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BGSU

Bowling Green 3 at Memphis 77

MEM
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:59 · Joseph Davidson punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior+28.6Home team on offense+18.6Score differential+13.9Blowout margin+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Garbage-time factor+4.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:28: Jake Suder 30 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:38: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +2.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:48: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sam Craft for 43 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +2.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 1:26: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +3.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 12:39: Riley Ferguson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BGSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 13:01MEM 4th & 1 at BGSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:28BGSU 4th & 12 at MEM 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:20MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:28BGSU 4th & 4 at MEM 46, down 11
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 17, down 32
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:59BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 28, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:50MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 33, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:54BGSU 4th & 4 at MEM 45, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:54BGSU 4th & 2 at MEM 31, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:00BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 33, down 46
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:29BGSU 4th & 9 at MEM 35, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 1 at MEM 20, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:11BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 45, down 60
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:24MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 41, up 60
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:35BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 28, down 67
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:57BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 41, down 74
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:05MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 29, up 74
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:48BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 32, down 74
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:43MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 24, up 74
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:26BGSU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 74
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:53MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 5, up 74
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 13:01MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:28MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:38MEM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:48MEM Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:26MEM Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:39MEM Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 6:00MEM Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 3:29MEM Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:11MEM Touchdown, up 59 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:35MEM Touchdown, up 66 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:57MEM Touchdown, up 73 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 1:5988% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
87.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Trevon Tate) to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
87.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony Miller, broken up by Alfonso MackSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+16
87.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 16 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
87.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 27 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
87.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
87.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 5 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
87.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue, broken up by Brandon HarrisSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
87.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 19 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:3312% → 13%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.7%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+40
87.6%
James Knapke pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for 40 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
87.5%
Fred Coppet run for 4 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+12
87.5%
James Knapke pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 12 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
87.5%
Ronnie Moore pass complete to Scott Miller for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+3
87.6%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
87.6%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+30
86.9%
Jake Suder 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-11
87.0%
Riley Ferguson sacked by David Konowalski for a loss of 11 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 21
OWN 37
+6
86.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 15
OWN 43
0
86.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for no gain to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
86.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
87.3%
James Knapke pass intercepted for a TD Genard Avery return for 28 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.3%
Josh Cleveland run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
87.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 1 yd to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
87.2%
Josh Cleveland run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
87.1%
James Knapke pass complete to Scott Miller for 12 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
87.0%
Josh Cleveland run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+9
87.2%
James Knapke pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 9 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
87.0%
James Knapke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
87.2%
Joseph Davidson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 0:5687% → 90%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
87.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 8 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+42
87.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for 42 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
89.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
Q1 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
89.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Gabe Kuhn) to the BwGrn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
89.7%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
89.7%
James Knapke pass intercepted Chris Morley return for no gain to the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:1490% → 92%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
89.7%
TAYLOR, Patrick rush for 5 yards to the MEMPHIS40 (KONOWALSKI, D), PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (TATE, Trevon) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+10
89.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 10 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
89.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
50
+5
90.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sam Craft for 5 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
89.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+15
89.8%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, John, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (MACK, Alfonso) 15 yards to the BGSU28, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Mechane SladeSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-15
89.9%
CRAFT, Sam rush for 5 yards to the BGSU23 (GREENE, Trenton), PENALTY MEMPHIS personal foul (ROBERSON, Chris) 15 yards to the BGSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 25
OPP 43
+43
91.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sam Craft for 43 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
91.5%
James Knapke pass intercepted Dontrell Nelson return for no gain to the BwGrn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
95.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:185% → 5%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
95.0%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+5
94.9%
Josh Cleveland run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 2
OWN 17
0
94.8%
Josh Cleveland run for no gain to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
95.2%
Joseph Davidson punt for 68 yds, downed at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 2:0595% → 97%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
95.2%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 10Similar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+10
95.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 10 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+22
95.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, roughing passer (Terrance Bush) to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
95.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 17 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
95.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to John WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+26
95.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 26 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Riley Ferguson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:403% → 3%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.1%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.0%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
