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AF

Air Force 41 at San José State 38

SJSU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:03 · Michael Carrizosa punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Pregame prior−5.8Home team on offense−5.5Garbage-time factor−3.1Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:34: Arion Worthman run for 25 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +14.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:35: D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +14.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 3 yds for a TD, (K. Potter Run For Two-point Conversion) — SJSU win probability +27.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:00: Kenny Potter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK) — SJSU win probability +44.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:32: Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 22 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +61.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 14:51AF 4th & 5 at SJSU 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−3.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:44SJSU 4th & 3 at AF 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−1.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:54SJSU 4th & 1 at AF 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−6.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:54AF 4th & 1 at AF 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 11 at AF 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:31SJSU 4th & 20 at SJSU 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−4.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:03AF 4th & 2 at SJSU 4, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%−3.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−22.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:03SJSU 4th & 10 at AF 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:41AF 4th & 10 at AF 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−3.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:36SJSU 4th & 10 at SJSU 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−9.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:34SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:12AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:59SJSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:54SJSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:48AF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:34AF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:35AF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:00SJSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:00SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−1.8
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:32AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SJSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2624% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 5 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
23.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 14 yds to the SJSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
23.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 21 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
23.7%
Kenny Potter run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+10
23.7%
Kenny Potter run for 10 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
23.7%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-2
23.7%
Tim Crawley run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
25.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 25 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:1874% → 74%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+36
25.6%
Timothy McVey run for 36 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
25.4%
Arion Worthman run for 13 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
25.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+8
25.3%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the SJSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
25.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the SJSt 9Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
25.3%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
26.1%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1327% → 32%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.6%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
26.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 8 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
26.8%
Malik Roberson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-7
27.1%
Kenny Potter sacked by Jacob Onyechi for a loss of 7 yards to the SJSt 35Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+13
26.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 13 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
27.1%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
27.0%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the SJSt 49Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+34
26.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 34 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
27.3%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
32.4%
Kenny Potter run for 17 yds for a TD, (Bryce Crawford PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:0869% → 68%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
30.8%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
30.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
30.3%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
30.1%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the SJSt 45Similar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
30.0%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
30.1%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 42Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+30
30.3%
Arion Worthman run for 30 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
29.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 10Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
29.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jacobi Owens for 3 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
33.0%
Jalen Robinette pass incomplete to Arion WorthmanSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
32.1%
Luke Strebel 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 5TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 4:5033% → 42%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
32.6%
Malik Roberson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 21Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+3
32.5%
Malik Roberson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 24Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+9
32.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 9 yds to the SJSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
32.8%
Kenny Potter run for 15 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
33.8%
Malik Roberson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 8
50
+5
33.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Billy Freeman for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
33.7%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Malik RobersonSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+14
32.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 14 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
34.4%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Rahshead Johnson for 9 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+13
34.4%
Deontae Cooper run for 13 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.4%
Deontae Cooper run for no gain to the AFA 9Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.4%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
33.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 8 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.3%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:0657% → 64%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.6%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
41.7%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
42.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
41.7%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
41.2%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
41.1%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
41.9%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
40.9%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
40.8%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the SJSt 46Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+10
40.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 10 yds to the SJSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
40.6%
Arion Worthman run for 14 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
39.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+9
39.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the SJSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
39.4%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the SJSt 7Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
36.0%
Tyler Williams run for 7 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 7FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 2:4841% → 54%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
41.2%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 4 yds to the SJSt 39Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
43.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 10 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
43.5%
Shane Smith run for 5 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+7
43.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Shane Smith for 7 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
44.0%
POTTER, Kenny pass complete to COTTRELL, Thai for 25 yards to the AF14 (WASHINGTON, Jes), PENALTY SJ holding (VELICHKO, Nate) 10 yards to the AF49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 20
OPP 49
-6
44.6%
Kenny Potter sacked by Jalen Lacy for a loss of 6 yards to the SJSt 45Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 26
OWN 45
+12
42.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 12 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 14
OPP 43
-5
42.1%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Rahshead Johnson) to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+19
41.7%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Rahshead Johnson for 19 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
45.5%
POTTER, Kenny pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Rahshe (LADIPO, Roland), PENALTY AF pass interference (LADIPO, Roland) 15 yards to the AF14, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+31
