2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:19 · Michael Farkas punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacob Henderson at the GrdWb 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:48: Tyrell Maxwell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Paul Schumacher KICK) — GWEB win probability +1.4 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:13: Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Kyle Belack for 13 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +3.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:24: Khalil Lewis run for 31 yds for a TD, (Paul Schumacher KICK) — GWEB win probability +4.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:24: Bo Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:42: Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Willie Jackson IV for 28 yds for a TD, (Paul Schumacher KICK) — GWEB win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GWEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 15:00OHIO 4th & 2 at GWEB 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.0%56% to convertField goal95.0%−0.179% to makePunt94.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:41OHIO 4th & 1 at GWEB 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.1%71% to convertField goal93.0%−0.181% to makePunt92.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 15:00GWEB 4th & 1 at OHIO 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.7%70% to convertField goal7.2%−0.534% to makePunt7.2%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:35OHIO 4th & 1 at GWEB 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.1%71% to convertField goal91.7%−0.462% to makePunt90.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 8:03GWEB 4th & 11 at GWEB 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q2 4:13OHIO 4th & 3 at GWEB 13, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.5%50% to convertField goal93.3%−0.285% to makePunt91.2%−2.3average punt
- Q2 1:26OHIO 4th & 4 at GWEB 18, up 23Close callKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call97.5%−<0.179% to makePunt97.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 11:24GWEB 4th & 1 at OHIO 31, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.6%71% to convertField goal2.0%−0.554% to makePunt1.8%−0.8average punt
- Q3 11:19OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 33, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q3 10:30GWEB 4th & 5 at GWEB 29, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q4 13:37GWEB 4th & 15 at GWEB 41, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GWEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:21OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.3%97% to makeGo for two94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:48GWEB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.8%97% to makeGo for two6.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:18OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:09OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:13OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:24GWEB Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.6%97% to makeGo for two4.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:24OHIO Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:42GWEB Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.1%97% to makeGo for two1.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3996% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 4 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
95.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Troy Mangen for 18 yds to the GrdWb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+4
95.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the GrdWb 18Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
95.5%
WHITE, Papi rush for 8 yards to the GWU7, out-of-bounds (GETER, C.), PENALTY OHIO personal foul 10 yards to the GWU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
95.0%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 17 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 2TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:295% → 7%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
94.8%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Jacob Henderson for 17 yds to the GrdWb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+3
94.8%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Jonathan Blackmon for 3 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
94.7%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Mike Estes for 2 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+34
94.7%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Jonathan Blackmon for 34 yds to the Ohio 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD15 plays · 79 yds · 6:2394% → 94%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
93.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kyle Belack for 14 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
93.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 12 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
93.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+5
93.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 5 yds to the GrdWb 47Similar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
93.9%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Troy Mangen, broken up by Tysean CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 4DOWNS9 plays · 31 yds · 0:147% → 7%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
93.0%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Jonathan Blackmon for 5 yds to the GrdWb 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+1
92.7%
Jonathan Blackmon run for 17 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST down GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, Offensive holding (-16 Yards) to the GrdWb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:2693% → 94%
Q2 11:35
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
92.5%
MAXWELL, Quinto pass incomplete to BROWN, Jarid, PENALTY GWU holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
50
+14
92.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jarid Brown for 14 yds to the GrdWb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
94.4%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 17 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
OHIODrive 7TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:5694% → 97%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+48
94.0%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 48 yds to the GrdWb 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-7
94.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Mason Morgan for 8 yds to the GrdWb 12 OHIO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the GrdWb 27Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+6
94.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jordan Reid for 6 yds to the GrdWb 13Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+13
97.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Kyle Belack for 13 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 8SF5 plays · -11 yds · 0:483% → 3%
Q2 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OWN 20
+21
97.2%
Andrew Komornik punt for 63 yds , Elijah Ball returns for 21 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9MISSED FG10 plays · 44 yds · 1:4398% → 98%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
97.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Vinny Emanuele for 7 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
97.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kyle Belack for 6 yds to the GrdWb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
97.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 6 yds to the GrdWb 18Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
97.7%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Mason Morgan, broken up by Jaylan FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
GWEBDrive 11TD8 plays · 77 yds · 3:303% → 7%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+8
97.4%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Jacob Henderson for 8 yds to the GrdWb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.7%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian Smith, broken up by Triston DozierSimilar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
94.5%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Kyle Belack, broken up by Jeffrey PeguesSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
94.3%
Michael Farkas punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacob Henderson at the GrdWb 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+1
93.9%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Mike Estes for 1 yd to the GrdWb 29Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
94.1%
Tyrell Maxwell pass incomplete to Triston Dozier, broken up by Javon HaganSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+4
94.4%
Andrew Komornik punt for 48 yds , Randy Stites returns for 4 yds to the Ohio 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD12 plays · 73 yds · 3:4595% → 99%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
95.2%
Greg Windham sacked by P.J. Fuimaono for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 33 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 16
OWN 0
+10
95.0%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 10 yds to the Ohio 43 GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Ohio 43Similar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
95.3%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jarid Brown for 13 yds to the GrdWb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
95.3%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Jaylan FosterSimilar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+28
95.1%
Greg Windham pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 28 yds to the GrdWb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 15FUMBLE7 plays · 46 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 5:17
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+18
98.3%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Mike Estes for 18 yds to the GrdWb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
98.2%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Mike Estes for 20 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-4
98.1%
Tyrell Maxwell sacked by Kevin Robbins and Tom Strobel for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 44Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+5
98.2%
Tyrell Maxwell run for 5 yds to the Ohio 33 Tyrell Maxwell fumbled, forced by Tarell Basham, recovered by Ohio Casey SaylesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16INT8 plays · 57 yds · 2:3999% → 99%
Q3 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
98.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Jerrid Marhefka for 9 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+22
98.9%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Troy Mangen for 22 yds to the GrdWb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
99.1%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Mason Morgan for 8 yds to the GrdWb 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 10
0
99.1%
Quinton Maxwell pass intercepted, touchback. Jaylan Foster return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
OHIODrive 18PUNT10 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 10:54
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
99.2%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Elijah Ball for 15 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.3%
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Connor Brown for 7 yds to the GrdWb 44Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-5
99.3%
MAXWELL, Quinto pass incomplete to MARHEFKA, Jerri (FOSTER, J.), PENALTY OHIO illegal formation 5 yards to the GWU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-6
99.2%
Quinton Maxwell sacked by P.J. Fuimaono for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 43 Quinton Maxwell fumbled, recovered by Ohio Quinton Maxwell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 10:54
4TH & 33
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jacob Henderson at the GrdWb 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 19TD10 plays · 85 yds · 3:391% → 4%
Q4 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+8
99.5%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Adonus Lee for 8 yds to the GrdWb 24Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.4%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Jacob Henderson for 8 yds to the GrdWb 35Similar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
96.3%
Tyrell Maxwell pass complete to Willie Jackson IV for 28 yds for a TD, (Paul Schumacher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20END OF GAME5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:24
Khalil Lewis run for 31 yds for a TD, (Paul Schumacher KICK)
-4
TD · Q3 5:24
Bo Hardy run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 4:13
Quinton Maxwell pass complete to Kyle Belack for 13 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+3.1