Try the model
EKU

Eastern Kentucky 14 at Ball State 41

BALL
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreEKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:56 · Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, downed at the EKent 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 112Home team on offense+26.2Pregame prior+18.1Score differential+21.3Blowout margin+8.4Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:12: Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +0.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:38: Riley Neal run for 12 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +3.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 13:04: Morgan Hagee 32 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +2.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:55: Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +3.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:07: Morgan Hagee 41 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 8EKU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00EKU 4th & 4 at BALL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08EKU 4th & 13 at EKU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:04BALL 4th & 4 at EKU 15, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−3.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:55EKU 4th & 19 at EKU 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:20BALL 4th & 3 at EKU 33, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:34EKU 4th & 16 at EKU 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:56BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 6, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:23EKU 4th & 8 at EKU 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07BALL 4th & 14 at EKU 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:56BALL 4th & 6 at EKU 39, up 27
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:05EKU 4th & 7 at EKU 15, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:26BALL 4th & 2 at EKU 11, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:11EKU 4th & 7 at EKU 48, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:31BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 22, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00EKU 4th & 16 at EKU 32, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:54BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 36, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:46EKU 4th & 15 at BALL 43, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5EKU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 8:12BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:38BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:55BALL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:17BALL Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:49BALL Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:29EKU Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:26EKU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EKUDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
83.5%
Maty Mauk run for no gain to the EKent 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-6
83.5%
Maty Mauk sacked by Aaron Taylor and Kevin Willis for a loss of 6 yards to the EKent 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+37
83.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ryan Markush for 37 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
83.5%
Maty Mauk sacked by Aaron Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the EKent 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+12
83.5%
James Smith Jr. run for 12 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+9
83.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Devin Borders for 9 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
83.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Devin Borders, broken up by Reggie McGeeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
83.5%
Maty Mauk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+6
83.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ethan Thomas for 6 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
83.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ryan MarkushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3583% → 83%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
82.6%
Darian Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+9
82.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 9 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
82.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 4 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
82.7%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+11
82.8%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the EKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
82.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 16 yds to the EKent 30 for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Garcia) to the EKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
82.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 11 yds to the EKent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.9%
James Gilbert run for no gain to the EKent 4Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
82.9%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the EKent 3Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 3 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
82.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to James Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the EKent 34Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
82.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ryan Markush for 7 yds to the EKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
82.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to James Smith Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the EKent 38Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 13
OWN 38
-6
82.9%
Maty Mauk sacked by John Whitman III and Joshua Posley for a loss of 6 yards to the EKent 32Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+6
83.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to James Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the EKent 38Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+11
83.2%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 19 , Aaron Hepp returns for 11 yds to the BalSt 49 BALL ST Penalty, illegal block (Marc Walton) to the BalSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 5:2283% → 87%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
82.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Malik Dunner for 7 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-5
83.0%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Drake Miller) to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+1
82.8%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+2
82.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 2 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 5
OWN 0
+5
82.4%
SCHMIDT, Kyle punt 40 yards to the EKU36, fair catch by NORTHINGTON, K., PENALTY EKU roughing the kicker (REED, Eric) 5 yards to the BALL29, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY, PENALTY EKU personal foul declined.Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
82.9%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
83.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 1 yd to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+6
82.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 6 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST down EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.2%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
83.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for no gain to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+31
83.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 31 yds to the EKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
83.4%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to MABON, KeVonn, PENALTY EKU personal foul (GRAFFREE, P.) 13 yards to the EKU12, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
86.5%
Riley Neal run for 12 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 5INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3315% → 15%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
