine , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.6%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
72.0%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Sam Shisso for 8 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
70.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+4
71.3%
Justin Martin punt for 49 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
73.7%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
73.6%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Bert BirdsallSimilar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
72.4%
Ross Trail pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
71.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
52.8%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 58 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
14 plays · 66 yds · 4:4958% → 75%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
57.6%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+10
57.5%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
59.7%
Ross Trail pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
58.6%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+14
60.4%
Ross Trail pass complete to Devin Gray for 14 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
62.6%
Ross Trail sacked by Doug Costin and Mack Duffin for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+16
59.1%
Ross Trail pass complete to Grant Coleman for 16 yds to the MiaOh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
62.7%
Chad Banschbach run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+4
58.2%
Ross Trail run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
58.2%
Mike Boone run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 4Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+2
58.2%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.7%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:0537% → 47%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
63.2%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Luke Mayock for 22 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
61.8%
Kenny Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+21
63.4%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 21 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
59.8%
Kenny Young run for 4 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-3
59.8%
Billy Bahl sacked by Eric Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
62.3%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
53.3%
Nick Dowd 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
56.2%
GREEN, Tion rush for 2 yards to the CIN27 (ALLEN, Josh), PENALTY CIN holding (STOUT, Ryan) 10 yards to the CIN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
55.8%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
55.4%
Ross Trail pass intercepted Heath Harding return for no gain to the Cincy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · -18 yds · 0:1151% → 48%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
48.9%
YOUNG, Kenny rush for 2 yards to the CIN46 (MINOR, Jaylyin), PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (GODLEVSKE, D.) 15 yards to the MIAMI37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 37
+13
53.1%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
50
-1
49.8%
Alonzo Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-9
52.5%
Billy Bahl sacked by Marquise Copeland for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 34 Billy Bahl fumbled, recovered by Cincy Mark Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:2962% → 68%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
62.1%
Tion Green run for 19 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (Tony Reid) to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
62.1%
Ross Trail run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
62.1%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
57.4%
Ross Trail pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
67.8%
Josh Pasley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
61.4%
Billy Bahl sacked by Kevin Mouhon for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
61.9%
Billy Bahl pass complete to Ryan Smith for 9 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
60.2%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James GardnerSimilar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
62.4%
Justin Martin punt for 37 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 1 yd to the Cincy 34 MIAMI OH Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
14 plays · 64 yds · 5:2866% → 93%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
66.3%
Mike Boone run for 11 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
69.0%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
69.6%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+5
68.9%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 5 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
69.8%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
69.8%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
69.2%
TRAIL, Ross pass incomplete to BOONE, Mike, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (MOSES, Paul) 6 yards to the MIAMI31, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
71.3%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 9 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
71.3%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
69.5%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
71.3%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 11 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
71.3%
Chad Banschbach run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
71.3%
TRAIL, Ross pass complete to COLE, Nate for loss of 3 yards to the MIAMI8 (REID, Tony), PENALTY MIAMI offside defense (MCMULLEN, J.) 3 yards to the MIAMI2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.6%
Tion Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 10%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
86.2%
Alonzo Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
85.8%
Billy Bahl pass incomplete to James Gardner, broken up by Davin PierceSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-5
87.2%
MIAMI OH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 12
OWN 37
0
89.2%
Billy Bahl run for no gain to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
89.6%
Justin Martin punt for 16 yds, downed at the Cincy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:3794% → 96%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
94.0%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
93.9%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 7
50
-5
93.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+36
95.2%
Ross Trail pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 36 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+1
96.1%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
95.8%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+4
96.4%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 27END OF HALF
1 play · 18 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
93.3%
Billy Bahl pass complete to James Gardner for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down lat. to Jared Murphy for no gain to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down lat. to Ryan Smith for 10 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down lat. to James Gardner for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down lat. to Kenny Young for 2 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down to Sam Shisso for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:09
Tion Green run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
+21.3
TD · Q3 9:08
Billy Bahl pass complete to Jared Murphy for 58 yds for a TD, (Nick Dowd KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q3 4:15
Mike Boone run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
+16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com