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SJSU

San José State 16 at Fresno State 14

FRES
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSJSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSJSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:18 · Blake Cusick punt for 29 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior−1.0Home team on offense−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:40: Dontel James run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +9.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:45: Zach Kline run for 32 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +9.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 6:25: Bryce Crawford 23 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +15.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:05: Kenny Potter run for 7 yds to the SJSt 48 — SJSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:33: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 18 — SJSU win probability +19.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 9SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00SJSU 4th & 14 at FRES 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28FRES 4th & 2 at SJSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11SJSU 4th & 16 at SJSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:36FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 21 at FRES 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:33SJSU 4th & 2 at FRES 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.2%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:38SJSU 4th & 8 at SJSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:02FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:12SJSU 4th & 5 at FRES 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.7%−10.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:24SJSU 4th & 1 at FRES 4, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%−3.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−13.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:24FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−1.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00SJSU 4th & 6 at FRES 40, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−2.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:31FRES 4th & 16 at FRES 12, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−7.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:25SJSU 4th & 5 at FRES 5, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−18.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:18FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:36SJSU 4th & 7 at FRES 32, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 8.7 ptsPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%−8.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:29FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 17, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.9%−10.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SJSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:41SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:40FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:45FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
40.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 12 yds to the SJSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
40.3%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the SJSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-1
40.3%
Tim Crawley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+14
40.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 14 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
40.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 4 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
40.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-5
40.3%
POTTER, Kenny pass complete to JOHNSON, Rahshe for 2 yards to the FS46 (GLASS, Tyquwan;STANLEY, Robert), PENALTY SJ illegal formation 5 yards to the SJ47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+9
40.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Rahshead Johnson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
40.3%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+7
40.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 7 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-6
40.3%
Kenny Potter sacked by Jeff Camilli for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 48
+10
40.3%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 38 yds , KeeSean Johnson returns for 10 yds to the FrsSt 38 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 89 yds · 2:1142% → 43%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
42.2%
Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-1
42.1%
Zach Kline run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+53
41.8%
Zach Kline pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 53 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
43.0%
Zach Kline run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 41Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+2
43.7%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for 2 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+25
43.5%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for 25 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
44.0%
Zach Kline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
44.0%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the SJSt 13Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+7
43.7%
Zach Kline run for 7 yds to the SJSt 6Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 2
OPP 6
0
43.2%
Blake Cusick pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
43.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Rahshead Johnson for 5 yds to the SJSt 11Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
43.4%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Malik RobersonSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+7
43.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 7 yds to the SJSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
43.3%
Kenny Potter sacked by Nathan Madsen and Malik Forrester for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 12Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 16
OWN 12
0
43.4%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Rahshead Johnson, broken up by DeShawn PottsSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 16
OWN 12
0
43.8%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 16
OWN 12
0
44.2%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 53 yds, fair catch by KeeSean Johnson at the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
44.3%
Zach Kline sacked by Frank Ginda for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+8
44.0%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
44.7%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to Dontel JamesSimilar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
43.9%
Blake Cusick punt blocked by David Williams blocked by David WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2559% → 64%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
41.4%
Malik Roberson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
36.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 8 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:4138% → 37%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
38.3%
Dontel James run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-9
38.2%
Jamire Jordan run for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
37.5%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Andre ChachereSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
37.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds , Bailey Gaither returns for no gain to the SJSt 48 Bailey Gaither fumbled, recovered by FrsSt DeShawn PottsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
14 plays · 48 yds · 6:0040% → 50%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.0%
Dontel James run for no gain to the SJSt 48Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
39.7%
Zach Kline run for 2 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+12
39.3%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for 12 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
40.7%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for no gain to the SJSt 34Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-1
40.6%
Zach Kline run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 35Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+11
39.4%
Zach Kline pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 11 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
40.7%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+4
40.7%
Treyvon Green pass complete to Zach Kline for 4 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
40.7%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for 5 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
40.7%
Treyvon Green run for 6 yds to the SJSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
40.7%
Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 4Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
40.7%
KLINE, Zach pass incomplete to PECK, Aaron, PENALTY SJ pass interference (CHACHERE, Andre) 2 yards to the SJ2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.7%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the SJSt 1Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.1%
