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WMU

Western Michigan 22 at Northwestern 21

NU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:58 · James Coleman punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialGarbage-time factor
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Pregame prior+14.6Home team on offense+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:31: D'Wayne Eskridge 13 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick) — WMU win probability +17.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:39: Justin Jackson 46 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick) — NU win probability +16.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:17: Butch Hampton 30 Yd Field Goal — WMU win probability +11.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:13: Justin Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick) — NU win probability +18.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:38: Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WMU win probability +39.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:48NU 4th & 5 at WMU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54NU 4th & 1 at WMU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:58WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:57NU 4th & 8 at NU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:30WMU 4th & 8 at NU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:36NU 4th & 6 at NU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:01WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.6%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:37WMU 4th & 1 at NU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−2.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:28WMU 4th & 10 at NU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13WMU 4th & 8 at NU 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:21NU 4th & 1 at NU 34, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:56WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:03WMU 4th & 1 at NU 33, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−5.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:17WMU 4th & 6 at NU 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−14.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:38WMU 4th & 1 at NU 1, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−9.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−23.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:54NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:31WMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:39NU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:13NU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:38WMU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    53.8%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:5467% → 69%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
66.8%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 15 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 6 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+12
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 12 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
66.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
66.9%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
66.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Macan WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+14
66.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 14 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
67.0%
Warren Long run for 9 yds to the WMich 8Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+2
67.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 2 yds to the WMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
67.0%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 8Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
67.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 7 yds to the WMich 1Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the WMich 1Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.5%
Justin Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:4232% → 31%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
67.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
67.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 1 yd to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
68.2%
Zach Terrell run for 5 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
68.1%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
68.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 2 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
68.3%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
68.8%
James Coleman punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3669% → 69%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-5
69.1%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Robert Spillane for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 15
OWN 1
0
69.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 1Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 15
OWN 1
+7
69.0%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
68.8%
Hunter Niswander punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Darius Phillips at the WMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4MISSED FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:2131% → 30%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
68.7%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 12 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
68.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 7 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
68.2%
Zach Terrell run for 2 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+4
68.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
67.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
67.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
69.4%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to LeVante BellamySimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+50
70.3%
Butch Hampton 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:4270% → 71%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
70.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+7
70.9%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
71.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
71.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
71.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
70.5%
Hunter Niswander punt for 52 yds, downed at the WMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6FG
21 plays · 68 yds · 9:3728% → 30%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
71.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 5 yds to the WMich 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+13
71.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 13 yds to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
71.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+16
71.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 16 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
71.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
70.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
70.9%
Zach Terrell run for 3 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
71.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
70.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 25
OWN 32
-1
72.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 31Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 26
OWN 31
+9
72.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 9 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+18
72.8%
Zach Terrell run for 18 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
70.9%
Jarvion Franklin run for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
71.3%
Jarvion Franklin run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
71.8%
Zach Terrell run for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
71.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
70.2%
Zach Terrell sacked by Brett Walsh for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 38Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+8
72.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 8 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
71.9%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
70.4%
Butch Hampton 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 0 yds · 1:5969% → 70%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
69.3%
Justin Jackson run for 9 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+2
70.5%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
70.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 1
50
+4
71.0%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
71.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 6 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.2%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-1
71.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Asantay Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
70.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 37 yds · 2:3731% → 36%
Q2 2:50
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
68.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
68.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Chukwuma Okorafor) to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
67.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 3 yds to the Nwest 45Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+5
69.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+13
68.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 13 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
66.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jamauri Bogan for 5 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
66.3%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 2 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
66.1%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
67.3%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+27
64.2%
Butch Hampton 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
67.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:1335% → 57%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
65.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 10 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
63.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 20 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
62.1%
Jarvion Franklin run for 10 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
60.7%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+17
60.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 17 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
43.5%
D'Wayne Eskridge 13 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4549% → 47%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.4%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
49.7%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Caleb Bailey for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 20Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
47.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 14 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
47.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 49 yds, downed at the WMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1954% → 54%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
46.2%
Zach Terrell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
46.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+3
45.6%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Fabian Johnson for 3 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
46.0%
Derrick Mitchell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Matthew Harris at the Nwest 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:0049% → 69%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
48.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 10 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
50.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 8 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-1
51.6%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 46Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+46
68.5%
Justin Jackson 46 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FG
17 plays · 63 yds · 7:1335% → 53%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.7%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
63.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 5 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
63.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Corey Davis for 7 yds to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
61.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
61.1%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Jarvion Franklin for 11 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
60.6%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
60.1%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Michael HenrySimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+7
60.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Fabian Johnson for 7 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+4
62.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
58.0%
Jarvion Franklin run for 6 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+2
57.8%
Jarvion Franklin run for 2 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+5
59.5%
Jamauri Bogan run for 5 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
57.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 3 yds to the Nwest 13Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+1
57.4%
Tom Flacco run for 1 yd to the Nwest 12Similar
Q3 0:22
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
58.8%
Zach Terrell pass incomplete to Corey DavisSimilar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
47.1%
Butch Hampton 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:4754% → 82%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
54.3%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
57.4%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
56.0%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
57.9%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 12
50
+13
54.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 13 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
57.1%
Solomon Vault run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+37
56.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for 37 yds to the WMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.5%
Justin Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2424% → 59%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.6%
Zach Terrell run for 9 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
72.9%
Jamauri Bogan run for 12 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
72.6%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 6
50
+11
71.5%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 11 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
71.5%
Zach Terrell run for 6 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+4
68.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Michael Henry for 4 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
68.8%
Jamauri Bogan run for 4 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+19
70.8%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Donnie Ernsberger for 19 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.9%
Zach Terrell run for no gain to the Nwest 6Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
73.6%
Tom Flacco run for 5 yds to the Nwest 1Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.0%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the Nwest 1Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:2654% → 61%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
54.6%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+29
53.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 29 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
62.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 14 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
62.1%
Justin Jackson run for 12 yds to the WMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
61.1%
Clayton Thorson run for 5 yds Clayton Thorson fumbled, forced by Robert Spillane, recovered by WMich Davontae GinwrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18END OF GAME
11 plays · 25 yds · 2:3561% → 90%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
39.3%
Jamauri Bogan run for no gain to the WMich 20Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
39.4%
Zach Terrell pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 4 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
39.2%
Zach Terrell pass complete to Carrington Thompson for 9 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
30.4%
Jamauri Bogan run for 9 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 1
OWN 42
-1
24.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 41Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+6
21.1%
Jamauri Bogan run for 6 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
18.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-1
10.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:38
Jamauri Bogan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-39.2
TD · Q4 12:13
Justin Jackson 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)
+18.3
TD · Q3 12:31
D'Wayne Eskridge 13 Yd pass from Zach Terrell (Butch Hampton Kick)
-17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com