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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:44 · Nick Gasser punt for 37 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for no gain to the Wisc 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:45: Corey Clement run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +2.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:58: Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 13 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +2.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:10: Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 34 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Tom O'Leary 32 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:07: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Alec Ingold for 6 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 7:06AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q1 2:42WIS 4th & 1 at AKR 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.4%59% to convertField goal91.0%−0.494% to makePunt90.1%−1.3average punt
- Q2 12:33AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 29, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q2 10:59WIS 4th & 11 at AKR 45, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.127% to convertField goal93.3%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q2 3:12WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 13, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.6%average punt
- Q2 0:00AKR 4th & 15 at WIS 15, down 23Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.415% to convertField goalTheir call3.1%83% to makePunt1.8%−1.3average punt
- Q3 13:09AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 31, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q3 6:25WIS 4th & 13 at AKR 15, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.418% to convertField goalTheir call97.7%83% to makePunt96.3%−1.4average punt
- Q3 5:29AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 36, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q4 14:44AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 9:17AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 13, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:47AKR 4th & 19 at WIS 42, down 44Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.111% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.130% to makePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 8:05WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:45WIS Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:58WIS Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:10WIS Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:07WIS Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:17WIS Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:54WIS Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1TD15 plays · 83 yds · 6:2393% → 93%
Q1 11:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+11
92.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 11 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+10
92.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 10 yds to the Akron 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+5
92.0%
Houston, Bart pass incomplete to Rushing, George, PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the AKRON4, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:458% → 8%
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
92.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 5 yds to the Akron 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3DOWNS11 plays · 85 yds · 4:1892% → 92%
AKRDrive 4SF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:148% → 8%
WISDrive 5TD9 plays · 53 yds · 3:0892% → 94%
AKRDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:427% → 7%
WISDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1994% → 94%
AKRDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 71 yds · 1:437% → 7%
Q2 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+9
93.3%
Warren Ball run for 50 yds to the Wisc 27 Warren Ball fumbled, recovered by Wisc Sojourn Shelton , return for 9 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD10 plays · 73 yds · 4:0295% → 97%
Q2 7:42
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+13
94.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to George Rushing for 13 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+10
94.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 10 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
97.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 13 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10INT3 plays · 27 yds · 0:094% → 4%
WISDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5697% → 94%
Q2 3:12
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+55
94.2%
Anthony Lotti punt for 42 yds , JoJo Natson returns for 55 yds for a TD, (Tom O'Leary KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD4 plays · 67 yds · 0:2895% → 98%
AKRDrive 13END OF HALF15 plays · 60 yds · 1:453% → 2%
Q2 1:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+35
96.8%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 35 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
96.5%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to JoJo Natson for 4 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+15
96.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Derrick Tindal) to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+15
96.4%
Woodson, Thomas pass incomplete to Ball, Warren, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Watt, T.J.) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AKRON.Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
96.1%
Woodson, Thomas pass incomplete to Lane, Jerome, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (Wolf, Austin) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 22
+1
96.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Warren Ball for 1 yd to the Wisc 21Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+6
96.7%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 6 yds to the Wisc 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:353% → 3%
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
97.1%
Thomas Woodson sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 11 yards to the Akron 14Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+17
97.4%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Anthony Young for 17 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Nick Gasser punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15FG13 plays · 57 yds · 6:1798% → 98%
Q3 11:25
2ND & 9
50
+14
97.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Robert Wheelwright for 14 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+10
98.1%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 10 yds to the Akron 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
98.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to George Rushing for 1 yd to the Akron 9Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-6
98.3%
Bart Houston sacked by Ulysees Gilbert III for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.0%
Thomas Woodson pass complete to Jerome Lane for 10 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17TD10 plays · 83 yds · 3:5999% → 100%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
98.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 10 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
98.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 4 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+21
98.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 6 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Personal Foul (Deon'Tae Moore) to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
99.0%
Hornibrook, Alex pass incomplete, PENALTY AKRON pass interference (Hope, Larry) 15 yards to the AKRON13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Alec Ingold for 6 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:580% → 0%
WISDrive 19TD8 plays · 63 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q4 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+35
99.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 35 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 9:17
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+15
100.0%
Nick Gasser punt for 46 yds , Ricky Finco returns for 15 yds to the Akron 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD3 plays · 44 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
AKRDrive 22DOWNS14 plays · 47 yds · 5:360% → 0%
Q4 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Anthony Young for 5 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
100.0%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Anthony Young for 6 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
100.0%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Anthony Young for 4 yds to the Wisc 41Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
100.0%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Tyrell Goodman for 3 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-7
100.0%
Tra'Von Chapman sacked by Leon Jacobs for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 19
OPP 42
+10
100.0%
Tra'Von Chapman pass complete to Kwadarrius Smith for 10 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 9 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:10
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 34 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q2 4:58
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 13 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+2.5
TD · Q2 13:45
Corey Clement run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+2.3