85.0%
Bennie Coney pass complete to James Smith Jr. for 1 yd to the EKent 28Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-4
85.1%
Bennie Coney run for a loss of 4 yards to the EKent 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+19
85.4%
Bennie Coney pass intercepted Marc Walton return for 19 yds to the EKent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4786% → 89%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
86.0%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HAZELTON JR.,D., PENALTY BALL illegal block off-setting, PENALTY EKU pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
86.6%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 23Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+6
86.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the EKent 17Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+2
86.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 2 yds to the EKent 15Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
88.6%
Morgan Hagee 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
88.1%
Bennie Coney pass incomplete to James Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
88.1%
Henry Enyenihi run for no gain to the EKent 10Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+10
88.2%
Bennie Coney pass intercepted Martez Hester return for 10 yds to the EKent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3690% → 93%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
89.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Sam Brunner for 1 yd to the EKent 19Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+9
89.5%
Teddy Williamson run for 9 yds to the EKent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
89.5%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the EKent 8Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
89.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 3 yds to the EKent 5Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
92.1%
Jared Sanders run for a loss of 6 yards to the EKent 19Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+1
92.2%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ryan Markush for 1 yd to the EKent 20Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-4
92.2%
Maty Mauk sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 4 yards to the EKent 16Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
92.2%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
93.6%
Darian Green run for 6 yds to the EKent 34Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
93.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 5 yds Devin Reece fumbled, forced by Kobie Grace, recovered by BalSt Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+1
93.1%
Riley Neal run for 1 yd to the EKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
92.6%
Ethan Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 30Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+13
92.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ryan Markush for 13 yds to the EKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
92.5%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Devin Borders for 4 yds to the EKent 47Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
92.4%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ryan Markush, broken up by Josh MillerSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-10
92.6%
MAUK, Maty pass complete to BORDERS, Devin for 15 yards to the BALL38 (McNULTY, Armani), PENALTY EKU holding (EDWARDS, Chance) 10 yards to the EKU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
92.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to James Smith Jr., broken up by Corey HallSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
93.0%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 54 yds, downed at the BalSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
94.1%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
94.1%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Nigel BethelSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 11
-5
93.9%
Riley Neal sacked by LaJuan Smith and Aaron Patrick for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 6Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 13
OWN 6
+5
93.6%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 63 yds , Kiante Northington returns for 5 yds to the EKent 11 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (Cornelius Floyd) to the EKent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
93.7%
Maty Mauk run for 12 yds to the EKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
93.4%
Henry Enyenihi run for 2 yds to the EKent 40Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
93.3%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete, broken up by Sean Hammonds Jr.Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
93.5%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ryan MarkushSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+16
93.7%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BALLST 29 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, kick catching interference (Dan Crimmins) to the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FG
15 plays · 32 yds · 3:2095% → 99%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
95.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 8 yds to the EKent 48Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
95.2%
Darian Green run for 2 yds to the EKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
95.2%
Riley Neal run for 6 yds to the EKent 40Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
95.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn Mabon, broken up by Kiante NorthingtonSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+5
95.1%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense (Avery Pitt) to the EKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
95.2%
KeVonn Mabon run for 2 yds to the EKent 33Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+13
95.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 13 yds to the EKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
95.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to KeVonn Mabon for 6 yds to the EKent 14Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
95.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to KeVonn MabonSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-10
95.9%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to MABON, KeVonn for 8 yards to the EKU6 (SOLOMON, Buck;BETHEL, Nigel), PENALTY BALL holding (JOSS, Alex) 10 yards to the EKU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 14
OPP 24
0
96.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Sam BrunnerSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+41
98.7%
Morgan Hagee 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
98.6%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Aaron Patrick) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
98.8%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+3
98.7%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
98.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 4 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+9
98.8%
James Gilbert run for 9 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
98.9%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+17
98.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 17 yds to the EKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
98.9%
Darian Green run for 4 yds to the EKent 39Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
98.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Jordan Hogue, broken up by Ben BascomSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
98.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 38 yds, downed at the EKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
99.1%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, ( Yards) to the EKent 1Similar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.1%
Ethan Thomas run for 3 yds to the EKent 4Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
99.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jon FloydSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+8
99.1%
