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ME

Maine 3 at Toledo 45

TOL
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreME score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:43 · James DeMartini punt for 43 yds , Kadar Hollman returns for no gain to the Toled 35 Kadar Hollman fumbled, recovered by Maine Jeremy Salmon
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+41.2Home team on offense+1.3Score differential+0.1Blowout margin+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:51: Patrick Leonard 29 yd FG GOOD — ME win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:33: Jameson Vest 31 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +0.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:29: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 64 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:50: Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 21 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q3 4:21: TEAM punt blocked by Cody Thompson blocked by Cody Thompson Ronnie Jones return for 27 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ME made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 7:51ME 4th & 9 at TOL 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:25ME 4th & 10 at ME 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:34TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42ME 4th & 9 at ME 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 39, up 4
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:43ME 4th & 3 at ME 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:35ME 4th & 6 at TOL 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:33TOL 4th & 3 at ME 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:33TOL 4th & 2 at ME 14, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:29ME 4th & 9 at ME 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:23ME 4th & 9 at TOL 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:00ME 4th & 17 at ME 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:21ME 4th & 14 at ME 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:17ME 4th & 9 at ME 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00ME 4th & 3 at ME 44, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:54TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 13, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:48ME 4th & 7 at TOL 18, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:09TOL 4th & 8 at ME 26, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:09ME 4th & 26 at ME 21, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:18ME 4th & 1 at ME 30, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:29TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:29TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:50TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:24TOL Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:52TOL Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEDrive 1FG
19 plays · 68 yds · 7:093% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.3%
Nigel Beckford run for 9 yds to the Maine 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+21
97.3%
Nigel Beckford run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-7
97.3%
Nigel Beckford run for a loss of 7 yards to the Maine 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+9
97.3%
Dan Collins pass complete to Marquise Adams for 9 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
97.0%
Dan Collins pass complete to Marquise Adams for 8 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
97.0%
Nigel Beckford rush for 1 yard to the TOLEDO39 (STEPEC, John;ROGERS, DeJuan), PENALTY MAINE illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+3
97.0%
Nigel Beckford run for 3 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
97.0%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jordan Dunn, broken up by Kadar HollmanSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+14
97.0%
Dan Collins pass complete to Marquise Adams for 14 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
96.9%
Nigel Beckford run for 1 yd to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-2
96.9%
Nigel Beckford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+16
97.0%
Dan Collins run for 16 yds to the Toled 13 Dan Collins fumbled, forced by Ja'Wuan Woodley, recovered by Maine Dan Collins for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
96.9%
Dan Collins pass complete to Julian Dunn for 6 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
96.9%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Marquise AdamsSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-5
97.0%
MAINE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
97.0%
Dan Collins pass incomplete, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
96.0%
Patrick Leonard 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:1996% → 96%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
96.0%
Kareem Hunt run for no gain to the Toled 14Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-5
96.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Corey Jones) to the Toled 9Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+6
96.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 6 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+85
96.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 85 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
96.1%
Nigel Beckford run for 2 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-2
96.1%
Nigel Beckford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 29Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
96.2%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jaleel ReedSimilar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+8
96.2%
James DeMartini punt for 54 yds , Corey Jones returns for 8 yds to the Toled 37 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Cody Thompson) to the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2796% → 96%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
95.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
95.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+1
95.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Kareem Hunt for 1 yd to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+2
95.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 42 yds , Najee Goode returns for 2 yds to the Maine 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
95.5%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jordan Dunn for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 36Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+2
95.6%
Zaire Williams run for 2 yds to the Maine 38Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
95.6%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Marquise AdamsSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+4
95.7%
James DeMartini punt for 46 yds , Corey Jones returns for 4 yds to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1195% → 95%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
95.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Paul Perschon) to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+10
95.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 10 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
95.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Terry Swanson for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
95.1%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.2%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Manny PattersonSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
95.2%
Terry Swanson run for 6 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
94.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael Roberts, broken up by Pat RicardSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+2
94.6%
Nick Ellis punt for 38 yds , Najee Goode returns for 2 yds to the Maine 41 MAINE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Maine 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
94.7%
Dan Collins sacked by John Stepec for a loss of 4 yards to the Maine 11Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 14
OWN 11
-2
94.8%
Zaire Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 9Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 16
OWN 9
+13
94.9%
Zaire Williams run for 13 yds to the Maine 22 MAINE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
94.9%
James DeMartini punt for 43 yds , Kadar Hollman returns for no gain to the Toled 35 Kadar Hollman fumbled, recovered by Maine Jeremy SalmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:296% → 6%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
93.7%
Zaire Williams run for 4 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
93.6%
Jordan Dunn run for no gain to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
93.9%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jordan Dunn, broken up by Earl MooreSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 6
OPP 31
0
94.3%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Zaire WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:0094% → 94%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
94.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
94.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+9
94.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 9 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
94.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Maine 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
94.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 15
50
+5
94.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Maine 45Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
94.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Maine 38Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
94.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+4
94.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 4 yds to the Maine 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
94.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 1 yd to the Maine 33Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+11
94.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Zach Yousey for 11 yds to the Maine 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
94.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
94.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 7 yds to the Maine 15Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+1
93.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Maine 14Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
94.1%
Jameson Vest 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
