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GASO

Georgia Southern 31 at Western Michigan 49

WMU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:07 · Matt Flynn punt for 47 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 21 yds to the WMich 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior+9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:14: Tyler Bass kickoff for 65 yds , Darius Phillips return for 100 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +8.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:52: Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 8 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +9.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:11: Favian Upshaw pass complete to Myles Campbell for 33 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +6.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:18: Favian Upshaw pass intercepted for a TD Darius Phillips return for 70 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +11.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:56: L.A. Ramsby run for 13 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +6.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:07GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02WMU 4th & 2 at GASO 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:27GASO 4th & 6 at WMU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:27WMU 4th & 1 at GASO 11, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−1.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−6.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:33GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.0
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:18GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 30, down 25
    Close callPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:18WMU 4th & 11 at GASO 11, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:07WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:03GASO 4th & 1 at WMU 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−1.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    -1.5%−6.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:28WMU 4th & 16 at WMU 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 7:36WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:02GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:52WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:14WMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:52WMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:11GASO Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:35WMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:18WMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:07GASO Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:56GASO Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:11WMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the WMich 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington ThompsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
59.1%
James Coleman punt for 45 yds, downed at the GeoSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
59.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
59.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
59.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 2
OWN 35
-5
59.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+21
59.2%
Matt Flynn punt for 47 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 21 yds to the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:5760% → 63%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
59.5%
Zach Terrell run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
59.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
59.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington ThompsonSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
59.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
59.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
59.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
59.8%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+15
59.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 15 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
59.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 4Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:3438% → 42%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
61.8%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+4
61.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+12
62.0%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 12 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
61.5%
Favian Upshaw run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+7
61.2%
Favian Upshaw run for 7 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
61.1%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+44
57.7%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Wesley Fields for 44 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1059% → 65%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
59.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 25 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
60.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
60.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+2
60.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+7
59.5%
Zach Terrell run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
60.6%
TERRELL, Zach sacked for loss of 9 yards to the GS41 (D. Roper), PENALTY GS holding 10 yards to the GS22, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
60.6%
BOGAN, Jamauri rush for no gain to the GS22 (I. Gallon), PENALTY WMU holding (MOTON, Taylor) 10 yards to the GS32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 32
-5
60.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 25
OPP 37
+37
65.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 37 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:2537% → 39%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
63.3%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+14
63.3%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Myles Campbell for 14 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
62.6%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
62.5%
Favian Upshaw run for 6 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+12
62.5%
Wesley Fields run for 12 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
61.7%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 23Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+6
61.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 6 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
62.5%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to BJ Johnson III, broken up by Sam BealSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
60.7%
Younghoe Koo 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
68.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
69.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 20 Kevin Ellison fumbled, forced by Justin Ferguson, recovered by WMich Eric AssuoaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3572% → 79%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
71.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
71.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 4 yds to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
71.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 3 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+3
70.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 8 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 4:4122% → 27%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
78.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
78.2%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+3
78.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
78.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
77.3%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
77.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
78.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Montay Crockett, broken up by Darius PhillipsSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
81.0%
F. Upshaw pass incomplete to B. Johnson (BEAL, Sam), PENALTY WMU pass interference (BEAL, Sam) 15 yards to the WMU45, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
79.4%
Favian Upshaw run for 2 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
79.6%
F. Upshaw pass incomplete to M. Campbell, PENALTY WMU holding 10 yards to the WMU33, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
73.0%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Myles Campbell for 33 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 1:3676% → 85%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
75.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (-8 Yards) to the WMich 9Similar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
75.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 12 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
75.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis, broken up by Bernard DawsonSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+29
75.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
50
+9
76.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 9 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+6
77.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 6 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
85.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 35 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:0216% → 16%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
83.9%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
84.1%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+2
84.2%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
86.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+6
86.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 6 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14INT TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4216% → 5%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
84.4%
Favian Upshaw run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
83.7%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+8
83.8%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
83.5%
Favian Upshaw run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+70
94.8%
Favian Upshaw pass intercepted for a TD Darius Phillips return for 70 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
95.0%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
94.8%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
95.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:3097% → 98%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
96.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
50
+1
96.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+24
96.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jamauri Bogan for 24 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
96.9%
FRANKLIN, J rush for 2 yards to the GS23 (J. Ellison), PENALTY WMU illegal block (OKORAFOR, C) 15 yards to the GS40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+9
96.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 9 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+23
96.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 23 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
96.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
96.8%
Zach Terrell run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
96.9%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
98.0%
Butch Hampton 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:113% → 8%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
97.0%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
97.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+9
97.0%
Matt Breida run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Matt BreidaSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
97.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
97.0%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.0%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the WMich 44 Kevin Ellison fumbled, forced by Robert Spillane, recovered by GeoSo Kevin EllisonSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
92.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 44 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
94.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
94.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the WMich 33Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
93.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WMich 28Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
93.7%
James Coleman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Montay Crockett at the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 5:196% → 13%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
94.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+12
94.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
93.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
93.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
94.8%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
94.7%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-5
94.0%
K. Ellison pass incomplete to M. Crockett, PENALTY GS false start (9) 5 yards to the WMU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+1
94.7%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the WMich 37 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
94.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 13 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
94.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 5 yds to the WMich 19Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-10
94.0%
W. Fields rush for 1 yard to the WMU18 (ASSUOA, Eric), PENALTY GS holding (M. Magana) 10 yards to the WMU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+5
94.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+9
94.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 9 yds to the WMich 15Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
94.4%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the WMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
94.0%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the WMich 13Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
87.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 13 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD
19 plays · 87 yds · 7:4591% → 99%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
91.3%
Zach Terrell run for 21 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
91.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Jarvion FranklinSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
91.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
91.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
92.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
92.2%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey Davis WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+19
91.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 19 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
92.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
92.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+1
94.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
94.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+5
94.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+9
94.5%
TERRELL, Zach pass incomplete to DAVIS, Corey, PENALTY GS personal foul (V. Harley) 9 yards to the GS8, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
94.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
94.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 7 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Myles CampbellSimilar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
98.4%
LaBaron Anthony pass intercepted Justin Ferguson return for no gain to the WMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 14
OWN 36
-2
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 0:28
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
99.2%
James Coleman punt for 36 yds, downed at the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.4%
LaBaron Anthony sacked by Keion Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 29 LaBaron Anthony fumbled, recovered by WMich Nathan Braster , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:18
Favian Upshaw pass intercepted for a TD Darius Phillips return for 70 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 7:52
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 8 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 10:14
Tyler Bass kickoff for 65 yds , Darius Phillips return for 100 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com