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AF

Air Force 31 at Fresno State 21

FRES
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2016 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:12 · Steve Brosy punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior−27.1Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:41: Ronald Cleveland 33 Yd pass from Nate Romine (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +13.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:24: Patrick Healy 35 Yd Interception Return (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +18.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:25: KeeSean Johnson 52 Yd pass from Chason Virgil (Kody Kroening Kick) — FRES win probability +17.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:02: Arion Worthman 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +21.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:34: Arion Worthman 4 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +9.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 6AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:50FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:12AF 4th & 7 at FRES 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    72.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:21FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:22AF 4th & 2 at FRES 10, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%−0.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:10AF 4th & 7 at AF 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:50FRES 4th & 1 at AF 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−3.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−12.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:53AF 4th & 7 at AF 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:01AF 4th & 8 at FRES 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−11.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:50AF 4th & 7 at FRES 39, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−1.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:36FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:53AF 4th & 1 at FRES 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−3.9
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.4%−13.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:25AF 4th & 1 at FRES 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−9.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−31.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:49FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.4%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:52FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 41, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:55FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:19FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:41AF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:24AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:25FRES Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:02AF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:34AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5520% → 20%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
19.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
20.0%
Jamire Jordan run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
20.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
20.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FUMBLE
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:4880% → 78%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
20.2%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 13Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+11
20.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
20.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+9
21.1%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 9 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
21.1%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
21.2%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
21.4%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
21.6%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+3
21.9%
Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
21.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-1
22.0%
Parker Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 41 Parker Wilson fumbled, forced by Nela Otukolo, recovered by FrsSt James BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 0:5023% → 26%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
22.9%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
23.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+21
23.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 21 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
25.8%
KeeSean Johnson 36 Yd pass from Chason Virgil (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:3175% → 73%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
25.3%
Shayne Davern run for 26 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
25.0%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+14
25.7%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 14 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
25.6%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
25.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+5
26.1%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 2
OPP 32
-5
26.8%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
27.3%
Steve Brosy punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3928% → 29%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
27.7%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-1
28.4%
Treyvon Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-5
28.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
28.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+34
28.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 34 yds , Brett Baldwin returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 49 Brett Baldwin fumbled, recovered by AFASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3872% → 70%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
28.4%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 31 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
28.0%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
28.4%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
29.2%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
29.8%
Luke Strebel 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:3132% → 44%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
31.5%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
31.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+58
31.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 58 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
33.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+12
33.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
34.5%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
34.2%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
35.1%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the AFA 11Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
35.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Roland Ladipo) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
35.6%
Dontel James run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
35.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Roland Ladipo) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
36.2%
Dontel James run for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.3%
KeeSean Johnson 2 Yd pass from Chason Virgil (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4559% → 55%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
41.4%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
42.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-5
42.9%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
44.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 36 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for no gain to the FrsSt 24 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9INT
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:2846% → 53%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
46.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
46.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+20
46.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 20 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
48.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
48.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+16
49.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 16 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
50.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 7 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+9
50.3%
Treyvon Green pass complete to Chason Virgil for 9 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
51.3%
Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
52.1%
Dontel James run for no gain to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+5
50.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the AFA 7Similar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
49.7%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
52.8%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 8Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
53.2%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted, touchback. Brodie Hicks return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4549% → 46%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
51.5%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
52.2%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
53.0%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+1
53.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 39 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39 Tyquwan Glass fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Tyquwan GlassSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5255% → 59%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
55.1%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
55.8%
Jamire Jordan run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
55.8%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
50
+6
58.1%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-5
58.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+30
59.4%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Brodie Hicks return for 30 yds to the AFA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:5346% → 59%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
54.4%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
53.1%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
54.3%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
54.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
40.6%
Ronald Cleveland 33 Yd pass from Nate Romine (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
48.3%
Justin Rice run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 5:4452% → 53%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
48.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
47.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
47.0%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+6
47.3%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
46.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+6
47.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
47.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
45.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+10
45.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Timothy McVey for 10 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
46.1%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
46.7%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
48.8%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
47.3%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
48.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
48.6%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
50.9%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+27
47.0%
Luke Strebel 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15INT TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:2151% → 34%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
51.0%
Jamire Jordan run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+35
34.1%
Patrick Healy 35 Yd Interception Return (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:3534% → 53%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
34.0%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
33.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+14
32.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 14 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
37.0%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+3
37.1%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+52
54.8%
KeeSean Johnson 52 Yd pass from Chason Virgil (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-15
52.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1149% → 47%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
50.6%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
50.7%
Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
49.0%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+6
46.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
47.8%
Arion Worthman sacked by Jeff Camilli for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+4
51.2%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+5
51.9%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
52.7%
Steve Brosy punt for 20 yds, downed at the FrsSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5458% → 55%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
57.7%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
57.8%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
56.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
55.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:1849% → 71%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
50.9%
Tyler Williams run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
50.3%
Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
48.9%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
51.0%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+12
53.3%
Arion Worthman run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
49.9%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+5
50.1%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
50.4%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.9%
Arion Worthman 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20INT
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:0636% → 37%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
35.6%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
35.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-9
33.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
36.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
40.1%
Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+29
36.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 29 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
44.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
43.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 15
OPP 33
-1
40.6%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 16
OPP 34
0
37.1%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 82 yds · 7:0569% → 78%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
30.9%
Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
30.3%
Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
30.2%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
28.7%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
28.3%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
28.4%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+23
25.2%
Arion Worthman run for 23 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
24.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+1
20.1%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+20
21.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
20.1%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
19.5%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
21.1%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
22.3%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2334% → 25%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
33.8%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
33.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
31.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
24.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0384% → 96%
Q4 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
16.2%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.0%
Arion Worthman 4 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:385% → 3%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
5.1%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
5.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
5.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-4
4.3%
Chason Virgil sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+7
3.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
3.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 12
OWN 41
-7
3.4%
Chason Virgil sacked by Claude Alexander III for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-1
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:02
Arion Worthman 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)
-21.5
TD · Q3 8:24
Patrick Healy 35 Yd Interception Return (Luke Strebel Kick)
-18.1
TD · Q3 6:25
KeeSean Johnson 52 Yd pass from Chason Virgil (Kody Kroening Kick)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com