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NCCU

North Carolina Central 21 at Western Michigan 70

WMU
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadNCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreNCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:01 · Nathaniel Tilque punt for 42 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 29 yds to the NCCtl 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 125Home team on offense+28.6Pregame prior+12.1Score differential+25.5Blowout margin+12.4Garbage-time factor+7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:28: Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 46 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:23: Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 71 yds for a TD, (Brandon McLaren KICK) — NCCU win probability +5.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NCCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:09: LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +4.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:05: Malcolm Bell pass complete to David Miller for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon McLaren KICK) — NCCU win probability +8.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NCCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:01: Zach Terrell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK) — WMU win probability +4.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NCCU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00NCCU 4th & 15 at NCCU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:25NCCU 4th & 5 at NCCU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:00NCCU 4th & 5 at WMU 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:53WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:27NCCU 4th & 8 at NCCU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NCCU 4th & 4 at NCCU 49, down 21
    Close callPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:28NCCU 4th & 15 at NCCU 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:19WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:01NCCU 4th & 15 at NCCU 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:36NCCU 4th & 13 at NCCU 46, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:10NCCU 4th & 11 at NCCU 17, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:51WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 44, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:37NCCU 4th & 9 at NCCU 8, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:26WMU 4th & 1 at NCCU 1, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:26NCCU 4th & 7 at NCCU 44, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9NCCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:25WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:00WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:06NCCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:54WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:28WMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:23NCCU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:09WMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:05NCCU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 10:01WMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:39WMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:10WMU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:26WMU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCCUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Malcolm Bell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.8%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
77.8%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Jalen Wilkes for 5 yds to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.8%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
77.8%
Malcolm Bell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+2
77.8%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 34 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 2 yds to the WMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD
1 play · 52 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
77.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 52 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Dorrel McClain run for no gain to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Jalen WilkesSimilar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.8%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to David Miller for 5 yds to the NCCtl 30Similar
Q1 14:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
77.8%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:1578% → 80%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
77.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+21
77.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 21 yds to the NCCtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
78.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 30Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+4
78.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
78.0%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 9 yds to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
78.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+8
77.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
78.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 7Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
78.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 5Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.3%
Dorrel McClain run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 33Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+17
79.1%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
79.0%
Dorrel McClain run for 3 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
79.0%
Malcolm Bell run for 2 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
79.1%
Malcolm Bell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
79.3%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
80.6%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington ThompsonSimilar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
80.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 14Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-4
80.4%
Zach Terrell sacked by Antonio Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 10Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+25
80.2%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 41 , LaVontis Smith returns for 25 yds to the WMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 1:0120% → 23%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
80.0%
Torri Cotton run for 3 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+34
79.9%
Torri Cotton run for 34 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.6%
Malcolm Bell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon McLaren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1279% → 82%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
78.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 4 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
78.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
78.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 21 yds to the NCCtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
78.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
81.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 26 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 9PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2719% → 13%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.6%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Quentin Atkinson for 4 yds to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
80.4%
Torri Cotton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 27Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
81.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to David MillerSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+66
87.4%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 39 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 66 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:2713% → 13%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Torri Cotton for no gain to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.7%
BELL,Malcolm sacked for loss of 8 yards to the NCCU17 (SPILLANE, R), PENALTY WMU face mask (ASSUOA, Eric) 7 yards to the NCCU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
87.3%
Torri Cotton run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
87.3%
Dorrel McClain run for no gain to the NCCtl 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
87.4%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Jalen Wilkes for 6 yds to the NCCtl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
87.3%
Ramone Simpson run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
87.1%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Ramone Simpson for 2 yds to the NCCtl 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
87.1%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to LaVontis SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+46
87.4%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WESTMICH 10 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal block (Sam Beal) to the WMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 2:5990% → 95%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
89.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the WMich 5Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
89.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+19
89.5%
Jarvion Franklin run for 19 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
90.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+8
90.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 8 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
90.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 18 yds to the NCCtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
94.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 46 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.0%
Dorrel McClain run for no gain to the NCCtl 30Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
95.2%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Dorrel McClainSimilar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to David MillerSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+16
95.3%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 46 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 16 yds to the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
95.0%
Zach Terrell run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 43Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
94.9%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Carrington Thompson WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
