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FRES

Fresno State 20 at Utah State 38

USU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:30 · Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+29.0Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:28: Dontel James run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +4.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Chason Virgil pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +8.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:50: Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 5 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +8.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:25: Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 25 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +7.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:14: Damion Hobbs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +6.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:27USU 4th & 9 at FRES 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:30FRES 4th & 1 at USU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.9%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:21USU 4th & 3 at USU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:44USU 4th & 1 at FRES 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:44USU 4th & 11 at FRES 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:22FRES 4th & 18 at FRES 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:15FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:45USU 4th & 10 at FRES 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:50FRES 4th & 1 at USU 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−1.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:13FRES 4th & 9 at USU 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−7.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:07USU 4th & 5 at USU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:17FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:41FRES 4th & 7 at USU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−1.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:08FRES 4th & 20 at FRES 39, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:23USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:24FRES Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:50USU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:25USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:14USU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.5%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
82.5%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
82.5%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
82.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0882% → 83%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
82.2%
Kent Myers run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+7
82.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 7 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
82.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 8 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+20
82.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
82.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+2
82.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 2 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+21
82.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 21 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.2%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to JORDAN, Jamire, QB hurry by LARSEN, Derek, PENALTY FS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+13
82.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 13 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
82.0%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
82.1%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
82.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway, broken up by Cameron HaneySimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
82.1%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
82.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
82.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
82.6%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
82.5%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
82.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
82.1%
Aaron Dalton punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
19 plays · 86 yds · 6:0218% → 24%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
82.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
82.1%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
82.0%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
82.0%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
82.0%
Chason Virgil run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
81.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
81.8%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to JOHNSON, KeeSea, PENALTY USU face mask 15 yards to the USU41, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
81.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 4 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+11
81.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 11 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
81.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Michael Martens for 5 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
81.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway, broken up by Cameron HaneySimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+4
81.6%
Chason Virgil run for 4 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
81.8%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
81.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Kyle RidderingSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
81.3%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+7
81.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+4
80.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, delay of game (4 Yards) to the UthSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.1%
Dontel James run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
78.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 5 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
78.4%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
78.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to LaJuan HuntSimilar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
77.8%
Aaron Dalton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0823% → 22%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
76.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 5 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
76.3%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
76.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
77.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
77.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
77.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Kennedy Williams for 4 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
77.5%
Tonny Lindsey run for 4 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.0%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Tonny LindseySimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+14
77.8%
Rayshad Lewis run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
78.7%
Kent Myers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
78.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
78.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
77.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
78.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
78.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete, broken up by Nick KristoforsSimilar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
77.8%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
77.1%
Aaron Dalton punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT TD
6 plays · 3 yds · 3:0026% → 18%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
74.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
74.0%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
74.1%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-3
74.2%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 12
OWN 26
-6
75.2%
Chason Virgil sacked by Jentz Painter for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
81.8%
Blake Cusick punt blocked by Jentz Painter blocked by Jentz Painter Austin Cheney return for no gain for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
80.6%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
80.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Kyle RidderingSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
81.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 9
OWN 25
-5
81.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+3
81.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 51 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:3981% → 82%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
81.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 16 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
82.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+28
81.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 28 yds to the UTAHST 26 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
82.7%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
82.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Tank KellySimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
82.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Tonny Lindsey, broken up by Nela OtukoloSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
82.1%
Brock Warren 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
18 plays · 77 yds · 3:1518% → 28%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
82.5%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
82.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 2 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+5
82.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
81.9%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
82.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dontel James for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+22
82.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 22 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
80.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 9 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+7
79.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
79.7%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
80.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
81.0%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
80.3%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to JORDAN, Jamire (CENTERS, Devin), PENALTY USU pass interference 10 yards to the USU2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.9%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the UthSt 1Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0676% → 76%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
75.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 13 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
75.6%
Kent Myers run for 7 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1075% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
75.1%
Kent Myers run for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
76.4%
Kent Myers run for 12 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
77.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
77.0%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion TarverSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+15
76.0%
Kent Myers run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
77.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+28
77.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 28 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 5 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15FG
20 plays · 65 yds · 7:3716% → 21%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.2%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
84.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
83.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
82.8%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-5
83.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+12
84.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
82.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 3 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+11
82.5%
Chason Virgil run for 11 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
81.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Justin Allen for 8 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+4
81.4%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
81.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
81.7%
Dontel James run for no gain to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
82.7%
Chason Virgil run for 9 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+3
83.2%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
81.4%
Dontel James run for no gain to the UthSt 11Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
81.4%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
82.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
79.1%
Kody Kroening 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.0%
Kent Myers run for 10 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
83.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the UthSt 35Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 5 yds to the UthSt 40 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
82.1%
Aaron Dalton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
79.9%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
79.1%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
81.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:1787% → 95%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
87.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 6 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+11
87.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 11 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
87.5%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
88.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+8
87.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
94.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 25 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:388% → 10%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
92.3%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
92.1%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+6
92.1%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to HARDAWAY, Delvo (BAILEY, Wesley), PENALTY USU pass interference 6 yards to the FS34, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
91.8%
Dontel James run for 20 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
91.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 11 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
90.7%
Trent Soechting run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
90.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Wesley BaileySimilar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
91.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway, broken up by Wesley BaileySimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
90.4%
Kody Kroening 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2791% → 98%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
90.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 8 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
91.2%
Alex Byers run for 10 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion TarverSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+19
91.6%
Tonny Lindsey run for 4 yds to the UTAHST 49 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
91.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
92.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+5
92.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.4%
Damion Hobbs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
97.4%
VIRGIL, Chason pass complete to JOHNSON, KeeSea for 6 yards to the FS30 (HANEY, Cameron), PENALTY FS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-5
97.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 20
OWN 14
0
97.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+12
97.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+12
97.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 12 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
97.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 11 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
97.1%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to HARDAWAY, Delvo, PENALTY FS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
97.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+4
97.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Trent Soechting for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-15
97.3%
VIRGIL, Chason pass complete to JOHNSON, KeeSea for 6 yards to the USU46 (CENTERS, Devin;GRAY, Daniel), PENALTY FS illegal block 15 yards to the FS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 26
OWN 33
+6
97.5%
Chason Virgil run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 20
OWN 39
0
97.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson FRESNO ST Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
98.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+6
98.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
98.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
98.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+1
98.9%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:24
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-8
TD · Q3 11:50
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 5 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
+8
TD · Q4 14:25
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 25 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com