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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:04 · TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 6:32: Louie Zervos 26 Yd Field Goal — OHIO win probability +10.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:17: LaQuvionte Gonzalez 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Matthew Wyman Kick) — KU win probability +10.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:40: Steven Sims Jr. 74 Yd pass from Montell Cozart (Matthew Wyman Kick) — KU win probability +7.6 pts (now 22%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:59: Steven Sims Jr. 22 Yd pass from Montell Cozart (Matthew Wyman Kick) — KU win probability +10.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:02: Louie Zervos 46 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +7.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 12:16KU 4th & 6 at OHIO 49, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snapGo for it29.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%average punt
- Q1 11:16OHIO 4th & 2 at KU 43, up 6Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snapGo for it70.1%57% to convertField goal69.9%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call70.0%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:44KU 4th & 9 at KU 37, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it25.9%−0.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.4%average punt
- Q2 14:40KU 4th & 3 at OHIO 36, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.1%53% to convertField goal19.6%−1.542% to makePunt19.2%−2.0average punt
- Q2 6:32OHIO 4th & 5 at KU 9, up 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snapGo for it86.0%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call86.0%89% to makePunt80.8%−5.2average punt
- Q2 6:13OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 32, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it82.1%−1.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q2 2:52OHIO 4th & 5 at KU 5, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snapGo for it84.2%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call84.3%92% to makePunt79.8%−4.6average punt
- Q2 2:02KU 4th & 5 at KU 35, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%average punt
- Q2 0:11OHIO 4th & 6 at KU 41, up 21Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snapGo for it90.7%−0.240% to convertField goal90.8%32% to makePuntTheir call90.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 14:32OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snapGo for it80.3%−0.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.9%average punt
- Q3 12:52OHIO 4th & 8 at KU 8, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snapGo for it80.6%−0.726% to convertField goalTheir call81.3%90% to makePunt74.8%−6.5average punt
- Q3 10:53OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 43, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snapGo for it75.5%−0.837% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q3 7:38KU 4th & 4 at KU 30, down 10Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it23.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 7:27OHIO 4th & 3 at KU 30, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.7%52% to convertField goal75.6%−1.056% to makePunt74.2%−2.4average punt
- Q4 13:34KU 4th & 3 at KU 44, down 13Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it16.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:24OHIO 4th & 5 at KU 5, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snapGo for it95.8%33% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%−0.192% to makePunt92.1%−3.7average punt
- Q4 2:19KU 4th & 12 at KU 39, down 16Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%−<0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.9%average punt
- Q4 0:04OHIO 4th & 20 at OHIO 25, up 16Close callWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.6%−0.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:23OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call70.3%97% to makeGo for two70.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:50OHIO Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.3%97% to makeGo for two74.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:48OHIO Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.3%97% to makeGo for two81.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:17KU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.9%97% to makeGo for two15.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:40KU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.5%97% to makeGo for two19.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:59KU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.9%97% to makeGo for two23.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3763% → 63%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
36.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for no gain to the Ohio 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
37.5%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez, broken up by Kurt LaseakSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
37.5%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for no gain to the Kans 47Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+4
37.3%
Montell Cozart run for 4 yds to the KANSAS 49 KANSAS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
37.4%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 4 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+15
37.4%
WINDHAM, Greg pass incomplete to WHITE, Papi, PENALTY KU personal foul (Ogletree, M.) 15 yards to the OHIO39, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
37.1%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Tevin ShawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4SF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4138% → 36%
OHIODrive 5TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3264% → 69%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
36.1%
Maleek Irons run for 3 yds to the Ohio 28 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ohio 18Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+14
36.2%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kyle Belack for 14 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
35.9%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kyle Belack for 21 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
35.6%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jordan Reid, broken up by Fish SmithsonSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
35.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Dorian Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 22Similar
Q1 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
35.6%
Greg Windham run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kans 4 OHIO Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 3:44
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+54
31.7%
Cole Moos punt for 46 yds, downed at the KANSAS 17 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Reid) to the Ohio 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD8 plays · 91 yds · 3:1069% → 78%
