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WMU

Western Michigan 34 at Illinois 10

ILL
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.1ILL 12.1%Butch Hampton 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 10 · Q3 3:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:19 · Butch Hampton 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−29.3Score differential−13.7Garbage-time factor−7.8Pregame prior−1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:15: Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +3.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:23: Jamauri Bogan run for 36 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +4.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:39: Wes Lunt pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 56 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +7.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 1:14: Butch Hampton 32 yd FG GOOD — WMU win probability +4.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:37: Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:34WMU 4th & 17 at WMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35ILL 4th & 8 at WMU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:28WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:59ILL 4th & 1 at WMU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:07ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:25ILL 4th & 6 at WMU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:23WMU 4th & 7 at ILL 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:14WMU 4th & 8 at ILL 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−6.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:15ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:36ILL 4th & 2 at WMU 3, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.1%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−7.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:43WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−3.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:11ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:19WMU 4th & 4 at ILL 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−10.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:55ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:48WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 42, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:51ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 25, down 17
    Close callPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:11WMU 4th & 2 at midfield, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:09ILL 4th & 20 at ILL 3, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00WMU 4th & 16 at ILL 31, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 3:15WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:23WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56WMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:39ILL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:37WMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:0056% → 56%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
50
-5
44.0%
Zach Terrell sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 15
OWN 45
-2
44.2%
Zach Terrell sacked by Jamal Milan for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
44.3%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 17
OWN 43
+4
44.4%
James Coleman punt for 38 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 4 yds to the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:2245% → 46%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
44.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 19 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
44.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 6 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
45.1%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+10
45.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 10 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
45.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 4 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-2
46.0%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
45.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
45.5%
David Reisner punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0455% → 54%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.4%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
45.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 11 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
45.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 33Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
45.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q1 7:44
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-4
45.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+1
46.1%
James Coleman punt for 43 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:1746% → 48%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
45.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Nathan Echard for 17 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
46.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+11
46.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 11 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
47.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
47.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 5 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-2
47.5%
Tre Nation run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:2654% → 59%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
46.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
45.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 10 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+44
45.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 44 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
45.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:3543% → 42%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
42.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 19 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
42.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Dionte Taylor for 5 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+2
43.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 2 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
43.3%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 3
OWN 41
-5
42.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
42.1%
David Reisner punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:3158% → 64%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+30
41.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 30 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
40.4%
Terrell, Zach pass incomplete, PENALTY ILLINOIS roughing passer (James, Chris) 15 yards to the ILLINOIS36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
36.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 36 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:1037% → 37%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
37.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 19Similar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+18
37.0%
Wes Lunt sacked by Eric Assuoa for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 5 Wes Lunt fumbled, recovered by WMich , return for 18 yds to the Illin 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0465% → 64%
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
35.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.4%
Zach Terrell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1934% → 34%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
34.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 13 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
35.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-9
35.1%
Wes Lunt sacked by Keion Adams for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+10
33.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 10 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
33.9%
David Reisner punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 4:0065% → 70%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
35.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
32.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the WMich 46Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+13
32.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 13 yds to the Illin 40 Jamauri Bogan fumbled, recovered by WMich Donnie Ernsberger for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
30.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
30.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
29.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-6
29.0%
Zach Terrell sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 15
OPP 34
-10
29.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 25
OPP 44
+18
29.2%
Zach Terrell run for 18 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
30.3%
Butch Hampton 43 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 1:1627% → 33%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
26.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+15
26.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 15 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
33.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 56 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:0668% → 80%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
31.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
31.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 10 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
31.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 19 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
29.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 16 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
28.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 38Similar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 15
OPP 38
-2
28.7%
Zach Terrell sacked by Rob Bain for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+11
28.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 11 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+12
28.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 12 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
24.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
24.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
24.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
19.9%
Butch Hampton 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:4125% → 23%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
24.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 7 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+6
25.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 6 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
25.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
24.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 1 yd to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
23.1%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
22.7%
David Reisner punt for 61 yds , Darius Phillips returns for no gain to the WMich 37 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Carrington Thompson) to the WMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:1079% → 79%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
21.4%
Zach Terrell run for 1 yd to the WMich 2Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
20.9%
Zach Terrell run for no gain to the WMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:0322% → 24%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
22.4%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
21.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 12 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
23.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
22.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 10 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
22.6%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Nathan Echard for 5 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+25
22.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 25 yds to the WMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
22.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 5 yds to the WMich 6Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
21.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Austin Roberts for 3 yds to the WMich 3Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
21.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+22
24.4%
Chase McLaughlin 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:1581% → 81%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
18.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 40 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WMich 30Similar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 16
OWN 30
-1
19.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 29Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+5
19.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-1
19.1%
Zach Terrell sacked by Chris James for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 33Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
19.0%
James Coleman punt for 44 yds , Darius Mosely returns for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2620% → 18%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
19.6%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
19.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 6 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-8
19.1%
Wes Lunt sacked by Asantay Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 6:11
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
18.2%
David Reisner punt for 45 yds, downed at the WMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:4384% → 88%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
16.2%
Zach Terrell run for 11 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
14.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 6 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+40
14.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 40 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
13.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
13.2%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the Illin 4Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
13.2%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
12.1%
Butch Hampton 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5814% → 13%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
14.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 12 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
14.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-2
14.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-1
13.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
12.8%
David Reisner punt for 43 yds, downed at the WMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 3:0691% → 92%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
9.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 11 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
8.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
8.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the WMich 36Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+6
8.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 6 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
7.9%
James Coleman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Darius Mosely at the Illin 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:518% → 7%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
8.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
7.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 7 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
7.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
7.3%
David Reisner punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:4394% → 99%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
6.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 35 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
5.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 9 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+6
5.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
5.2%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+5
5.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24INT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:042% → 2%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
1.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 15 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
1.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 21 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
1.5%
Wes Lunt pass intercepted Robert Spillane return for 23 yds to the WMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.9%
Zach Terrell run for 4 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
0.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
0.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 2
50
+1
0.7%
James Coleman punt for 38 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 1 yd to the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
0.9%
Wes Lunt sacked by Eric Assuoa for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 17
OWN 6
-3
0.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the Illin 3Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 20
OWN 3
0
0.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 20
OWN 3
0
0.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Kendrick FosterSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 20
OWN 3
0
0.8%
David Reisner punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 4:43100% → 100%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
0.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
0.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+10
0.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 10 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
0.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-2
0.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 29Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+5
0.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 9
OPP 24
-10
0.3%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 31
+7
0.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 7 yds to the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:39
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 56 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+7
TD · Q1 0:23
Jamauri Bogan run for 36 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)
-4.5
FG · Q2 1:14
Butch Hampton 32 yd FG GOOD
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com