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UALB

UAlbany 22 at Buffalo 16

BUF
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2016 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadUALB aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreUALB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:06 · Jon Martin punt for 44 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 8 yds to the Buff 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+19.8Home team on offense+1.6Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:42: Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 33 yds for a TD, (Ethan Stark KICK) — UALB win probability +11.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 17 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +10.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:12: Adam Mitcheson 45 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +1.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:37: Neven Sussman pass complete to Brad Harris for 35 yds for a TD, (Neven Sussman pass to Brad Harris for Two-Point Conversion) — UALB win probability +42.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:38: Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 8 yds to the Alban 49 — UALB win probability +19.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UALB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:52BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:58UALB 4th & 4 at UALB 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14BUF 4th & 19 at UALB 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:30UALB 4th & 3 at UALB 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:49UALB 4th & 7 at BUF 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:53BUF 4th & 3 at UALB 15, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%−0.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:47UALB 4th & 12 at UALB 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:27BUF 4th & 11 at UALB 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:05UALB 4th & 9 at UALB 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:32BUF 4th & 5 at UALB 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:40UALB 4th & 1 at BUF 18, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%−2.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−9.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:12BUF 4th & 10 at UALB 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.2%−7.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:06UALB 4th & 16 at UALB 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:10BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UALB 4th & 4 at UALB 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:47BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 42, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−2.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:19BUF 4th & 1 at UALB 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−4.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−20.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:01BUF 4th & 6 at UALB 8, down 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−14.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:39UALB 4th & 2 at UALB 28, up 6
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UALB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:57UALB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:42UALB Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:24BUF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:37UALB Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    54.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    54.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
93.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+38
93.3%
Grant Rohach pass intercepted Michael Nicastro return for 38 yds to the Buff 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 2TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:437% → 7%
Q1 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
93.0%
Neven Sussman run for 2 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.6%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Anthony Manzo-Lewis for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Stark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
92.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
92.6%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Johnathan HawkinsSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
92.6%
Grant Rohach pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
92.6%
Kyle Deween punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
92.3%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for no gain to the Alban 15Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
92.3%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Zee Roberson for 11 yds to the Alban 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.3%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Dione Alston for no gain to the Alban 26Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
92.3%
Dione Alston run for 6 yds to the Alban 32Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
92.3%
Neven Sussman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
92.3%
Jon Martin punt for 45 yds, downed at the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1191% → 90%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
91.3%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 21 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
91.4%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Marcus McGill for 13 yds to the Alban 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Alban 43Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+18
91.5%
Grant Rohach run for 18 yds to the Alban 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
91.6%
Grant Rohach sacked by DaSharnte Thompson for a loss of 7 yards to the Alban 32Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 17
OPP 32
+4
91.5%
Grant Rohach run for 4 yds to the Alban 28Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 13
OPP 28
-6
91.4%
Grant Rohach sacked by Malachi Hoskins for a loss of 6 yards to the Alban 34Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+51
89.6%
Adam Mitcheson 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4410% → 11%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Neven Sussman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
89.6%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 2 yds to the Alban 36Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
89.4%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Austin Ellis for 5 yds to the Alban 41Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
89.4%
Jon Martin punt for 57 yds, downed at the Buff 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
89.1%
Grant Rohach run for 3 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+8
89.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
89.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
89.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
89.0%
Grant Rohach pass intercepted Jamal Robinson return for no gain to the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3013% → 14%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
87.1%
Neven Sussman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
87.1%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+2
87.2%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks for 2 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
86.5%
Ethan Stark 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:5687% → 86%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.8%
Grant Rohach run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+24
87.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 24 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
87.0%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alban 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
87.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alban 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-5
87.1%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (O'HAGAN, James) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
50
+18
86.8%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 18 yds to the Alban 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
87.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Alban 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+8
87.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Alban 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
87.5%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (JOSEPH, Roubben) 5 yards to the ALBANY27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 27
-9
87.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Alban 26 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Alban 36Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 24
OPP 36
+21
86.8%
Grant Rohach pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 21 yds to the Alban 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
87.5%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
87.2%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Alban 15Similar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
86.4%
Adam Mitcheson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
85.9%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 1 yd to the Alban 10Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+5
85.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 5 yds to the Alban 15Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 15
-8
85.8%
Neven Sussman sacked by Ishmael Hargrove for a loss of 8 yards to the Alban 7Similar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 12
OWN 7
0
86.4%
Jon Martin punt for 41 yds, downed at the Alban 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
85.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Alban 44Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
85.6%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-5
85.4%
Grant Rohach sacked by Julian Cox and Josh Wynn for a loss of 5 yards to the Alban 49Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
83.9%
Kyle Deween punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
82.6%
ALBANY Penalty, false start (Zee Roberson) to the Alban 15Similar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
82.7%
Neven Sussman pass incomplete to Zee Roberson, broken up by Cameron LewisSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-1
82.8%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Zee Roberson for a loss of 1 yard to the Alban 14Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+7
83.1%
Neven Sussman run for 7 yds to the Alban 21Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+6
83.4%
Jon Martin punt for 37 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 6 yds to the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:0383% → 83%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
83.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 8 yds to the Alban 44Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+1
83.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the Alban 43Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+6
83.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 6 yds to the Alban 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
83.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Alban 35Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
84.0%
Tyree Jackson run for 9 yds to the Alban 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
84.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
84.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 5 yds to the Alban 21Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
83.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+37
82.8%
Adam Mitcheson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 14TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 0:4221% → 32%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
78.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alban 46Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+21
79.3%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Zee Roberson for 6 yds to the BUFFALO 48 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Lewis) to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