Dontel James run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
45.0%
Deontae Cooper run for 23 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
42.9%
Kenny Potter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+4
43.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 8
50
+6
43.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 6 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
43.9%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:5650% → 60%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
49.6%
Zach Kline pass complete to Michael Martens for 9 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+15
50.2%
Josh Hokit run for 15 yds to the SJSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
60.0%
Zach Kline run for 32 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
56.1%
Deontae Cooper run for 3 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
55.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 4 yds to the SJSt 37Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
55.6%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 3
OWN 37
-5
56.8%
CARRIZOSA, Mich pass complete to GINDA, Frank for 18 yards to the FS45 (BRYANT, Jaron), PENALTY SJ ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SJ32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+7
58.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 57 yds , KeeSean Johnson returns for 7 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5459% → 58%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
58.6%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+9
58.7%
Dontel James run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.0%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
58.7%
Zach Kline run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-5
57.9%
Zach Kline sacked by Eugene Taylor and Frank Ginda for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
58.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:0840% → 43%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
59.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 7 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
57.8%
Deontae Cooper run for 4 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
58.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 9 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+28
56.4%
Kenny Potter run for 28 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
57.0%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim Crawley, broken up by DeShawn PottsSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
57.5%
Kenny Potter pass intercepted, touchback. Stratton Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
62.6%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
62.1%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29 FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jamire Jordan) to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-3
61.6%
Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+17
60.5%
Dontel James run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
59.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:0939% → 40%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
61.5%
Malik Roberson run for 15 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
59.8%
Deontae Cooper run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+7
58.2%
Deontae Cooper run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
58.7%
Deontae Cooper run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
58.7%
Deontae Cooper run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
56.7%
Deontae Cooper run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
56.7%
Tim Crawley run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+11
59.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 11 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
56.7%
Deontae Cooper run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+2
56.7%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
63.5%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
60.4%
Bryce Crawford 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.6%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27 Dontel James fumbled, forced by Owen Roberts, recovered by SJSt Bryson BridgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:3143% → 46%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
56.7%
Deontae Cooper run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+1
56.7%
Deontae Cooper run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 19 Deontae Cooper fumbled, forced by Tyquwan Glass, recovered by SJSt Chris GonzalezSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+6
58.5%
Kenny Potter run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
56.7%
Deontae Cooper run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
56.7%
Deontae Cooper run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
58.5%
Deontae Cooper run for no gain to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+22
54.1%
Bryce Crawford 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
58.4%
Zach Kline run for a loss of 13 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+19
57.7%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for 19 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
57.6%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
57.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 50 yds, downed at the SJSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:5143% → 44%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
57.0%
Kenny Potter run for 12 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
56.3%
Deontae Cooper run for 2 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
56.1%
Kenny Potter run for 7 yds to the SJSt 40Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+4
53.8%
Kenny Potter run for 4 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
53.4%
Deontae Cooper run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
52.2%
Deontae Cooper run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
52.9%
Kenny Potter run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
52.8%
Deontae Cooper run for no gain to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
53.6%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
55.8%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
60.0%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+3
60.5%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+1
58.9%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
60.8%
Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-6
61.2%
Zach Kline sacked by Isaiah Irving for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 12
OWN 16
-4
58.7%
Zach Kline sacked by Isaiah Irving for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 16
OWN 12
0
57.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 25 yds, downed at the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:3946% → 62%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
54.1%
Deontae Cooper run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
52.2%
Deontae Cooper run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
52.2%
Deontae Cooper run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+12
52.2%
Kenny Potter run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
52.2%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
52.2%
Deontae Cooper run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
53.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Shane Smith, broken up by Stratton BrownSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
38.3%
Bryce Crawford 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0049% → 45%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.8%
Josh Hokit run for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
48.2%
Treyvon Green run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
49.7%
Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-2
49.7%
Treyvon Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
46.7%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Andre ChachereSimilar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
45.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 2:2971% → 82%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
29.1%
Kenny Potter run for 7 yds to the SJSt 48Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
28.5%
Deontae Cooper run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
27.2%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+9
27.2%
Deontae Cooper run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
25.5%
Deontae Cooper run for no gain to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
15.0%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+2
16.0%
Deontae Cooper run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
17.9%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
28.8%
Zach Kline pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
28.1%
Zach Kline pass complete to Justin Allen for 9 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 1
OWN 18
-1
27.7%
Zach Kline run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 2
OWN 17
-1
25.9%
Zach Kline run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:33
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 18
-19.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:05
Kenny Potter run for 7 yds to the SJSt 48
-16.1
FG · Q4 6:25
Bryce Crawford 23 yd FG GOOD
-15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com