93.9%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Jeremy Salmon) to the Maine 24Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+7
94.0%
Nigel Beckford run for 7 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-10
93.9%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jaleel Reed for 9 yards to the MAINE40 (MOORE, Earl), PENALTY MAINE holding (Jason Simonovich) 10 yards to the MAINE21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+14
94.1%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jordan Dunn for 14 yds to the Maine 35Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
93.8%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jaleel Reed, broken up by DeJuan RogersSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 4
OWN 35
-5
94.1%
MAINE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Maine 30Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+3
94.3%
James DeMartini punt for 37 yds , Corey Jones returns for 3 yds to the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
96.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 64 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
95.5%
Nigel Beckford run for 2 yds to the Maine 24Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+10
95.6%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jared Osumah, QB hurry by STEPEC, John, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (WOODLEY,Ja'Wuan) 10 yards to the MAINE34, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
95.4%
Nigel Beckford run for 4 yds to the Maine 38Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+15
95.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Josh Teachey) to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.1%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jaleel Reed, broken up by Marc RemySimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
95.3%
Nigel Beckford run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
95.3%
Nigel Beckford run for no gain to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
95.4%
James DeMartini punt for 44 yds, downed at the Toled 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
96.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+2
96.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
95.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
95.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 5 yds to the Maine 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
95.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
95.6%
Logan Woodside pass intercepted Sterling Sheffield return for no gain to the Maine 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.1%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jared OsumahSimilar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
95.1%
Zaire Williams run for 5 yds to the Maine 38Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+8
95.0%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jordan Dunn for 8 yds to the Maine 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
94.8%
Zaire Williams run for 10 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
94.7%
Zaire Williams run for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jared OsumahSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-15
94.7%
MAINE Penalty, personal foul (Jamil Demby) to the Maine 45Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 21
OWN 45
+4
95.3%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 4 yds to the Maine 49Similar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
95.4%
James DeMartini punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:2595% → 99%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
95.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
95.3%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
95.2%
Kareem Hunt run for 1 yd to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
95.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
95.4%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+21
95.2%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
50
+6
95.6%
Logan Woodside run for 6 yds to the Maine 44Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
95.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 3 yds to the Maine 41Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+6
95.4%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 6 yds to the Maine 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Manny PattersonSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
95.6%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 9 yds to the Maine 26Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+5
95.5%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 5 yds to the Maine 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
98.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 21 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 17PUNT TD
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:292% → 0%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.3%
Dan Collins pass complete to Jaleel Reed for 11 yds to the Maine 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.2%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Nigel BeckfordSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
98.2%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jaleel Reed, broken up by Marc RemySimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-4
98.3%
Dan Collins pass complete to Nigel Beckford for a loss of 4 yards to the Maine 32Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+27
99.8%
TEAM punt blocked by Cody Thompson blocked by Cody Thompson Ronnie Jones return for 27 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jared Osumah, broken up by Kadar HollmanSimilar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.8%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 1 yd to the Maine 28Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Marquise AdamsSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+1
99.8%
James DeMartini punt for 56 yds , Corey Jones returns for 1 yd to the Toled 29 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (Ronnie Jones) to the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
99.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+89
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 89 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 11 yds to the Maine 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 2 yds to the Maine 39Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Zaire Williams run for 4 yds to the Maine 43Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Zaire Williams run for 1 yd to the Maine 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
99.9%
James DeMartini punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-10
99.9%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to THOMPKINS, Art for 4 yards to the TOLEDO27, out-of-bounds (Darrius Hart), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (KULON, Adam) 10 yards to the TOLEDO13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 16
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips, broken up by Sinmisola DemurenSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 16
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 16
OWN 13
+50
99.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 50 yds , Najee Goode returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:470% → 0%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 6 yds to the Maine 42Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+37
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 37 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
99.9%
Zaire Williams run for 2 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+1
99.9%
Zaire Williams run for 1 yd to the Toled 18Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Dan Collins pass incomplete to Jaquan BlairSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+46
99.9%
Patrick Leonard 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Desmond Frye return for 46 yds to the Maine 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23MISSED FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 12 yds to the Maine 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Zach YouseySimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
99.9%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the Maine 26Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to D'Vario Montgomery, broken up by Joshua HuffmanSimilar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
99.9%
Jameson Vest 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 2 yds to the Maine 28Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 7 yds to the Maine 35Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray run for 2 yds to the Maine 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray run for a loss of 3 yards to the Maine 34Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-10
99.9%
Darian Davis-Ray rush for 10 yards to the MAINE44 (HIGH, Josh), PENALTY MAINE holding (Jamil Demby) 10 yards to the MAINE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 23
OWN 24
-2
99.9%
Zaire Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 22Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 25
OWN 22
-1
99.9%
Zaire Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 21Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 26
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
James DeMartini punt for 48 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 12 yds to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 8 yds to the Maine 49Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Maine 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+43
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 43 yds to the Maine 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
100.0%
Darian Davis-Ray run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 19Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+4
100.0%
Zaire Williams run for 4 yds to the Maine 23Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+7
100.0%
Zaire Williams run for 7 yds to the Maine 30Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
100.0%
James DeMartini punt for 40 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:50
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 21 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+3.1
TD · Q2 3:29
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 64 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+1.9
PUNT · Q3 4:21
TEAM punt blocked by Cody Thompson blocked by Cody Thompson Ronnie Jones return for 27 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com