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NIU

Northern Illinois 17 at South Florida 48

USF
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:07 · Jacob Ambrose punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense+12.6Score differential+8.0Pregame prior+22.2Blowout margin+0.4Garbage-time factor+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:39: Rodney Adams run for 11 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +1.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:25: Ryeshene Bronson 73 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +3.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:07: Rodney Adams 26 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +4.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 5:17: E. Nadelman 34 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:36: Aregeros Turner 4 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick) — USF win probability +0.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00USF 4th & 4 at USF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:42NIU 4th & 9 at USF 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:39NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:25NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:05USF 4th & 10 at NIU 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:05NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 42, down 17
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:07NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:17USF 4th & 4 at NIU 17, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:36NIU 4th & 2 at USF 4, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:43USF 4th & 6 at USF 46, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 46, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:15USF 4th & 5 at USF 17, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:55NIU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 31
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:05NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 1, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:27NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 45, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:09USF 4th & 3 at USF 44, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:16NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 39, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:10USF 4th & 5 at USF 39, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:49NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 39, down 34
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:34NIU 4th & 5 at USF 5, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:39USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:25USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:07USF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:27USF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:31USF Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:09NIU Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
81.1%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
81.1%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
81.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Darius TiceSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+11
81.1%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 52 yds , Shawun Lurry returns for 11 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
80.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 5 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
80.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Shane Wimann for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+2
80.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
80.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Jordan Huff for 5 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
80.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 6 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
80.7%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+8
80.7%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 8 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
80.7%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 11
OPP 49
-4
80.7%
Drew Hare sacked by Auggie Sanchez for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+6
80.8%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 6 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
80.8%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:1680% → 81%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
79.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 9 yds to the SFla 29 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+3
79.7%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+45
79.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 45 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
80.2%
FLOWERS, Quint pass incomplete to BRONSON, Ryshen, PENALTY USF illegal formation 5 yards to the NIU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
80.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+2
80.0%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+13
79.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 13 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
80.2%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+13
80.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
81.4%
Rodney Adams run for 11 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
80.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
80.9%
Aregeros Turner run for 9 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
80.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
80.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
80.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+3
81.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 3 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
81.0%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 51 yds, downed at the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 1:1581% → 84%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.8%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+11
80.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 11 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
83.9%
Ryeshene Bronson 73 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
83.4%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+16
83.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 16 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
83.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
83.2%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
83.3%
Drew Hare pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+7
83.5%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 40 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 7 yds to the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:2884% → 85%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
84.2%
JOHNSON, D'Erne rush for loss of 1 yard to the USF26 (FLEMING, Ladell), PENALTY NIU face mask (FLEMING, Ladell) 15 yards to the USF42, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
84.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 12 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
84.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
84.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+33
84.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Tyre McCants for 33 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
84.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
85.1%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+1
84.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the NoIll 9Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 5
OPP 9
-5
84.7%
NADELMAN, Emili field goal attempt from 26 GOOD, clock 14:12, PENALTY USF illegal formation 5 yards to the NIU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
84.7%
Emilio Nadelman 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
86.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 8 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
85.8%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Shane WimannSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
85.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros Turner, broken up by Nate GodwinSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
86.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:0688% → 92%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
87.5%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
87.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+19
87.4%
Darius Tice run for 19 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
87.9%
Darius Tice run for 21 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
92.3%
Rodney Adams 26 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.2%
Jordan Huff run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
90.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
90.9%
Jordan Huff run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
90.9%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
90.8%
Jordan Huff run for 1 yd to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-8
90.9%
Drew Hare sacked by Kevin Bronson for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
91.3%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0294% → 97%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.5%
Darius Tice run for 5 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+17
93.5%
Rodney Adams run for 17 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
93.5%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+8
93.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 8 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
93.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
93.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+4
93.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 4 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+34
97.3%
E. Nadelman 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:413% → 3%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
Aregeros Turner run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
97.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 22 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
97.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+7
97.2%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 7 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+28
96.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 28 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
96.9%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
96.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
96.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the SFla 4Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
96.9%
Aregeros Turner 4 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:5398% → 99%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
98.3%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
98.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+10
98.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 10 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
98.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+5
98.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
98.6%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 52 yds, downed at the NoIll 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
99.0%
Drew Hare run for no gain to the NoIll 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
98.5%
Jordan Huff run for 3 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+16
98.5%
Jordan Huff run for 16 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
98.4%
Jordan Huff run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
98.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Jordan Huff for 4 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
98.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Christian BlakeSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
98.5%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tajee Fullwood at the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
99.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
99.0%
Rodney Adams run for no gain to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
99.0%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
98.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 52 yds, downed at the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
99.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 12 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 6 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
99.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-1
99.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 3
50
0
99.1%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 1:5699% → 99%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+17
99.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 17 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
99.4%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 29 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+9
99.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.4%
D'Ernest Johnson 13 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
99.4%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 12
OWN 1
0
99.4%
Jordan Huff run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 1
0
99.4%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny Golladay, broken up by Ronnie HogginsSimilar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 12
OWN 1
-2
99.4%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 38 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+19
99.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 19 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Elkanah DillonSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 9 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
99.5%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 2 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
99.5%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Chris Barr 6 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.7%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Kenny Golladay for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.6%
Ryan Graham run for 1 yd to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
99.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
99.6%
Joel Bouagnon run for 2 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.7%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-5
99.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Chris Barr) to the SFla 6Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+8
99.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 8 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+19
99.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 4 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Bobby Jones IV) to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
99.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 3 yds to the SFla 36 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyre McCants) to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 17
OWN 26
+30
99.7%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Chris Barr for 30 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
99.8%
Deangelo Antoine run for 5 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+13
99.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jawuan Johnson) to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
99.8%
Darius Tice run for 9 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+4
99.8%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Darius Tice 11 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Kenny Golladay run for 5 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Jordan Huff for 8 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
99.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Jordan Huff for 2 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
GRAHAM, Ryan pass incomplete to GOLLADAY, Kenny, PENALTY USF pass interference (SPENCER, Jalen) 15 yards to the USF45, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.8%
Jordan Huff run for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
99.8%
GRAHAM, Ryan pass incomplete (JACKSON, LaDar), PENALTY USF roughing passer (BLACK, Josh) 15 yards to the USF20, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.8%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 9 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Aregeros Turner 11 Yd pass from Ryan Graham (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cecil Cherry) to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.9%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+20
99.9%
Darius Tice run for 20 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Darius Tice run for 4 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Jordan Reed for 3 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ezra Saffold at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Christian Blake for 18 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
99.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Max Scharping) to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 6 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Clayton GlasperSimilar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 6 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
99.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 8 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Brett Kean pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 29 yds, downed at the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Jordan Huff run for 7 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Kenny GolladaySimilar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Jacob Ambrose punt for 38 yds , Hassan Childs returns for no gain to the SFla 25 Hassan Childs fumbled, recovered by NoIll Jawuan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+12
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for 12 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 6 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.9%
Ryan Graham run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Ryan Graham pass incomplete to Jordan HuffSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
99.9%
Christian Hagan 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29END OF GAME
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
100.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
50
0
100.0%
Brett Kean pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
50
+5
100.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
100.0%
Brett Kean pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 6 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
100.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 6 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 4
OPP 33
-5
100.0%
Brett Kean pass complete to Tyler Pippens for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+1
100.0%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:07
Rodney Adams 26 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+4.3
FG · Q2 5:17
E. Nadelman 34 yd FG GOOD
+3.5
TD · Q1 3:25
Ryeshene Bronson 73 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com