94.6%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCCtl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 2:433% → 8%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
96.9%
Dorrel McClain run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 6Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+3
97.0%
Dorrel McClain run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 9Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+8
97.2%
Malcolm Bell run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+20
96.8%
Ramone Simpson run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 22 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (15 Yards) to the NCCtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
97.0%
Ramone Simpson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+71
91.8%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 71 yds for a TD, (Brandon McLaren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1494% → 98%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
93.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 27 yds to the NCCtl 44 Jamauri Bogan fumbled, forced by Josiah Dailey, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
93.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 10 yds to the NCCtl 34 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NCCtl 49Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
93.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 4 yds to the NCCtl 45Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
93.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
93.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
93.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 9 yds to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+7
93.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
93.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 19 yds to the NCCtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:042% → 10%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
98.1%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Jalen Wilkes for 34 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
97.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 9 yds to the WMich 32 NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul (-16 Yards) to the WMich 48Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 17
OPP 48
-5
98.1%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 47Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 22
OWN 47
+19
98.5%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 19 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+15
98.0%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Jalen Wilkes for 15 yds to the WMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
98.3%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 18 yds to the WMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.6%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to David Miller for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon McLaren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 4:5995% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
94.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+26
94.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 26 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
94.9%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 9 yds to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+3
95.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.0%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
95.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+11
94.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 11 yds to the NCCtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
95.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
95.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 9 yds to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+5
94.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
95.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 10Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Zach Terrell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.1%
Dorrel McClain run for no gain to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
99.1%
Malcolm Bell sacked by Caleb Bailey for a loss of 5 yards to the NCCtl 24Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 15
OWN 24
0
99.1%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to David MillerSimilar
Q3 10:01
4TH & 15
OWN 24
+29
99.1%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 42 yds , Darius Phillips returns for 29 yds to the NCCtl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:4799% → 100%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+1
99.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+5
99.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
99.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 14 yds to the NCCtl 9 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Corey Davis) to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 12
OPP 25
+9
99.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds to the NCCtl 16Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+4
99.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 8Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-2
99.4%
Jarvion Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 10Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
99.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 10 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Ramone Simpson run for no gain to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to LaVontis SmithSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 10
OPP 0
+14
99.6%
BELL,Malcolm rush for loss of 1 yard to the NCCU34 (TURNER, Andre), PENALTY WMU offside defense off-setting, PENALTY NCCU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY, PENALTY WMU personal foul (SPILLANE, R) 14 yards to the NCCU49, 1ST DOWN NCCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
99.7%
BELL,Malcolm pass complete to SMITH,LaVontis for 51 yards to the WMU0, clock 03:27, PENALTY NCCU holding (LEVERETT,Nick) 10 yards to the NCCU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 20
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to David MillerSimilar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+7
99.7%
Ramone Simpson run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 46Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to LaVontis SmithSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 39 yds , Darius Phillips returns for no gain to the WMich 15 Darius Phillips fumbled, recovered by WMich Darius PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+18
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 18 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 5 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+21
99.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 44 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, personal foul (Josiah Dailey) to the NCCtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
99.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 18 yds to the NCCtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
99.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 6 yds to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+10
99.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 10 yds to the NCCtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 4Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 3 yds to the NCCtl 21Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+1
99.9%
Ramone Simpson run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 22Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Quentin AtkinsonSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 6
OWN 22
-5
99.9%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Tom Flacco pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-6
99.9%
Tom Flacco run for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 39Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Tom Flacco run for 5 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 49 yds, downed at the NCCtl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
99.9%
Ramone Simpson run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 10Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-2
99.9%
Ramone Simpson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 8Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 9
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Quentin Atkinson, broken up by Davontae GinwrightSimilar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 9
OWN 8
+2
99.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 40 yds , Keishawn Watson returns for 2 yds to the WMich 10 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Davon Tucker run for 4 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
99.9%
Tom Flacco run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 38Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 30Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+27
99.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 27 yds to the NCCtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Davon Tucker run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Davon Tucker run for no gain to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Davon Tucker run for no gain to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Davon Tucker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
Jacen Murphy run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 33Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
100.0%
Ramone Simpson run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 34Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
100.0%
Ramone Simpson run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
100.0%
Ramone Simpson run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 44Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
100.0%
Ramone Simpson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 46Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
100.0%
Ramone Simpson run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 49Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-5
100.0%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 44Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Malcolm Bell pass complete to David Miller for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon McLaren KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q2 4:23
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 71 yds for a TD, (Brandon McLaren KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q2 9:28
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 46 yds for a TD, (Butch Hampton KICK)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com