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BOIS

Boise State 20 at Air Force 27

AF
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+5.8AF 39.4%Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q2 6:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:13 · Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Pregame prior−17.3Home team on offense+2.6Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:48: D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +3.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:13: Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +5.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:56: Shayne Davern run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +13.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:02: Luke Strebel 30 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +11.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:50: Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 75 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +16.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 9:48BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:30AF 4th & 23 at AF 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:36BOIS 4th & 8 at AF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 11 at AF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53BOIS 4th & 5 at BOIS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:13AF 4th & 8 at BOIS 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:11BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:05BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00BOIS 4th & 12 at AF 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.6%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 3 at AF 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:10BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:40BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.7%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:24BOIS 4th & 14 at AF 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 9 at BOIS 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:53BOIS 4th & 14 at BOIS 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:02AF 4th & 5 at BOIS 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−6.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:50AF 4th & 4 at BOIS 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−4.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−1.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:29BOIS 4th & 1 at AF 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−11.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−22.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:23BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:48AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:56AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:50BOIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:3776% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+56
23.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 56 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.8%
Jeremy McNichols 4 Yd Run (Tyler Rausa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:3124% → 27%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
23.9%
Timothy McVey run for 18 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
23.9%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
23.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
23.9%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+11
23.9%
Timothy McVey run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
23.9%
Arion Worthman run for 23 yds to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
23.9%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+8
23.9%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
23.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
26.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
26.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
26.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive holding (Brodie Hicks) to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
25.9%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
26.0%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
26.2%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
26.4%
Sean Wale punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:1227% → 27%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
27.2%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 16Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-1
27.2%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 15Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-13
27.3%
Arion Worthman sacked by David Moa for a loss of 13 yards to the AFA 2Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 23
OWN 2
+10
27.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 56 yds , Cedrick Wilson returns for 10 yds to the AFA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
27.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
27.3%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
27.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
28.0%
Sean Wale punt for 42 yds, downed at the AFA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:4228% → 31%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
28.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
28.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+7
28.2%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
28.6%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
28.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
28.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 8 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
29.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
29.4%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+5
28.8%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-3
28.8%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
30.5%
Steve Brosy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cedrick Wilson at the BoiSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
30.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
30.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
30.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
31.1%
Sean Wale punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 7:1132% → 39%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
32.1%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
32.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+10
31.3%
Arion Worthman run for 10 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
32.3%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+8
32.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
33.0%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
33.6%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+8
33.1%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
33.9%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
33.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
34.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
34.3%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 28 Arion Worthman fumbled, recovered by AFA Arion WorthmanSimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+7
33.5%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+2
33.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
39.4%
Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5662% → 50%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
38.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
38.6%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
39.3%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+11
50.2%
Sean Wale punt blocked by Brett Baldwin blocked by Brett Baldwin Tyler Weaver return for 11 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
48.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 10 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
47.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
48.1%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
49.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas Sperbeck, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q2 5:05
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
50.0%
Sean Wale punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0349% → 55%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
48.5%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+9
48.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
50.2%
Tyler Williams run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+3
50.7%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
54.5%
Tyler Williams pass intercepted Leighton Vander Esch return for no gain to the BoiSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:2146% → 46%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
54.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+22
54.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 22 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
51.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+43
52.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 43 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
50.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 7Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
53.2%
Thomas Sperbeck run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
54.3%
Tyler Rausa 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.6%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
53.9%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
52.1%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
51.1%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
52.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
55.0%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
53.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
51.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cedrick Wilson at the BoiSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
55.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+4
55.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
56.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
57.6%
Sean Wale punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:5262% → 77%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+47
62.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 34 yds to the AIRFORCE 26 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (Chanceller James) to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
63.6%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
76.8%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16FG
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:1625% → 27%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
74.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 14 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
73.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 9 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
72.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
73.2%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+57
72.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 57 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
68.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
68.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the AFA 4Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
70.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the AFA 4 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
72.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
73.5%
Tyler Rausa 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:1875% → 80%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
74.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
74.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+7
73.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 7 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
75.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for 7 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+6
76.2%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
50
+4
76.4%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
76.1%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
75.0%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
73.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+2
80.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 34 yds , Cedrick Wilson returns for 2 yds to the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-4
79.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 14
OWN 13
0
79.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 14
OWN 13
0
80.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 14
OWN 13
+28
81.2%
Sean Wale punt for 54 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 28 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 5:1083% → 94%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
82.9%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
82.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
82.2%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
82.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
82.9%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
82.9%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
82.9%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+1
82.0%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
93.5%
Luke Strebel 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
77.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 75 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.5%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
83.0%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
82.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+7
83.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 7 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
83.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
84.8%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
85.2%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
84.4%
Ronald Cleveland run for no gain to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
82.9%
Steve Brosy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cedrick Wilson at the BoiSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · 89 yds · 0:0015% → 19%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+39
85.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 39 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+47
81.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 47 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
77.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the AFA 4Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
77.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.6%
Brett Rypien run for no gain to the AFA 2 Brett Rypien fumbled, forced by Brodie Hicks, recovered by AFA Haji Dunn Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:4193% → 96%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
93.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+2
94.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+3
94.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
94.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 17
-2
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 15
-1
96.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:50
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 75 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q3 8:56
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+13.2
FG · Q4 9:02
Luke Strebel 30 yd FG GOOD
+11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com