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USU

Utah State 37 at Nevada 38

NEV
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.6NEV 44.0%Spencer Pettit 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 3:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:37 · Spencer Pettit 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense+1.1Pregame prior−9.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:38: Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +12.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:09: Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +12.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:53: James Butler run for 15 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +23.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 11:03: Tonny Lindsey run for 68 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — USU win probability +19.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:05: Ty Gangi run for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +61.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 9 of 10USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:26USU 4th & 2 at NEV 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:03USU 4th & 11 at USU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:37NEV 4th & 3 at USU 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    40.8%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:52USU 4th & 6 at NEV 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:45NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:54NEV 4th & 2 at USU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−1.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:11USU 4th & 3 at NEV 3, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−10.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:05NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:50USU 4th & 1 at NEV 4, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%−3.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:14USU 4th & 10 at USU 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−3.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:08NEV 4th & 4 at USU 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−13.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:44USU 4th & 4 at USU 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.5
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:37NEV 4th & 1 at USU 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−12.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−17.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:05NEV 4th & 6 at USU 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−16.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−23.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:02USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:25USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:54USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:09NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:53NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:03USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:19NEV Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:05NEV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−15.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:3461% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.6%
Tonny Lindsey run for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
38.6%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
38.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 10 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
38.6%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+13
38.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 13 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
38.6%
Tonny Lindsey run for 12 yds to the Nevad 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
38.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Zach Van Leeuwen, broken up by Dameon BaberSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
38.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 6 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+2
38.6%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
39.7%
Brock Warren 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
39.9%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
39.7%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
39.6%
Alex Boy punt for 48 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
40.2%
Kent Myers run for 18 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
39.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion Tarver, broken up by Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
39.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 46 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
40.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete, broken up by Hausia SekonaSimilar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+1
40.5%
Aaron Dalton punt for 11 yds, downed at the NEVADA 43 UTAH ST Penalty, illegal kicking (Aaron Dalton) to the UthSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 5:1641% → 44%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
41.4%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+4
41.5%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
41.3%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
41.6%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the UthSt 29 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 14
OPP 39
+9
41.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 9 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
41.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.6%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
41.6%
Ty Gangi run for 2 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
41.4%
Ty Gangi run for no gain to the UthSt 18 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
44.0%
Spencer Pettit 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:2956% → 60%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
44.0%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+1
43.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+17
44.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 17 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
43.1%
Gerold Bright run for 17 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
42.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+37
39.6%
Kent Myers run for 37 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:5241% → 40%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
40.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 5 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
40.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
40.3%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
40.8%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
40.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
40.6%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
40.2%
Alex Boy punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:2160% → 64%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
40.1%
Kent Myers run for 2 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+9
40.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
50
+1
39.6%
Damion Hobbs run for 1 yd to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+19
39.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 19 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
39.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 31Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 11
OPP 31
-7
39.3%
Justen Hervey run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+12
40.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Gerold Bright for 12 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
36.0%
Dominik Eberle 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
37.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
37.2%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 33Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-5
36.5%
Ty Gangi sacked by Jalen Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
35.6%
Alex Boy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 2:2566% → 76%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
34.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Gerold Bright for 13 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
33.5%
Tonny Lindsey run for 15 yds to the NEVADA 39 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Nevad 49Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+14
33.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 14 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
33.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 8 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+9
32.9%
Kent Myers run for 9 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
31.5%
Kent Myers run for 2 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-5
31.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, (Zach Van Leeuwen) to the Nevad 21Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+19
31.8%
Rayshad Lewis run for 19 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.3%
Kent Myers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:4226% → 39%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
25.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
25.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the Nevad 24Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+27
25.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to James Butler for 27 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
27.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
27.6%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+13
27.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to James Butler for 13 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
28.1%
Andrew Celis run for 10 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
26.5%
Ty Gangi run for 8 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+4
26.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 4 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.9%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
34.3%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
33.4%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
32.4%
Alex Boy punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
1 play · 59 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
21.0%
Rayshad Lewis run for 59 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4523% → 38%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Mohelika Uasike) to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+7
24.0%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
23.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
24.4%
Ty Gangi run for 9 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
25.1%
Ty Gangi run for 11 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
25.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
25.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the UthSt 32Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
25.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+3
24.7%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
25.7%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
25.7%
BUTLER, James rush for loss of 2 yards to the USU21 (CARMEN, Brock), PENALTY USU offside (ALI'IFUA, Ricky) 5 yards to the USU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+7
25.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the UthSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 5:5870% → 77%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
30.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for 4 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
29.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
29.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
29.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+10
28.9%
Kent Myers run for 10 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
28.5%
Tonny Lindsey run for 15 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
28.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
28.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+18
28.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Gerold Bright for 18 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
28.0%
Justen Hervey run for 2 yds to the Nevad 3Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
28.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for no gain to the Nevad 3Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
28.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to LaJuan HuntSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
23.4%
Dominik Eberle 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
23.6%
Ty Gangi run for 1 yd to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
23.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
22.8%
Ty Gangi run for no gain to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+14
22.0%
Alex Boy punt for 53 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 14 yds to the UthSt 49 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jentz Painter) to the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:5677% → 80%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
22.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 4 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+10
22.9%
Rayshad Lewis run for 10 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
22.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
21.9%
Kent Myers run for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+30
22.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 30 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
19.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+2
19.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+43
20.3%
Kent Myers pass intercepted Jaden Sawyer return for 43 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:4825% → 49%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
25.0%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
48.9%
James Butler run for 15 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 0:4463% → 83%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
36.9%
Gerold Bright run for 9 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+68
17.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 68 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
19.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 36Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
18.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Brandon Scott, broken up by Christopher 'UngaSimilar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+13
17.0%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 13 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
20.3%
Ty Gangi sacked by Ricky Ali'ifua for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 13 Ty Gangi fumbled, recovered by UthSt Mohelika Uasike , return for 0 yards , return for 30 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5087% → 93%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
12.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
12.8%
Kent Myers run for 4 yds to the Nevad 8Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
13.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 4 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+22
7.5%
Dominik Eberle 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2711% → 20%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
10.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Andrew CelisSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
10.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
9.5%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Anthony WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
20.4%
Elijah Mitchell 0 Yd Fumble Return (Spencer Pettit Kick), (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
19.6%
Rayshad Lewis run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+5
20.8%
Kent Myers run for 5 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
21.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion Tarver, broken up by Asauni Rufus UTAH ST Penalty, F0 ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
22.4%
Aaron Dalton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 68 yds · 0:0028% → 30%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
28.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
27.1%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+39
25.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Andrew Celis for 39 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
35.5%
James Butler run for 12 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
35.5%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+2
35.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
35.5%
Ty Gangi run for 2 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
35.5%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
33.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+2
30.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to James Butler for 2 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1390% → 89%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
10.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+4
9.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
10.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the UthSt 9Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
11.3%
Aaron Dalton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 26TD
12 plays · 51 yds · 1:3222% → 88%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
21.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
21.1%
James Butler run for 16 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
27.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
27.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+10
21.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to James Butler for 10 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
24.6%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
30.3%
TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY USU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the USU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+11
30.3%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY USU pass interference (GRAY, Daniel) 11 yards to the USU8, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
30.3%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jarred Gipson, broken up by Ricky Ali'ifuaSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
30.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 2 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
27.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.1%
Ty Gangi run for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:05
Ty Gangi run for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
+61.1
TD · Q4 11:53
James Butler run for 15 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
+23.9
TD · Q4 11:03
Tonny Lindsey run for 68 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) NEVADA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com