2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:22 · Ethan Wood punt for 63 yds, downed at the NMex 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:48: Richard McQuarley run for 53 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +3.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:56: Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +8.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:12: Josh Allen run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +7.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:21: Diquon Woodhouse run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +12.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:22: Teriyon Gipson run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +10.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
- Q1 13:23WYO 4th & 4 at UNM 48, down 7Close callPunted · 52.8% before the snapGo for it52.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:14WYO 4th & 2 at WYO 37, down 21Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it22.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.9%−0.8average punt
- Q2 7:22WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, down 28Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it9.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%−1.9average punt
- Q2 5:21UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 43, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snapGo for it91.7%−1.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00WYO 4th & 16 at WYO 19, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.0%−2.014% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q4 11:41UNM 4th & 14 at UNM 45, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:23UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.2%97% to makeGo for two47.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:48UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.4%97% to makeGo for two52.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:56UNM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.0%97% to makeGo for two69.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:12WYO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.3%97% to makeGo for two35.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:21UNM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.0%97% to makeGo for two79.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:22UNM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:40UNM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:55WYO Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:22WYO Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.3%97% to makeGo for two3.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:51UNM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:48WYO Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%97% to makeGo for two2.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:47UNM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:12WYO Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.7%97% to makeGo for two0.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNMDrive 1TD5 plays · 93 yds · 1:3747% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
UNMDrive 3TD5 plays · 90 yds · 2:4149% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT15 plays · 25 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
52.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 11 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
52.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 12 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-15
52.0%
WYOMING Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Tanner Gentry) to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 21
OPP 24
-13
52.4%
Josh Allen sacked by Nik D'Avanzo for a loss of 13 yards to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 34
OPP 37
-13
52.8%
Josh Allen sacked by Donnie White for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard line WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD3 plays · 79 yds · 1:1860% → 69%
WYODrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4432% → 38%
UNMDrive 7TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5165% → 79%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
65.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Richard McQuarley for 28 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
UNMDrive 9TD2 plays · 79 yds · 0:4382% → 92%
WYODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 5:21
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
93.6%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 43 Lamar Jordan fumbled, forced by Andrew Wingard, recovered by NMex Matt Quarells , return for no gain to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 12
OWN 43
+4
93.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 50 yds , Austin Conway returns for 4 yds to the Wyom 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 12END OF HALF5 plays · 6 yds · 0:264% → 4%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
96.5%
Josh Allen sacked by Maurice Daniels for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
95.8%
Josh Allen run for 3 yds to the Wyom 28 WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (Drew Van Maanen) to the Wyom 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+5
95.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 5 yds to the Wyom 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
95.8%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner Gentry, broken up by Daniel HenrySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
95.9%
Ethan Wood punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14TD5 plays · 57 yds · 1:5898% → 99%
Q3 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+15
97.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Patrick Reed for 15 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
97.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Diquon Woodhouse) to the Wyom 46Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 18
OPP 49
+49
98.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Q' Drennan for 49 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:452% → 2%
UNMDrive 16FUMBLE8 plays · 39 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q3 7:46
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-15
99.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Patrick Reed) to the NMex 43Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 23
OWN 42
+30
99.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Richard McQuarley for 30 yds to the Wyom 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
99.2%
Daryl Chestnut run for 3 yds to the Wyom 25 Daryl Chestnut fumbled, forced by Taniela Lolohea, recovered by Wyom Marcus EppsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:561% → 4%
Q3 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.1%
HILL, Brian rush for 7 yards to the WY32 (JONES, Jahvon;OKONKWO, Kene), PENALTY NM offside defense (CARSON, Kimmie) 5 yards to the WY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
99.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 20 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 4 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+22
98.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Josh Harshman for 22 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3198% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19TD9 plays · 68 yds · 2:570% → 2%
UNMDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-4
98.9%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 42 Lamar Jordan fumbled, recovered by NMex Lamar JordanSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 46 yds , Austin Conway returns for no gain to the Wyom 1 Austin Conway fumbled, recovered by NMex Alex HartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:350% → 1%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
99.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 46 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner Gentry, broken up by Nias MartinSimilar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to James Price, broken up by Nias MartinSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+12
99.9%
ALLEN, Josh pass incomplete to HOLLISTER, J., PENALTY NM roughing passer (SANTOS, Ryan) 12 yards to the NM12, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
99.9%
WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (Jacob Hollister) to the NMex 22Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+8
100.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 8 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23END OF GAME6 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:21
Diquon Woodhouse run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q2 7:22
Teriyon Gipson run for 59 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+10
TD · Q1 1:56
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+8.2