Q1 2:58
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+15
30.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kyle Belack for 15 yds to the Kans 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8DOWNS8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
24.7%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 2 yds to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+17
24.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 3 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST down OHIO Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+5
24.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 5 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9FG11 plays · 56 yds · 5:0680% → 91%
Q2 11:38
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+14
20.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jarid Brown for 14 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+15
20.1%
WINDHAM, Greg pass incomplete, QB hurry by Dineen, Joe, PENALTY KU personal foul (Smithson, Fish) 15 yards to the KU37, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
19.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Brendan Cope for no gain to the Kans 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 6:13
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+7
19.7%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 7 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-5
19.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Maleek Irons for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 32Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
20.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 43 yds , LaQuvionte Gonzalez returns for no gain to the Kans 24 LaQuvionte Gonzalez fumbled, recovered by Ohio Toran DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12FG6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2483% → 83%
KUDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5017% → 18%
OHIODrive 14PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4484% → 88%
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
15.0%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jarid Brown, broken up by Tevin ShawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16TD3 plays · 74 yds · 0:1515% → 22%
OHIODrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
21.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to Troy Mangen for 5 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q3 14:32
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
22.5%
Michael Farkas punt for 46 yds , LaQuvionte Gonzalez returns for no gain to the Kans 10 LaQuvionte Gonzalez fumbled, recovered by Ohio Quinton MaxwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4881% → 83%
Q3 13:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
19.7%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jordan Reid, broken up by Tevin ShawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19TD6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4818% → 31%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
18.1%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ben Johnson for 16 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+10
19.3%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 10 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
19.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to LaQuvionte Gonzalez for 27 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
30.5%
Steven Sims Jr. 22 Yd pass from Montell Cozart (Matthew Wyman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
KUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4126% → 24%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
25.8%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 12 yds to the Kans 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
26.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for no gain to the Kans 24Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
25.9%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Steven Sims Jr. for 6 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
24.3%
Montell Cozart pass incomplete to Tyler Patrick, broken up by Cleon AloeseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22INT9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
23.3%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 22 yds to the Kans 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 12
OPP 0
0
22.8%
WINDHAM, Greg pass incomplete to QUALLEN, Corey, PENALTY KU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY OHIO ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
23.4%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Troy Mangen, broken up by Fish SmithsonSimilar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+22
24.9%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 22 yds to the Kans 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
23.6%
Greg Windham pass intercepted, touchback. Fish Smithson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23FG11 plays · 0 yds · 3:4822% → 13%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
21.6%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Keegan Brewer for 5 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
22.2%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Tyler Patrick for 6 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+5
21.0%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 5 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 4
OWN 0
+15
19.5%
Moos, Cole punt -8 yards to the KU29, POLING, Quentin return to the KU29 (Wise, Daniel), PENALTY KU face mask (Arnick, C.) 23 yards to the KU14, 1st and 10, OHIO ball on KU14, PENALTY OHIO unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the KU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-1
19.0%
Greg Windham pass complete to Dorian Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:2616% → 16%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
16.0%
Cozart, Montell pass intercepted by STITES, Randy at the OHIO35, STITES, Randy return to the KU39 (Ribordy, Mesa), PENALTY OHIO personal foul (BROWN, Blair) 15 yards to the KU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
15.5%
Cole Moos punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25FG20 plays · 81 yds · 10:0390% → 98%
KUDrive 26INT8 plays · 14 yds · 1:003% → 1%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Ke'aun Kinner for 8 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-6
2.6%
Ryan Willis sacked by Tarell Basham for a loss of 6 yards to the Kans 39Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
1.2%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Mayne Williams return for no gain to the Ohio 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 27DOWNS5 plays · -15 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:17
LaQuvionte Gonzalez 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Matthew Wyman Kick)
+10.6
TD · Q3 10:59
Steven Sims Jr. 22 Yd pass from Montell Cozart (Matthew Wyman Kick)
+10.6
FG · Q2 6:32
Louie Zervos 26 Yd Field Goal
-10.2