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BALL

Ball State 31 at Florida Atlantic 27

FAU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-2FAU 46.5%Morgan Hagee 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 21 · Q2 5:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:48 · Morgan Hagee 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior−8.8Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:44: Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 31 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +10.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:29: Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK) — FAU win probability +8.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:46: Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 29 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +22.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:18: Greg Joseph 41 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +11.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:47: Riley Neal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +48.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26BALL 4th & 6 at FAU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:06FAU 4th & 2 at BALL 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:48BALL 4th & 2 at FAU 22, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%−0.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−6.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:23FAU 4th & 1 at BALL 1, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.5%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−7.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:23FAU 4th & 19 at FAU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−4.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:17BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:52FAU 4th & 15 at FAU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:02BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:48FAU 4th & 6 at BALL 40, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    72.0%−1.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 2 at BALL 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.8%−5.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−2.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:18FAU 4th & 6 at BALL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−18.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:18BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:48FAU 4th & 1 at BALL 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−6.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−11.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:26FAU 4th & 15 at FAU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.9%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:26FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:44FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:49BALL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:29BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:29FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:46BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:47BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
35.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Gregory Howell Jr. for 7 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
35.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
35.6%
Jason Driskel run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
35.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+8
35.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 8 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
35.6%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+16
35.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 37 yds , Aaron Hepp returns for 16 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2INT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
36.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
36.3%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-5
36.3%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+9
36.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 9 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
36.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-8
36.3%
Riley Neal sacked by Shalom Ogbonda for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+5
36.5%
Riley Neal pass intercepted Andrew Soroh return for 5 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0338% → 42%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+46
37.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 46 yds to the BalSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
38.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
38.6%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+15
38.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tyler Cameron for 15 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
38.6%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 5Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.1%
Jason Driskel run for 5 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.3%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
41.0%
Riley Neal run for 18 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
40.6%
KeVonn Mabon run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
40.5%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
40.5%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
40.6%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
41.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Raekwon WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:2243% → 54%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
43.3%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
43.2%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 7 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+16
43.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Gregory Howell Jr. for 16 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
44.2%
Jason Driskel sacked by Jeremiah Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+6
43.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for 6 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+5
43.8%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+8
43.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 8 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
44.2%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+2
44.1%
Jason Driskel run for 2 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+31
54.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 31 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5549% → 56%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
51.4%
Darian Green run for 16 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
51.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 11 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
50.5%
KeVonn Mabon run for 22 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
50.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
44.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 26 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
47.2%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
47.0%
Jason Driskel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+17
46.4%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 17 yds Harrison Bryant fumbled, forced by Martez Hester, recovered by BalSt Marc WaltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:1754% → 61%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
45.6%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+13
45.6%
Riley Neal run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
44.8%
Corey Lacanaria pass complete to Riley Neal for 10 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
44.6%
Darian Green run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
44.6%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
44.6%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.2%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0044% → 53%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
43.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to John Raine for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
50
+47
45.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 47 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:4149% → 54%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
50.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 19 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
49.4%
Riley Neal run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
48.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Ocie RoseSimilar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
48.7%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+7
48.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 7 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
47.6%
KeVonn Mabon run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+9
47.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 9 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
48.5%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
46.5%
Morgan Hagee 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:2549% → 61%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
49.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
50.5%
Jason Driskel run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+21
51.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 21 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
52.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 16 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
52.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 4 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
52.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Kerrith Whyte Jr.Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+8
51.0%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 8 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
52.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 5:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.0%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
60.6%
Greg Joseph 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 1:2341% → 43%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+14
59.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 14 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
56.8%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+15
55.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 15 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
53.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 9 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+10
55.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 10 yds to the FlAtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
55.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
55.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 3 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+29
56.7%
Morgan Hagee 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.4%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
57.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 3 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
57.6%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
57.4%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
56.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
56.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
58.1%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 42 yds, downed at the FlAtl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+25
61.1%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 25 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Gregory Howell Jr.Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-2
62.5%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 12
OWN 0
0
60.1%
PENALTY BALL offside off-setting, PENALTY FAU illegal touching off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 12
OWN 36
-7
60.5%
Jason Driskel sacked by Kevin Thurmon and Joshua Posley for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 19
OWN 29
+7
58.6%
Dalton Schomp punt for 50 yds , Corey Lacanaria returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
61.6%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
61.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
63.1%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
64.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0067% → 64%
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
66.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for 7 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
68.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
50
0
69.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Henry Bussey III, broken up by Marc WaltonSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
50
-5
68.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Henry Bussey III for a loss of 5 yards to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
65.9%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Gregory Howell Jr.Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
64.2%
Dalton Schomp punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
64.6%
Darian Green run for 21 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
63.4%
Darian Green run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
62.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 5 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
61.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey LacanariaSimilar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
64.3%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
72.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 16 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
73.1%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Gregory Howell Jr.Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+6
72.9%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 6 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-2
72.1%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
70.3%
Dalton Schomp punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2133% → 59%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
67.0%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+17
64.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 17 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
60.5%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HAZELTON JR.,D., PENALTY BALL illegal shift off-setting, PENALTY FAU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
63.9%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
63.3%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
63.0%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HAZELTON JR.,D., PENALTY FAU pass interference (WILLIAMS, Raekw) 15 yards to the FAU29, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
41.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 29 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4652% → 54%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
52.0%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
52.8%
Jason Driskel run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
55.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 5 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
56.4%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
55.7%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
53.9%
Dalton Schomp punt for 25 yds, downed at the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.1%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
47.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
47.5%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
46.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
48.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan HogueSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+17
50.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 59 yds , Henry Bussey III returns for 17 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4253% → 69%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.8%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Henry Bussey IIISimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
52.5%
Jason Driskel run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.0%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Tavaris Harrison, broken up by Aaron TaylorSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
54.5%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+7
53.5%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Nate Terry for 7 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
57.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kalib Woods for 24 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
59.6%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 3 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-2
59.6%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+3
57.6%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Kamrin Solomon for 3 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
68.9%
Greg Joseph 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 33%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
63.4%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the BalSt 18Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
63.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Darian GreenSimilar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+3
66.0%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+34
67.0%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 34 yds , Jake Stoshak returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 44 Jake Stoshak fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Jake StoshakSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
71.9%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 17 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
73.2%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
74.3%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
72.5%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
70.4%
Gregory Howell Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4635% → 92%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
65.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 22 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
59.2%
Darian Green run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
59.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 5 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
56.5%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
56.5%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
56.5%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+8
58.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
56.5%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+10
56.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 10 yds to the FlAtl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.5%
Riley Neal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26INT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:2127% → 20%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
27.3%
Jason Driskel pass complete to Devin Singletary for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
25.7%
Jason Driskel pass incomplete to Henry Bussey IIISimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-4
23.8%
Jason Driskel sacked by Joshua Posley for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+2
20.0%
Jason Driskel pass intercepted Zack Ryan return for 2 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
7.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 13
OPP 44
-2
7.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Riley Neal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-48
TD · Q3 1:46
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 29 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
-22
FG · Q4 9:18
Greg Joseph 41 yd FG GOOD
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com