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UNM

New Mexico 45 at Air Force 40

AF
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Cotton Bowl
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:45 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:49: Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +11.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:10: Lamar Jordan pass complete to Q' Drennan for 45 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +10.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:27: Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +19.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:33: Nate Romine pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 20 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +14.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:22: Timothy McVey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — AF win probability +20.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:33AF 4th & 6 at UNM 31, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:51UNM 4th & 10 at AF 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:27AF 4th & 1 at AF 21, down 4
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:00AF 4th & 1 at UNM 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−8.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 15 at AF 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 0:32UNM 4th & 12 at AF 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 27 at AF 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:00UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:05AF 4th & 11 at AF 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:15UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−4.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:22UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−2.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:45AF 4th & 11 at AF 36, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:00UNM 4th & 7 at AF 33, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.3
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:54AF 4th & 10 at AF 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.0%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:57UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:21UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:56AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:21UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:30AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:49UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:00AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:10UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:27UNM Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:33AF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:22AF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.1 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0318% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
82.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 33 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+41
82.3%
Teriyon Gipson run for 41 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1982% → 81%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
81.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+21
81.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 21 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
81.9%
Timothy McVey run for 14 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
81.9%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the NMex 35Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
81.9%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+1
81.9%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
80.7%
Luke Strebel 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1219% → 21%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
80.6%
Tyrone Owens run for 12 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
80.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+60
78.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 60 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2579% → 80%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
79.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 35 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
79.6%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-7
79.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 33 AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the NMex 43Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+43
79.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 43 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
79.3%
Lamar Jordan run for 18 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
79.0%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
79.0%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
79.2%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Richard McQuarleySimilar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
79.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
78.6%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 11Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+7
78.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+3
78.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+4
78.3%
Steve Brosy punt for 54 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 6:4222% → 33%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
78.1%
Teriyon Gipson run for 15 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
77.7%
JORDAN, Lamar pass incomplete to REED, Patrick, PENALTY AF pass interference (GRIFFIN, Marqui) 15 yards to the AF41, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
77.5%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
77.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
77.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
77.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
77.5%
Daryl Chestnut run for 1 yd to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
77.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
77.3%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+14
74.6%
Dameon Gamblin run for 14 yds to the AFA 2 Dameon Gamblin fumbled, forced by Roland Ladipo, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.2%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5169% → 75%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
69.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
69.3%
Nate Romine run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
70.0%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
70.0%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+53
74.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 53 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:3428% → 41%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
71.7%
Tyrone Owens run for 3 yds to the NMex 43Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+32
71.7%
Lamar Jordan run for 32 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
70.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
70.8%
Daryl Chestnut run for 6 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
71.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 3 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
70.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
59.5%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4961% → 68%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
60.8%
Nate Romine run for 19 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
61.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 14 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
62.6%
Nate Romine pass complete to Shayne Davern for 25 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
63.6%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
63.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
59.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMex 2Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.3%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the NMex 1Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.7%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 0:4239% → 50%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
60.9%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+45
50.0%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Q' Drennan for 45 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 1:1052% → 58%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.2%
Timothy McVey run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
53.3%
Timothy McVey run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
52.7%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
53.6%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+26
53.3%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 26 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
54.6%
Timothy McVey run for 15 yds to the NMex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
58.3%
Luke Strebel 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+18
55.6%
Nate Romine pass complete to Shayne Davern for 18 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
57.6%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
58.0%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-8
56.8%
Nate Romine sacked by Dakota Cox for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
53.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:5049% → 76%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
50.7%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
49.3%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
50.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
49.5%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
48.3%
Tyrone Owens run for no gain to the NMex 38Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+58
45.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 58 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
43.2%
Richard McQuarley run for 2 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
43.2%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5433% → 48%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.6%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Shayne DavernSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+44
32.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 44 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
37.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 18 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
38.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMex 20 Ronald Cleveland fumbled, recovered by AFA Ronald Cleveland , return for no gain to the NMex 20Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 17
OPP 20
0
37.0%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Nias MartinSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 17
OPP 20
+20
47.6%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 20 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16FG
13 plays · 23 yds · 4:5260% → 73%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
40.4%
Teriyon Gipson run for 1 yd to the NMex 46Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
34.6%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+8
34.9%
Teriyon Gipson run for 8 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
33.4%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
33.6%
Richard McQuarley run for 4 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-5
33.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Tyrone Owens) to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+13
34.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Q' Drennan for 13 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
32.4%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+2
33.0%
Teriyon Gipson run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
33.6%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Daryl ChestnutSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+49
27.4%
Jason Sanders 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:3231% → 28%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.8%
Ronald Cleveland run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
31.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 16 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
31.9%
ROMINE, Nate pass incomplete to ROBINETTE, Jale, PENALTY NM pass interference (MARTIN, Nias) 15 yards to the NM40, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
34.0%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 45 Jacobi Owens fumbled, recovered by AFA Jacobi Owens , return for no gain to the NMex 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-7
32.3%
Nate Romine sacked by Nik D'Avanzo for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 48
-5
29.5%
Nate Romine sacked by Donnie White for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 27
OWN 43
0
28.4%
Steve Brosy punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 75%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
28.1%
Daryl Chestnut run for 6 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-2
24.1%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 10Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+3
25.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
25.3%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
24.6%
Tyler Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
24.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 6
50
-5
24.5%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
21.6%
Steve Brosy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0091% → 88%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
9.1%
Daryl Chestnut run for no gain to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
9.3%
Richard McQuarley run for no gain to the NMex 13Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
9.5%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Patrick Reed, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 10
OWN 13
-5
9.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Diquon Woodhouse) to the NMex 8Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
11.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 46 yds, downed at the AFA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:1318% → 42%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
17.9%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+20
17.3%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 20 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
21.4%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 12 yds to the NMex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
21.9%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
21.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Shayne Davern for 14 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
21.9%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the NMex 6Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
41.9%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.8%
Daryl Chestnut run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.3%
Austin Apodaca run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
16.3%
Austin Apodaca pass incomplete to Q' Drennan, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
17.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 42 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 7 yds to the AFA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0029% → 26%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
29.1%
Nate Romine run for 9 yds to the AFA 46 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (D.J. Johnson) to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 11
OWN 36
0
28.8%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
28.7%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
26.5%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
25.6%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:3491% → 93%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
9.0%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-1
8.7%
Austin Apodaca run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+1
8.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
7.0%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
18.8%
ROMINE, Nate pass complete to ROBINETTE, Jale for 20 yards to the AF32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY AF holding (BARNHORST, Jake) 6 yards to the AF6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+13
17.8%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 13 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+21
18.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Timothy McVey for 21 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.3%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
19.9%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan Reffitt, broken up by Lee CrosbySimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
19.0%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
17.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland, broken up by Dakota CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-2
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:22
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+20
TD · Q3 7:27
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
-19.1
TD · Q3 5:33
Nate Romine pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 20 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com