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UNM

New Mexico 31 at Colorado State 49

CSU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:52 · Sam Gentry punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+12.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:48: Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:46: Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:56: Jason Sanders 51 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +5.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:54: Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 65 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:32: Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +7.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UNM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:52UNM 4th & 8 at CSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:44UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:00UNM 4th & 4 at CSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:56UNM 4th & 17 at UNM 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:40UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:56UNM 4th & 17 at CSU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:00UNM 4th & 3 at CSU 5, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:14UNM 4th & 18 at UNM 40, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:17CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 9:44CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:09CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:18UNM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:48CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:46CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:54CSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:32UNM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:14CSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:38CSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:28UNM Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:10UNM Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
62.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the COLOST 48 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 17
OWN 42
+4
62.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 46Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+5
62.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
62.5%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
62.6%
Sam Gentry punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0263% → 65%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
62.5%
STEVENS, Nick pass incomplete to GALLUP, Michael, PENALTY NM pass interference (MARTIN, Nias) 15 yards to the CSU35, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
62.5%
Nick Stevens sacked by Garrett Hughes for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+2
62.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+15
62.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 15 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+34
62.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 34 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
62.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the NMex 19Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
64.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 19 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
64.0%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 28Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
64.2%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+52
64.4%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 42 yds, downed at the COLOST 30 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Detrich Clark) to the ColSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5565% → 70%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
64.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
64.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
65.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+10
64.9%
Nick Stevens run for 10 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+20
65.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 20 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
65.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 25 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
65.5%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 14Similar
Q1 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
70.6%
Nick Stevens run for 14 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
Q1 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OWN 30
-5
69.9%
DAVIS, Braxton kickoff 69 yards to the NM1, LILLY, Elijah return to the NM25 (JOHNSON, Shun), PENALTY CSU offside (PETERS, Bryce) 5 yards to the CSU25, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:4232% → 34%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
68.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+15
68.4%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 15 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
67.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+5
67.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 5 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
68.1%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+7
68.6%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 7 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
67.7%
Austin Apodaca run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 24 Austin Apodaca fumbled, recovered by NMex Austin ApodacaSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 13
OPP 24
0
68.2%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+24
65.8%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 24 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1867% → 66%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
67.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 6 yds Robert Ruiz fumbled, forced by Alex Hart,Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
67.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
66.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
66.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
66.8%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-9
67.4%
Austin Apodaca sacked by Richard King for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 13Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+8
67.8%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 41 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 8 yds to the NMex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:4969% → 77%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
69.0%
Detrich Clark run for 9 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+3
69.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
69.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
69.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Garrett Hughes) to the NMex 25Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+18
69.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 18 yds to the NMex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
69.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
74.7%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Emmanuel Harris, broken up by Justin SweetSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
74.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
74.9%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
75.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 80 yds, downed at the ColSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 98 yds · 4:0376% → 90%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
76.2%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+36
76.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 36 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
77.3%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+12
77.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 12 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
77.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+15
77.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 15 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
77.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 9 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+2
77.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
90.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 3:5012% → 15%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
87.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 11 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
87.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+10
86.6%
Lamar Jordan run for 10 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
86.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+6
85.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
85.8%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
86.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-2
89.5%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Arjay Jean for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 17
OPP 34
0
90.6%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 17
OPP 34
+51
85.1%
Jason Sanders 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
85.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0685% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
85.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+65
95.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 65 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:226% → 11%
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+32
93.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 32 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
93.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 11 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
93.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
93.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+4
93.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
93.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the ColSt 11Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
93.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+3
93.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+4
96.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:1794% → 99%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
93.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 11 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
93.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
98.5%
Detrich Clark run for 32 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 9 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
97.4%
Daryl Chestnut run for 12 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.0%
Lamar Jordan run for no gain to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
97.0%
Daryl Chestnut run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 8
50
-5
97.0%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Reno Henderson) to the NMex 45Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-5
97.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Reno Henderson) to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 18
OWN 40
0
97.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Dameon Gamblin, broken up by Jamal HicksSimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 18
OWN 40
+1
97.5%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 39 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 1 yd to the ColSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:5099% → 100%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.0%
Detrich Clark run for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+75
99.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD
18 plays · 92 yds · 7:030% → 1%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
99.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the NMex 14Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+12
99.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 12 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Patrick Reed, broken up by Evan ColoritoSimilar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 7 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+15
99.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Tyree Simmons) to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
99.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
99.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+12
99.9%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 12 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
99.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the ColSt 23Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
Diquon Woodhouse run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-2
99.9%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
99.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 18 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.7%
Olabisi Johnson run for 13 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
99.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-15
99.8%
KINSEY, Marvin rush for no gain to the CSU44 (SANTOS, Ryan), PENALTY CSU illegal block (ZERBLIS, Fred) 15 yards to the CSU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 19
OWN 29
+6
99.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+5
99.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 51 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 5 yds to the NMex 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:520% → 2%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+79
98.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 79 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
99.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 9 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+16
99.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 16 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-9
99.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the NMex 29 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Nolan Peralta) to the NMex 39Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 17
OPP 39
+10
99.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 10 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-2
99.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:46
Izzy Matthews run for 14 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q3 13:54
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 65 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 9:48
Nick Stevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com