53.5%
Bryce Crawford 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.1%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-7
46.8%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
49.6%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
50.3%
Steve Brosy punt for 27 yds, downed at the SJSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 9INT
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
55.0%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
55.2%
Malik Roberson run for 5 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
55.2%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+23
55.1%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Rahshead Johnson for 23 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
55.5%
Malik Roberson run for 2 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-10
55.5%
POTTER, Kenny pass incomplete to HOLMES, Justin, PENALTY SJ holding (GONZALEZ, Chris) 10 yards to the AF24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 18
OPP 24
+48
54.4%
Kenny Potter pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for 33 yds to the AFA 0 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Samuel Byers) to the AFA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:1348% → 67%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
52.0%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
52.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 8 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+7
52.0%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
50.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+9
49.1%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
50
+3
48.2%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
48.2%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the SJSt 41Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
47.9%
WORTHMAN, Arion rush quarterback sneak for 1 yard to the SJ40 (ROBERTS, Owen;OREGLIA, Nick), PENALTY SJ offside 5 yards to the SJ36, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
48.2%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the SJSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
33.4%
Arion Worthman run for 25 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0039% → 40%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
39.1%
Kenny Potter run for 12 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
39.7%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Rahshead JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
39.5%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+10
37.8%
POTTER, Kenny sacked for loss of 4 yards to the SJ15 (ALEXANDER III), PENALTY AF holding (BRONKAR, Cody) 10 yards to the SJ29, 1ST DOWN SJ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
40.1%
Kenny Potter sacked by Haji Dunn Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 20 Kenny Potter fumbled, recovered by AFA Claude Alexander III , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the SJSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4866% → 80%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
33.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 16Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+12
33.7%
Arion Worthman run for 12 yds to the SJSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
19.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+15
23.1%
POTTER, Kenny pass intercepted by ROSS, Grant at the SJ20, ROSS, Grant return to the SJ10 (HOLMES, Justin), PENALTY AF holding 10 yards to the SJ26, NO PLAY, PENALTY AF personal foul (CLEVELAND, Kell) 15 yards to the SJ41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
25.9%
Kenny Potter run for 2 yds to the SJSt 43Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-4
25.8%
Malik Roberson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SJSt 39Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 12
OWN 39
-8
23.1%
Kenny Potter sacked by Samuel Byers for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 31Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 20
OWN 31
+29
22.0%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 49 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 29 yds to the AFA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+50
18.7%
Arion Worthman pass intercepted Andre Chachere return for 50 yds to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1626% → 53%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
26.1%
Kenny Potter run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+7
26.1%
Malik Roberson run for 7 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
26.1%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
26.1%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Tim CrawleySimilar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+10
24.4%
Kenny Potter run for 10 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
25.2%
Malik Roberson run for 4 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
25.2%
Malik Roberson run for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.5%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 3 yds for a TD, (K. Potter Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5757% → 70%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
43.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 52 yds to the SJSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
36.1%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the SJSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
36.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
36.1%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the SJSt 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
36.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+5
37.9%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the SJSt 4Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+21
30.0%
Luke Strebel 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
34.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 10 yds to the SJSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
35.6%
Malik Roberson run for 7 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Lochlin Deeks) to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
40.9%
Deontae Cooper run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-2
40.6%
Deontae Cooper run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
38.8%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Rahshead JohnsonSimilar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
34.4%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0071% → 68%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+25
29.5%
Arion Worthman run for 25 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.6%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
28.3%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
26.5%
Arion Worthman sacked by Frank Ginda for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
31.7%
Steve Brosy punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0033% → 86%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
32.8%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Justin Holmes for 3 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-5
32.3%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (Billy Freeman) to the SJSt 18Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+21
31.9%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Rahshead Johnson for 21 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+42
35.3%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 42 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
41.4%
Kenny Potter run for 4 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+10
41.4%
Deontae Cooper run for 10 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
41.4%
Deontae Cooper run for 4 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.0%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 71 yds · 0:0031% → 40%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
69.4%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+9
67.0%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
66.7%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+10
65.2%
Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the SJSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
63.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 15 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
60.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 23Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
60.5%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the SJSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
60.5%
Ronald Cleveland run for 16 yds to the SJSt 1 Ronald Cleveland fumbled, forced by Chad Miller, recovered by SJSt Jermaine KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0388% → 88%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
88.3%
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd to the SJSt 2Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
89.3%
Kenny Potter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
88.6%
Kenny Potter pass incomplete to Justin HolmesSimilar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 9
OWN 2
-1
87.7%
SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (-1 Yards) to the SJSt 1Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+5
87.7%
Michael Carrizosa punt for 37 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 5 yds to the SJSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:4632% → 95%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
67.9%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the SJSt 30Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+5
66.4%
WORTHMAN, Arion rush left for 2 yards to the SJ28 (AGUAYO, Ethan), PENALTY SJ offside 5 yards to the SJ25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+3
66.4%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
5.1%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 22 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.2%
Kenny Potter pass complete to Tim Crawley for 15 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
24.0%
Kenny Potter sacked by Patrick Healy and Samuel Byers for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 35Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
20.4%
Kenny Potter pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:32
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 22 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-61.4
TD · Q4 4:00
Kenny Potter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bryce Crawford KICK)
+44.6
TD · Q3 0:00
Kenny Potter pass complete to Malik Roberson for 3 yds for a TD, (K. Potter Run For Two-point Conversion)
+27.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com