Try the model
NEV

Nevada 26 at New Mexico 35

UNM
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · University Stadium (NM)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadNEV aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreNEV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:24 · Alex Boy punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior+18.9Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:13: Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 12 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK) — NEV win probability +11.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:17: Tyrone Owens run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +11.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:50: Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +11.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:31: Ty Gangi pass complete to Ahki Muhammad for 57 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NEV win probability +22.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 2:54: Austin Apodaca run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +19.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:51UNM 4th & 2 at NEV 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    77.7%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:31UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:24NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:17UNM 4th & 1 at NEV 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−2.0
    66% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−7.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:04NEV 4th & 2 at UNM 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%−1.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−6.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:50NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:11UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 11, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−2.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:23UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 33, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:41NEV 4th & 9 at NEV 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−3.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:46UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 30, up 9
    Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:45UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:36NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:13NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:17UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:50UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:16UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:19NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    14.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:31NEV Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:54UNM Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1577% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
76.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
76.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
76.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 7 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+7
76.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
76.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 7 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+7
76.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
76.8%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+4
76.8%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Tyrone Owens for 4 yds to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+14
76.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 14 yds to the Nevad 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.8%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
76.9%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
77.0%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Ryan Santos return for 6 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3INT
14 plays · 33 yds · 5:0377% → 78%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.4%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
77.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 13 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
77.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Tyrone Owens) to the Nevad 37Similar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+2
77.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+7
77.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 7 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+8
77.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 8 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
77.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the Nevad 19Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
77.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+2
77.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+2
77.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
78.5%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the Nevad 9Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
78.5%
Richard McQuarley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 12Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
78.1%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted, touchback. Elijah Mitchell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3523% → 30%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
77.3%
James Butler run for 9 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
76.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 6 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
77.1%
James Butler run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
50
-5
76.3%
James Butler run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+19
77.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 19 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
76.3%
Ahki Muhammad run for 17 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
75.7%
Ty Gangi run for 10 yds to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.7%
James Butler run for no gain to the NMex 9Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
70.2%
James Butler run for 9 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
73.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
73.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
73.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
72.8%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
71.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 3 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
71.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 20Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
71.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
72.5%
Alex Boy punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 54 yds · 0:0073% → 75%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
73.1%
Lamar Jordan run for 1 yd to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST down Teriyon Gipson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
74.2%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 15
50
+26
73.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 26 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
74.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 15 yds to the Nevad 9 Lamar Jordan fumbled, forced by Gabriel Sewell, recovered by Nevad Jaden SawyerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 2:2829% → 42%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
71.1%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+20
71.2%
James Butler run for 20 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Ahki Muhammad for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+14
70.4%
James Butler run for 14 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
68.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
68.7%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+43
69.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 43 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
57.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 12 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5661% → 74%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 15 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
62.4%
Austin Apodaca run for 14 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
63.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 8 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
63.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
64.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 4 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
64.7%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
63.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+25
72.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 25 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
Q2 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
74.3%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, FOR (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 2:1333% → 36%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
67.3%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 8 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
66.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
66.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
65.2%
GANGI, Ty pass incomplete to RICHARDSON, J., PENALTY NM pass interference (CROSBY, Lee) 15 yards to the NM37, 1ST DOWN NV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.4%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
64.4%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (James Butler) to the NMex 42Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
65.9%
Ty Gangi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 15
OPP 42
-5
66.7%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+18
66.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 18 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+47
64.0%
Spencer Pettit 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
69.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
65.2%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
65.5%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
66.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Nias MartinSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+6
67.5%
Alex Boy punt for 45 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 6 yds to the NMex 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
14 plays · 63 yds · 7:4169% → 83%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
69.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
70.2%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Patrick Reed for 13 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
71.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
71.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+12
70.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 12 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
71.8%
Daryl Chestnut run for 7 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
71.8%
Daryl Chestnut run for 1 yd to the Nevad 20Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
70.8%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
71.8%
Austin Apodaca run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+5
71.7%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Richard McQuarley for 5 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+7
70.8%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 7 yds to the Nevad 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
71.8%
Austin Apodaca run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 9 Austin Apodaca fumbled, recovered by NMex Austin ApodacaSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
71.8%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
77.7%
Ty Gangi sacked by Maurice Daniels for a loss of 10 yards to the Nevad 15Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
78.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+10
79.1%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 10 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Alex Boy punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:5782% → 94%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.5%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Daryl Chestnut, broken up by Jaden SawyerSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
81.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 5 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+13
81.9%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Patrick Reed for 13 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
83.4%
Daryl Chestnut run for 3 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
83.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+44
93.8%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Emmanuel Harris for 44 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5710% → 18%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (Lee Crosby) to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
89.9%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+5
90.5%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
90.5%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
91.7%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Wyatt Demps) to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+43
91.9%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 43 yds to the NEWMEXICO 32 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
89.6%
James Butler run for 17 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
89.3%
PENALTY NV FOR off-setting, PENALTY NM SUB off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
89.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 19Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+19
82.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Brandon Scott for 19 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
87.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+1
87.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 11Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 6
OWN 11
0
86.3%
Austin Apodaca pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
85.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
63.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Ahki Muhammad for 57 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
69.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 11 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
69.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 7 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
71.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
69.7%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 33Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
67.8%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
65.8%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
66.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Ahki MuhammadSimilar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
68.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Jadon BoatrightSimilar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
69.6%
Alex Boy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:4972% → 94%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
71.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for no gain to the NMex 43Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
70.7%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Cole Gautsche for 6 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+8
71.2%
Austin Apodaca pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 8 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
73.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+29
73.0%
Austin Apodaca run for 29 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
74.2%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
74.2%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
93.8%
Austin Apodaca run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 22INT
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:006% → 9%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
93.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 13 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
92.7%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
92.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+12
92.3%
James Butler run for 12 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
91.8%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 9 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+9
90.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 9 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
90.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt DempsSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
91.0%
Ty Gangi pass intercepted Austin Ocasio return for 3 yds to the NMex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:1895% → 96%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
94.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
96.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
96.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 30Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
96.0%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 66 yds, downed at the Nevad 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
97.2%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 8 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 2
OWN 12
0
97.0%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Jadon BoatrightSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 12
-3
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:31
Ty Gangi pass complete to Ahki Muhammad for 57 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-22.4
TD · Q4 2:54
Austin Apodaca run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+19.6
TD · Q2 6:13
Ty Gangi pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 12 yds for a TD, (Spencer Pettit KICK)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com