67.6%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 33 yds for a TD, (Ethan Stark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:1871% → 83%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
71.7%
Tyree Jackson run for 1 yd to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
71.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 9 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
72.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
72.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+15
72.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 15 yds to the Alban 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
74.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Marcus McGill for 14 yds to the Alban 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
72.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 11 yds to the Alban 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
72.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
82.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 17 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
76.7%
Neven Sussman pass incomplete to Zee Roberson, broken up by Cameron SkipworthSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
76.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alban 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:1222% → 27%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
77.6%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 8 yds to the Alban 38Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+6
76.2%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 6 yds to the Alban 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
76.3%
Neven Sussman run for 11 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
75.8%
Neven Sussman run for 5 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
75.6%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 2 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+11
75.9%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Zee Roberson for 11 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
75.0%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
75.0%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 5 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
75.8%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for no gain to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+35
72.8%
Ethan Stark 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:2875% → 79%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 9 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+19
77.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 19 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Malcolm RobinsonSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
77.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alban 48Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+8
77.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kamathi Holsey for 8 yds to the Alban 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
78.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Alban 34Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
79.3%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Alban 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
79.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Kyle SakowskiSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
79.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Johnathan Hawkins, broken up by Abner LoganSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
77.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Rayshan ClarkSimilar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
79.2%
Adam Mitcheson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
77.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 3 yds to the Alban 34Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
77.5%
[SGUN], Neven Sussman pass incomplete to J. Crockett, PENALTY UB holding (WILLIAMS, Brand) 9 yards to the ALBANY43, 1ST DOWN ALBANY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
76.0%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Dione Alston for 1 yd to the Alban 44Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
76.2%
Neven Sussman pass incomplete to Brad Harris, broken up by Andrews DadeboeSimilar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-7
77.2%
Neven Sussman sacked by Jordan Collier for a loss of 7 yards to the Alban 37Similar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+8
80.0%
Jon Martin punt for 44 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 8 yds to the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
77.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+10
79.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 10 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+14
77.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 14 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
80.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-2
79.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
76.9%
Kyle Deween punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alban 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0625% → 24%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
74.7%
Neven Sussman pass incomplete to Zee Roberson, broken up by Jordan CollierSimilar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-5
75.0%
ALBANY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Alban 14Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+4
75.3%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 4 yds to the Alban 18Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+7
76.5%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Anthony Manzo-Lewis for 7 yds to the Alban 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+5
76.3%
Jon Martin punt for 47 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 5 yds to the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
76.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
75.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
74.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 7 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
75.7%
Kyle Deween punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 23TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:1526% → 70%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
73.6%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Zee Roberson for 6 yds to the Alban 25Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+8
72.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 8 yds to the Alban 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
72.6%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 11 yds to the Alban 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
70.1%
Dione Alston run for 7 yds to the BUFFALO 49 ALBANY Penalty, Offensive holding (Kevin Malloy) to the Alban 41Similar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 13
OWN 41
0
71.8%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for no gain to the Alban 41Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+24
72.2%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Jordan Crockett for 24 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
30.0%
Neven Sussman pass complete to Brad Harris for 35 yds for a TD, (Neven Sussman pass to Brad Harris for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24FUMBLE
22 plays · 74 yds · 5:3045% → 32%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
44.5%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to SCHRECK, Mason, PENALTY ALBANY roughing passer (Abner Logan) 15 yards to the UB41, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
47.6%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 42Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+11
45.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Malcolm Robinson for 11 yds to the Alban 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
49.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 10 yds to the Alban 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
50.1%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Alban 30Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-10
53.1%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to MCGILL, Marcus for 20 yards to the ALBANY10 (Mason Gray), PENALTY UB holding (O'HAGAN, James) 10 yards to the ALBANY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+7
47.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Alban 33Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-4
50.0%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (MABRY, Tyler) 4 yards to the ALBANY37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+14
44.1%
[SGUN], JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to SCHRECK, Mason (Jamal Robinson), PENALTY ALBANY pass interference (Jamal Robinson) 14 yards to the ALBANY23, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
48.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alban 20Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-2
48.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alban 22Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+3
45.5%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Alban 19Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+5
42.6%
[SGUN], ROHACH, Grant sacked for loss of 11 yards to the ALBANY30 (Brian Dolce;D. Timmons), PENALTY ALBANY offside (M. Hoskins) 5 yards to the ALBANY14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+2
43.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 2 yds to the Alban 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
48.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alban 8Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
37.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Jamal RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
34.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Marcus McGillSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+7
32.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds Tyree Jackson fumbled, forced by Mason Gray, recovered by AlbanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:1386% → 86%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
13.8%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 2 yds to the Alban 22Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
12.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 2 yds to the Alban 24Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
13.7%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 4 yds to the Alban 28Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+1
14.0%
Jon Martin punt for 44 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 1 yd to the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
28.2%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted Kyle Sakowski return for a loss of 4 yards to the Alban 25 ALBANY Penalty, personal foul (11 Yards) to the Alban 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
9.2%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 8 yds to the Alban 49Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-1
8.4%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alban 48Similar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-2
9.5%
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alban 46Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 5
OWN 46
-5
11.0%
ALBANY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Alban 41Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+15
11.5%
Jon Martin punt 39 yards to the UB20, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UB personal foul (MABRY, Tyler) 15 yards to the UB44, 1ST DOWN ALBANY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
8.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:37
Neven Sussman pass complete to Brad Harris for 35 yds for a TD, (Neven Sussman pass to Brad Harris for Two-Point Conversion)
-42.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:38
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 8 yds to the Alban 49
-19
TD · Q2 1:42
Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks run for 33 yds for a TD, (Ethan Stark KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com