97.1%
James Knapke pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.3%
Joseph Davidson punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
97.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 9 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+5
97.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to John WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-3
97.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+10
97.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 10 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
96.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Scott Miller at the BwGrn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:422% → 3%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
97.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for 16 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 5 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+1
97.8%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
97.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+6
98.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
98.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Teo Redding for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
98.3%
Fred Coppet run for 1 yd to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
97.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Teo ReddingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:3398% → 99%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 9 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+60
98.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 60 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.0%
James Morgan run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for 6 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
98.8%
Fred Coppet run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
98.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Marquis ZimmermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
99.0%
Anthony Miller run for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+7
99.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 7 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+31
99.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Roderick Proctor for 31 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Marquis Zimmerman for 13 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.2%
Fred Coppet run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
99.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 6 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
99.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Deric Phouthavong for 15 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
99.0%
Josh Cleveland run for 1 yd to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
99.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Janarvis PoughSimilar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
99.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
98.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Marquis ZimmermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-2
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 9 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
99.3%
Fred Coppet run for 15 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
99.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Scott Miller for 7 yds to the MEMPHIS 44 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, targeting (DeMarco Montgomery) to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.2%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+9
99.3%
Fred Coppet run for 9 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
98.9%
Fred Coppet run for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:2299% → 100%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Jason Stewart pass incomplete to Mechane SladeSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 9 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
99.4%
Jason Stewart run for 4 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Jason Stewart pass incomplete to Doroland DorceusSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+34
99.4%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 19 yds to the MEMPHIS 43 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, targeting (Tavarus Wade) to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+23
99.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 23 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 6 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott MillerSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.7%
MORGAN, James pass incomplete to MILLER, Scott, PENALTY MEMPHIS face mask (ROBINSON, Noah) 15 yards to the BGSU46, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
99.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
99.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott Miller, broken up by Tye NorthernSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
99.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Scott Miller BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+4
99.7%
Joseph Davidson punt for 43 yds , John Williams returns for 4 yds to the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.6%
Jason Stewart run for 5 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+6
99.6%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Jae'Lon Oglesby for 6 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Sam Craft run for no gain to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
99.6%
Sam Craft run for 13 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
99.6%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the Memph 43 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 17
OWN 33
-6
99.6%
Sam Craft run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 23
OWN 27
+11
99.6%
Jason Stewart pass complete to Tony Pollard for 11 yds to the Memph 38Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+3
99.6%
Jason Stewart run for 3 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Scott Miller at the BwGrn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Josh Cleveland run for no gain to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+26
99.8%
James Morgan pass intercepted Jahmahl Pardner return for 26 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:27100% → 100%
Q3 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.8%
Jason Stewart run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Fred Coppet run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Ronnie MooreSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-14
99.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tim McAuliffe) to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+14
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Ronnie Moore for 14 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 4:22100% → 100%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.8%
Jason Stewart run for 1 yd to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
Jason Stewart run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+19
99.8%
Tony Pollard run for 19 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.8%
Sam Craft run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
99.8%
Sam Craft run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+38
99.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 38 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Jason Stewart run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Donovan Wilson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
99.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Deric Phouthavong, broken up by Khalil JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Joseph Davidson punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 1 yd to the Memph 21Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 3 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 5 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Scott Miller at the BwGrn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+2
100.0%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-1
100.0%
Terence Stephens Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 44 yds , Roderick Proctor returns for no gain to the Memph 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for no gain to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for 2 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-2
99.9%
Tearris Wallace run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Spencer Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Scott Miller at the BwGrn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
100.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 3 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
100.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Terence Stephens Jr. for no gain to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+11
100.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Hunter Folkertsma for 11 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
100.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Janarvis Pough for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 7
50
0
100.0%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Janarvis PoughSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 7
50
0
100.0%
James Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:26
4TH & 7
50
0
100.0%
Joseph Davidson punt for 49 yds, downed at the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 34PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
100.0%
Jason Stewart run for 3 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
100.0%
Jason Stewart run for no gain to the Memph 4Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+1
100.0%
Jason Stewart run for 1 yd to the Memph 5Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
100.0%
Spencer Smith punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Scott Miller at the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:26
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 21 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q1 4:38
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q1 1:48
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sam Craft for 43 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com