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CMU

Central Michigan 35 at Virginia 49

UVA
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:48 · Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:34: Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK) — UVA win probability +13.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:26: Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 85 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +12.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:21: Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Amari Coleman return for 47 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 14 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +22.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:36: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 82 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK) — UVA win probability +28.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:59UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:15CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:42CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:02CMU 4th & 12 at UVA 49, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:25CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:51CMU 4th & 10 at UVA 36, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:53UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 38, up 21
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:19UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:34CMU 4th & 9 at UVA 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−8.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:21UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54UVA 4th & 4 at CMU 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−4.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:50CMU 4th & 11 at UVA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−3.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:36CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:42UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:02UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:25UVA Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:34UVA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:06CMU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:26CMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:21CMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:36UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:00UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:05UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:48CMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
43.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete, broken up by Zach BradshawSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
43.9%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
43.9%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
43.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
44.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
44.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
44.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
44.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
44.3%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-7
44.3%
Cooper Rush run for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
44.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for no gain to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+7
44.5%
Jack Sheldon punt for 35 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 7 yds to the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:2945% → 48%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
45.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 13 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
45.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
45.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 7 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+9
45.4%
Albert Reid run for 9 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
48.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
47.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
46.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
47.0%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+5
47.3%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 43 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 5 yds to the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:0549% → 55%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
48.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 16 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
48.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 13 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
49.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
49.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Nathan RickettsSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+44
48.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 44 yds to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.9%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds for a TD, (R. Burney Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+22
52.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for 22 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
52.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Devon Spalding, broken up by Jack PowersSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-12
52.5%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the CMich 44 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 22
OWN 41
+10
53.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 10 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
53.1%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 48 yds, downed at the Virg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
11 plays · 99 yds · 3:5057% → 70%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
56.8%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+9
56.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
57.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 9 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
57.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
57.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 18 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
57.9%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
57.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+36
57.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 36 yds to the CMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
61.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
61.7%
Albert Reid run for 2 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
70.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete, broken up by Micah KiserSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.2%
Devon Spalding run for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
69.9%
Cooper Rush run for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+15
70.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 35 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 15 yds to the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1574% → 88%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
74.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+7
74.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 7 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
74.2%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Zaccheaus, O (Sean Bunting), PENALTY CMU pass interference (Sean Bunting) 15 yards to the CMU16, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
74.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+7
74.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the CMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
16 plays · 66 yds · 6:2814% → 18%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
85.8%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
85.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+9
85.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 9 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
85.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kelvin Rainey) to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.3%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
85.2%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
85.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+10
92.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 10 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
91.1%
Cooper Rush run for 6 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+10
91.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 10 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
91.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
90.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:1387% → 87%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
86.7%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 6 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
86.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
86.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
88.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Josh CoxSimilar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
87.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:1614% → 27%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
85.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete, broken up by Jack PowersSimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+85
73.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 85 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:0775% → 76%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.7%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
74.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Albert Reid for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
74.6%
Kurt Benkert run for 2 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
74.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.4%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
75.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 56 yds, downed at the CMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
78.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
75.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+10
75.8%
Albert Reid run for 10 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
76.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 16 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
76.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-7
76.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the VIRGINIA 43 VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jackson Matteo) to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
74.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 35 yds, downed at the CMich 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 42
0
75.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:1423% → 21%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
76.8%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
76.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Zach BradshawSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+20
77.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 20 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
75.2%
Jahray Hayes run for 6 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+13
74.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 13 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
74.3%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+9
73.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 9 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
72.8%
Devon Spalding run for 13 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
72.8%
Devon Spalding run for 1 yd to the Virg 11Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
72.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Jack PowersSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
74.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
79.5%
Brian Eavey 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18INT TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:1384% → 75%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
83.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 32 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.8%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+47
74.7%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Amari Coleman return for 47 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.3%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
72.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
71.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
70.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 57 yds, downed at the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 5:1531% → 55%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
68.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 14 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.3%
Devon Spalding run for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
65.8%
Devon Spalding run for 7 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.4%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
66.9%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 7 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+24
69.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 24 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
66.6%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
66.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+13
69.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 13 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
66.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the Virg 14Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
44.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 14 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
50
0
60.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Otis KearneySimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
50
+6
60.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 6 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
60.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
58.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
51.5%
Devon Spalding run for 4 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+11
51.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Eric Cooper for 11 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+28
50.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 28 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
46.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-5
45.9%
Jahray Hayes run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
48.8%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Eric CooperSimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
52.0%
Jack Sheldon punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23TD
2 plays · 86 yds · 0:3757% → 86%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
56.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+82
85.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 82 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Joe BacciSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.1%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
81.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Eric Cooper, broken up by Juwan MoyeSimilar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
82.6%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt for 33 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for no gain to the Virg 30 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:3787% → 97%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
86.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 13 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
87.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+11
88.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
88.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 13 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
89.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+20
89.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 20 yds to the CMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Albert Reid for 5 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:364% → 3%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+19
96.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 19 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.6%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
95.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.8%
Cooper Rush pass intercepted Kareem Gibson return for 5 yds to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27TD
1 play · 53 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
99.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 53 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 3:171% → 3%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
99.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 13 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Joe Austin) to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
99.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 5 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
99.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 8 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
99.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 18 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete, broken up by Myles RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-6
99.3%
Cooper Rush run for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+24
99.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 24 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Austin Stewart for 6 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+25
99.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 25 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
50
-2
98.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-2
98.7%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:36
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 82 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK)
+28.9
TD · Q4 14:54
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 14 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
-22
TD · Q2 10:34
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com