Ethan Thomas run for 8 yds to the EKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Ryan MarkushSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
99.1%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Alex CabreraSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.1%
Ethan Thomas run for 3 yds to the EKent 15Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
99.1%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:0999% → 100%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.3%
James Gilbert run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
99.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 5 yds to the EKent 48Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+6
99.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Darian Green for 6 yds to the EKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.3%
Riley Neal run for 11 yds to the EKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.3%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the EKent 25Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
99.3%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the EKent 22Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
99.2%
Riley Neal run for 3 yds to the EKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
99.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 5 yds to the EKent 14Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
99.3%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the EKent 12Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+1
99.2%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the EKent 11Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+5
99.1%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the EKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.3%
James Gilbert run for 5 yds to the EKent 1Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.6%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 10 yds to the EKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.6%
Henry Enyenihi run for 5 yds to the EKent 35Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+10
99.6%
MAUK, Maty pass incomplete to CRIMMINS, Dan, PENALTY BALL holding (MILLER, Josh) 10 yards to the EKU45, 1ST DOWN EKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.6%
Henry Enyenihi run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 5
50
-2
99.6%
Henry Enyenihi run for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 48Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
99.6%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Jared SandersSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
99.6%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
99.7%
Malik Dunner run for 4 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+1
99.7%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd to the BalSt 10Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+12
99.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Hogue for 12 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Devin ReeceSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
99.8%
MAUK, Maty rush for 9 yards to the EKU47, PENALTY EKU holding (ADEKOYA, Justin) 10 yards to the EKU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+2
99.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Neiko Creamer for 2 yds to the EKent 30Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 18
OWN 30
-6
99.8%
Maty Mauk sacked by Anthony Winbush for a loss of 6 yards to the EKent 24Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 24
OWN 24
+8
99.8%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Jared Sanders for 8 yds to the EKent 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Aaron Hepp at the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.8%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
James Gilbert run for 4 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-1
99.8%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Kyle Schmidt punt for 48 yds, downed at the EKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Dan Crimmins, broken up by Tyree HolderSimilar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+46
99.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Ryan Markush for 46 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
99.8%
Ethan Thomas run for 1 yd to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-1
99.8%
Ethan Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.8%
Maty Mauk sacked by Brian Whitaker and Damon Singleton for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 15
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 39 yds, downed at the BalSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 4:54100% → 100%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
99.9%
Malik Dunner run for 5 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+7
99.9%
Riley Neal run for 7 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton Jr.Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.9%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+12
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 12 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Teddy Williamson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+42
99.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Devin Reece for 42 yds to the EKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
99.9%
Teddy Williamson run for 10 yds to the EKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Teddy Williamson run for 3 yds to the EKent 17Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
99.9%
Teddy Williamson run for 4 yds to the EKent 13Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+12
99.9%
Teddy Williamson run for 12 yds to the EKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Teddy Williamson run for no gain to the EKent 1Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Teddy Williamson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
99.9%
Maty Mauk sacked by John Swisher and Chris Crumb for a loss of 3 yards to the EKent 20Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+10
99.9%
Maty Mauk run for 10 yds to the EKent 30Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+32
99.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Neiko Creamer for 32 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
99.9%
Maty Mauk sacked by Jeremiah Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 16
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Maty Mauk pass incomplete to Alex Cabrera, broken up by Josh MillerSimilar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+16
99.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 16 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Devin Borders for 28 yds for a TD, (Lucas Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Malik Dunner run for 4 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Malik Dunner run for 7 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the BalSt 40 Malik Dunner fumbled, forced by Luder Jean Louis, recovered by EKent Luder Jean LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 27TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:320% → 0%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+32
100.0%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Devin Borders for 32 yds to the BalSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 8
OPP 0
-15
99.9%
MAUK, Maty pass incomplete to SMITH, James, PENALTY EKU personal foul (STEPHENSON, Z) 15 yards to the BALL23, NO PLAY, PENALTY EKU illegal forward pass declined.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 23
-5
99.9%
MAUK, Maty rush for no gain to the BALL23, out-of-bounds, PENALTY EKU illegal formation 5 yards to the BALL28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 28
+27
99.9%
Maty Mauk pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 27 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Daryl McCleskey Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Lucas Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:55
Riley Neal pass complete to Damon Hazelton Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q1 0:38
Riley Neal run for 12 yds for a TD, (Morgan Hagee KICK)
+3.1
FG · Q2 0:07
Morgan Hagee 41 yd FG GOOD
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com