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FRES

Fresno State 22 at Nevada 27

NEV
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+15.2Home team on offense+11.5Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Score differential+4.2Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:22: Tyler Stewart run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +5.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:26: Chason Virgil pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +6.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:37: Kody Kroening 35 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +7.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:56: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Brent Zuzo PAT MISSED) — NEV win probability +7.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:08: Dontel James run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FRES win probability +13.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:13FRES 4th & 9 at NEV 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:08NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00FRES 4th & 8 at NEV 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:16NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 6, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.8%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:55NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%−1.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:39FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 13 at NEV 40, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:49NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 22, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:39FRES 4th & 7 at midfield, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:26FRES 4th & 1 at NEV 1, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:37FRES 4th & 3 at NEV 18, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−12.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:37NEV 4th & 1 at FRES 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−3.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−15.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:02NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 29, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:37FRES 4th & 4 at NEV 4, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−20.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−25.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:48NEV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:22NEV Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:12NEV Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:26FRES Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:56NEV Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:08FRES Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.0%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.1%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
79.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
79.1%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
79.1%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+2
79.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 2 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
79.1%
Alex Boy punt for 40 yds, downed at the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1122% → 23%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+34
78.4%
Dontel James run for 34 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
78.2%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+11
78.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 11 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
78.2%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+2
78.1%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
78.1%
Chason Virgil run for 1 yd to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
78.1%
Dontel James run for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
78.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Jaden SawyerSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
77.2%
Kody Kroening 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 4:2077% → 78%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
76.9%
James Butler run for 9 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+5
77.1%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
77.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
76.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
76.7%
STEWART, Tyler sacked for loss of 10 yards to the NEV22 (BAILEY,James), PENALTY FS personal foul (BAILEY,James) 15 yards to the NEV47, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
77.4%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 7
50
+2
77.4%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-15
77.4%
STEWART, Tyler rush for 6 yards to the FS42, out-of-bounds (BELONY, Patrick), PENALTY NEV clipping (EDWARDS, Nathan) 15 yards to the NEV37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+19
76.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 19 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
77.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
77.5%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+36
78.1%
Andrew Celis pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 36 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:4823% → 25%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
77.0%
Justin Rice run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
76.6%
Justin Rice run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
76.6%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
76.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 12 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
76.4%
Dontel James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+9
76.6%
Dontel James run for 9 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+14
76.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Treyvon Green for 14 yds to the Nevad 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
75.4%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to PECK, Aaron, PENALTY NEV pass interference (JOHNSON, K.) 15 yards to the NEV3, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.4%
Justin Rice run for no gain to the Nevad 3Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
75.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 8Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
75.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q1 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.0%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
75.1%
Kody Kroening 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5MISSED FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:4476% → 75%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
76.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 9 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
76.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
76.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 7 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+7
76.9%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
76.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
77.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
76.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
77.2%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Sean Krepsz) to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 31
0
76.9%
James Butler run for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+16
76.5%
James Butler run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
77.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
77.2%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
76.7%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+24
75.1%
Brent Zuzo 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
73.8%
Dontel James run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
73.3%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
73.4%
Zach Kline run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 44 Zach Kline fumbled, forced by Malik Reed, recovered by Nevad Alex BertrandoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:3377% → 82%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
76.6%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
76.5%
Andrew Celis pass incomplete to Tyler StewartSimilar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
76.2%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
75.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
76.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
76.9%
Tyler Stewart run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
76.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 2 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+5
76.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Ahki Muhammad for 5 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+12
76.3%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY FS pass interference (ELLIS, Jamal) 12 yards to the FS2, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
76.9%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.0%
Tyler Stewart run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:3119% → 20%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
80.6%
KLINE, Zach pass complete to JORDAN, Jamire for 75 yards to the NEV0, clock 04:10, PENALTY FS holding (PECK, Aaron) 10 yards to the FS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
80.7%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
80.8%
Zach Kline run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
81.2%
Zach Kline run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
79.9%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
79.2%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
79.9%
Zach Kline run for no gain to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
80.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 1:2181% → 88%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
80.8%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Nevad 23Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
80.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico Richardson, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+17
80.1%
James Butler run for 17 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+45
82.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 45 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
82.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+5
83.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 5 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
81.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
86.5%
Dontel James run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line Dontel James fumbled, forced by Dameon Baber, recovered by Nevad Asauni Rufus , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -15 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
50
-15
89.1%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Nick Kristofors for a loss of 15 yards to the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.1%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
87.2%
Dontel James run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
86.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
86.0%
Chason Virgil run for 7 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.8%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
86.1%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
85.6%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
85.8%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
84.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-6
85.9%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 40 Chason Virgil fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Chason VirgilSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
87.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
89.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 10 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
89.4%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
89.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Ahki Muhammad, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
88.9%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
88.4%
Alex Boy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
17 plays · 65 yds · 8:1312% → 16%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
87.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 6 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
87.5%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
87.4%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
87.3%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 7
50
0
87.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Dontel JamesSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 7
50
+10
88.2%
KeeSean Johnson run for 10 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
87.0%
Chason Virgil sacked by Malik Reed for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+15
87.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-15
86.0%
JAMES, Dontel rush for 5 yards to the NEV24 (WILSON, Travis), PENALTY FS illegal block (VAZQUEZ, Jacob) 15 yards to the NEV44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 25
OPP 44
+4
87.5%
Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 21
OPP 40
+6
87.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 6 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+33
91.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 33 yds to the Nevad 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
89.2%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 2Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.1%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.9%
Dontel James run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jared Rice for 1 yd for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.9%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
88.4%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the Nevad 43 James Butler fumbled, forced by Stratton Brown, recovered by FrsSt Nick KristoforsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16FG
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:1317% → 24%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
82.9%
Treyvon Green run for 18 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
81.5%
Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+3
81.5%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
83.0%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the Nevad 18Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
75.8%
Kody Kroening 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:4177% → 94%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.4%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
78.6%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
78.9%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
79.8%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
80.3%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
80.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+6
80.2%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
81.7%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
81.9%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
80.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
79.1%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
81.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
86.4%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
94.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Brent Zuzo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:486% → 21%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Jordan SilvaSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
94.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
50
+15
93.1%
Chason Virgil run for 15 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
92.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Treyvon Green for 9 yds to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
92.1%
Treyvon Green run for no gain to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
92.9%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
92.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+19
92.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 19 yds to the Nevad 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.9%
Dontel James run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
87.3%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
87.5%
James Butler run for 4 yds to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
86.9%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 29Similar
Q4 5:02
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
86.2%
Alex Boy punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:1816% → 14%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
84.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
82.0%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
81.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
81.5%
Chason Virgil run for 1 yd to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+23
81.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 23 yds to the Nevad 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
79.3%
Dontel James run for 10 yds to the Nevad 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Elijah MitchellSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dontel James for no gain to the Nevad 4Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
85.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
94.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:08
Dontel James run for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-13.6
TD · Q4 7:56
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds for a TD FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Brent Zuzo PAT MISSED)
+7.7
FG · Q4 13:37
Kody Kroening 35 yd FG GOOD
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com