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CSU

Colorado State 42 at UNLV 23

UNLV
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:25 · Evan Pantels punt for 47 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 8 yds to the ColSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Home team on offense−6.4Score differential−3.5Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Pregame prior+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:28: Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:07: Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:02: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 34 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:07: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:09: David Greene run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +6.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 5:14UNLV 4th & 1 at CSU 24, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−2.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00CSU 4th & 11 at UNLV 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:25UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:46CSU 4th & 2 at UNLV 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−1.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:02UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 15, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:15UNLV 4th & 6 at CSU 10, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:09CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 27, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:34UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 46, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:14CSU 4th & 16 at UNLV 40, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:53UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 17, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:04CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 45, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:29CSU 4th & 5 at UNLV 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:11CSU 4th & 1 at UNLV 36, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:03CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:07CSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:02CSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:07CSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:36UNLV Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:09UNLV Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:57CSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:44UNLV Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5747% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+13
53.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 13 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
53.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 18 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
53.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
53.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 7 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
53.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 5 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
53.1%
Detrich Clark run for 1 yd to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
53.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Torry McTyerSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+10
53.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 10 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
53.1%
Detrich Clark run for no gain to the UNLV 13Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
53.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 5 yds to the UNLV 8Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
51.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Danny Nwosu for 8 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4952% → 52%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.7%
Charles Williams run for 9 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
52.2%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
51.9%
Dalton Sneed run for 14 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
52.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+14
52.5%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Jericho Flowers for 14 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
52.8%
Dalton Sneed run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
52.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 7 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
52.5%
David Greene run for no gain to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+41
51.5%
Evan Pantels 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:4650% → 57%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
50.4%
Anthony Hawkins run for 9 yds to the ColSt 33 Anthony Hawkins fumbled, forced by Troy Hawthorne,Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-5
50.0%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (Nolan Peralta) to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
50.2%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+37
50.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 37 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
49.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Anthony Hawkins for 13 yds to the UNLV 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
49.3%
Anthony Hawkins run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+10
49.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 10 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
49.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
49.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
42.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
44.1%
SNEED, Dalton pass complete to HOLT, Tim for 14 yards to the LV39 (JOHNSON, Shun), PENALTY LV ineligible downfield on pass (STEVENSON, M.) 5 yards to the LV20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
44.0%
Dalton Sneed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
44.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+7
43.8%
Dalton Sneed pass intercepted Jake Schlager return for 7 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:1858% → 58%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
41.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-2
41.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-1
41.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 37
0
42.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
41.7%
Dalton Sneed run for 11 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
41.8%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 16
-5
41.9%
UNLV Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 11Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 12
OWN 11
0
41.8%
Dalton Sneed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+13
41.6%
Dalton Sneed run for 13 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
42.0%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Lexington ThomasSimilar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
41.9%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
41.6%
Dalton Sneed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 12
OWN 22
+8
41.6%
Evan Pantels punt for 47 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 8 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:2563% → 78%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
37.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
37.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
50
0
37.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
50
0
37.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Nolan PeraltaSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
50
+12
37.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 12 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
37.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
37.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-1
37.4%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+15
34.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 15 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
32.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+5
32.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
24.5%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete, broken up by Kiel RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
24.4%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
24.3%
Dalton Sneed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 8
OWN 15
-2
24.3%
Evan Pantels punt for 54 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 2:0877% → 84%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
23.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 24 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
22.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+7
22.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Danny Nwosu for 7 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+4
22.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
16.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 34 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
14.2%
Dalton Sneed run for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 11 Dalton Sneed fumbled, recovered by ColSt Justin SweetSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:4586% → 95%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
14.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the UNLV 4Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
13.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
5.2%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:248% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
7.5%
Dalton Sneed run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+24
7.2%
Dalton Sneed run for 24 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
7.8%
Jericho Flowers run for 15 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
8.4%
SNEED, Dalton pass complete to KANTEMAN, T. for 19 yards to the CS21 (JOHNSON, Shun), PENALTY LV ineligible downfield on pass (SAXELID, Kyle) 5 yards to the CS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+8
8.3%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 8 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+37
10.5%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 37 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 25Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
8.1%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
8.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 8 yds Michael Gallup fumbled, forced by Darius Mouton, recovered by UNLV Gabe McCoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15FG
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3910% → 4%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
10.2%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 19 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
10.2%
Dalton Sneed run for 2 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
10.1%
Dalton Sneed run for 2 yds to the ColSt 10Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
9.3%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Tim HoltSimilar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
4.0%
Evan Pantels 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
4.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
4.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
4.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Danny Nwosu, broken up by Kenny KeysSimilar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+5
4.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 61 yds , Mekhi Stevenson returns for 5 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
2.9%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+8
2.9%
Charles Williams run for 8 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
2.9%
Dalton Sneed run for 16 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
3.0%
Dalton Sneed run for 1 yd to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
3.0%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Tim HoltSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
3.0%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Jericho FlowersSimilar
Q3 8:34
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
2.9%
Evan Pantels punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
2.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
2.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 29Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+14
2.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 14 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
2.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 12 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
2.3%
Detrich Clark run for 11 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
2.3%
CLARK, Detrich rush for 3 yards to the LV31 (LOTULELEI, Tau), PENALTY CS holding (FACKRELL, Dalto) 10 yards to the LV44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 20
OPP 44
-2
2.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 46Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 22
OPP 46
+12
2.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 12 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-1
2.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 11
OPP 35
-5
2.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 40Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
2.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Stevenson at the UNLV 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 3:271% → 8%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
1.1%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
1.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+21
1.1%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Tim Holt for 21 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.1%
Dalton Sneed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
1.0%
Dalton Sneed run for 13 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
1.1%
Jericho Flowers run for 6 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+8
1.2%
Dalton Sneed run for 8 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
1.2%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
1.2%
Dalton Sneed run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+35
1.1%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 35 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
1.2%
David Greene run for 2 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.8%
David Greene run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
0.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 36 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
0.7%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Jericho FlowersSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
0.7%
Dalton Sneed run for 3 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
0.7%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Jericho Flowers, broken up by Justin SweetSimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
0.7%
Evan Pantels punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:3599% → 100%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
0.7%
Detrich Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+9
0.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 9 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
0.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
0.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
0.7%
Detrich Clark run for 13 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
0.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
0.6%
Faton Bauta run for no gain to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Robert Ruiz, broken up by Dalton BakerSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:340% → 3%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.3%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+14
0.3%
Charles Williams run for 14 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
2.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 51 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24END OF GAME
12 plays · 44 yds · 2:3398% → 99%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
1.6%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
1.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
1.6%
Faton Bauta run for 3 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
0.7%
Faton Bauta run for 3 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
0.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+6
0.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
0.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
0.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
0.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
0.6%
Bryce Peters run for 8 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:07
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q2 0:07
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q1 1:28
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com