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USU

Utah State 24 at Colorado State 31

CSU
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:44 · TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:25: Kent Myers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +3.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:15: Kent Myers run for 14 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +6.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:22: Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 60 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +10.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:30: Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +21.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:33: Izzy Matthews run for 10 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +26.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:27CSU 4th & 2 at USU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:16USU 4th & 7 at USU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CSU 4th & 1 at USU 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−1.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:10CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 39, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:10CSU 4th & 14 at CSU 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:42USU 4th & 2 at USU 36, up 11
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:18CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 31, down 11
    Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:09USU 4th & 11 at CSU 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:06CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.1%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00USU 4th & 9 at CSU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    77.1%−1.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:13CSU 4th & 3 at USU 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    31.4%−2.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:18USU 4th & 28 at USU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:13CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:54USU 4th & 9 at USU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00USU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:33USU 4th & 9 at CSU 36, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:55CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:15USU 4th & 10 at CSU 27, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.2 ptsWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%−3.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−10.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:15CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:28USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:22CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:25USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:15USU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:22CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:30CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:33CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:3334% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
34.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 17 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
34.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 20 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
34.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 11 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
34.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 7 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+4
34.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
34.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 8 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 3
0
34.4%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the UthSt 3Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
34.4%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+21
35.8%
Wyatt Bryan 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5964% → 65%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Kennedy Williams for 8 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+26
35.6%
Tonny Lindsey run for 26 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.5%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
35.1%
Gerold Bright run for 41 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0635% → 39%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
35.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
35.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 19 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
35.7%
UTAH ST Penalty, delay of game (Travis Seefeldt) to the UthSt 46Similar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+7
35.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
35.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+12
35.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 12 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
35.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
38.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 19 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
37.9%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
38.0%
Kennedy Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
38.1%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
38.3%
Aaron Dalton punt for 54 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for no gain to the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
38.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
38.0%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+8
37.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 8 yds to the ColSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
38.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 24Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
38.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
37.9%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Robert Ruiz, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
37.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:2960% → 64%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
39.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+40
39.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 25 yds to the COLOST 44 for a 1ST down COLORADO ST Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Davis) to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
38.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+9
38.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
38.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
38.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+5
40.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 5 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
36.3%
Kent Myers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:2538% → 39%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 8 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
38.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (Leki Uasike) to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
39.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
39.8%
Faton Bauta run for 5 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
39.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
39.1%
Izzy Matthews run for no gain to the UthSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:1963% → 70%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.2%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
37.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+12
38.6%
Kent Myers run for 12 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+3
37.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
50
+7
36.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
36.8%
Rayshad Lewis run for 1 yd to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+13
37.0%
Kent Myers run for 13 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
36.6%
MYERS, Kent pass incomplete to TARVER, R. (VADEN, Jordon), PENALTY CSU pass interference (VADEN, Jordon) 15 yards to the CSU14, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
30.2%
Kent Myers run for 14 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 18 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
31.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Robert Ruiz, broken up by Jontrell RocquemoreSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
31.5%
Detrich Clark run for 12 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
31.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-11
32.0%
Collin Hill sacked by Brock Carmen for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 26Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+13
30.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 13 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+6
31.4%
Hayden Hunt run for 6 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
32.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+6
31.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
32.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
31.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Izzy MatthewsSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 9
OWN 46
-5
31.4%
HUNT, Hayden punt 48 yards to the USU6, fair catch by RODRIGUEZ, A., PENALTY CSU illegal formation 5 yards to the CSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+1
30.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 49 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 1 yd to the UthSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
30.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for 17 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
30.0%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
30.2%
Kent Myers run for 8 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
29.8%
Kent Myers run for no gain to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
30.3%
Aaron Dalton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
29.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 22Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
29.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Detrich Clark, broken up by Ricky Ali'ifuaSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+9
28.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 9 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
28.8%
Hayden Hunt punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 2:4571% → 78%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
29.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 9 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+11
28.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 11 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
28.0%
Kent Myers run for 5 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+36
28.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 36 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
27.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 1
OPP 8
-10
27.8%
LINDSEY, Tonny rush for 2 yards to the CSU6 (COLORITO, Evan), PENALTY USU holding (SIMONICH, Jake) 10 yards to the CSU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 11
OPP 18
-9
25.3%
Kent Myers sacked by Darnell Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 20
OPP 27
+9
25.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 9 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
21.8%
Brock Warren 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0023% → 25%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
22.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 18 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
24.0%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
23.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 8 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
24.7%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
24.7%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
19.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ethan Cortazzo for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-7
19.6%
Kent Myers sacked by Jakob Buys and Toby McBride for a loss of 7 yards to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
21.0%
Kent Myers run for 18 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Jake SchlagerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
19.8%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the ColSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
21.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
20.0%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion Tarver, broken up by Jordon VadenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2722% → 33%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
21.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 14 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
21.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
22.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+60
32.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 60 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
29.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 22 yds to the UthSt 47 Tonny Lindsey fumbled, forced by Tyree Simmons, recovered by ColSt Kevin DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
34.7%
Collin Hill run for 5 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-1
34.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
34.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 3 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
33.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
30.0%
Rayshad Lewis run for 15 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
29.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 5 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
27.7%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 41Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+16
28.0%
Kent Myers run for 16 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
27.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
27.2%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-14
28.0%
Kent Myers sacked by Bryan Ohene-Gyeni for a loss of 14 yards to the UthSt 39 Kent Myers fumbled, recovered by UthSt Kent Myers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 28
OWN 39
0
31.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 29%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
33.4%
Detrich Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
32.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Robert RuizSimilar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+1
30.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
29.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
28.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 11Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
28.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Tyree SimmonsSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
29.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
30.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:2834% → 58%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
34.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+16
33.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 16 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
36.1%
MATTHEWS, Izzy rush for 6 yards to the USU24 (TOGIAI, Ian), PENALTY CSU holding (BENNETT, Jake) 10 yards to the USU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 20
OPP 40
0
32.6%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+19
32.2%
Collin Hill run for 19 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
34.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
36.1%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 14
OPP 24
0
34.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Daniel GraySimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+22
31.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 22 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
36.1%
DAWKINS, Dalyn rush for loss of 1 yard to the USU3 (DAVIS, Jalen;TE'I, Justus), PENALTY USU 12 men on the field 1 yards to the USU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:3053% → 54%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 2 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
47.1%
Tonny Lindsey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
47.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 11 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
44.0%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
45.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
50
0
43.5%
Damion Hobbs pass complete to Justen Hervey for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
50
0
45.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:2852% → 86%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
52.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+9
52.2%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+56
53.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 56 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
59.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, offside defense (Mohelika Uasike) to the UthSt 10Similar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 5
OPP 10
+10
85.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 10 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.7%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
77.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 13 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
75.9%
MYERS, Kent pass incomplete to TARVER, R., PENALTY CSU pass interference (SIMMONS, Tyree) 15 yards to the CSU46, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
73.5%
MYERS, Kent pass incomplete to TARVER, R., PENALTY CSU pass interference (SIMMONS, Tyree) 9 yards to the CSU37, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
73.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 4 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-3
71.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Kennedy Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
74.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
77.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
84.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
84.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
84.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Jalen DavisSimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+62
82.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the COLOST 24 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Justus Te'i) to the UthSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 59 yds · 0:0016% → 18%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+40
83.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 40 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
78.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 14
50
+4
82.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 4 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+19
81.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 19 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
76.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion Tarver, broken up by Tyree SimmonsSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
77.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
79.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Johnny SchuppSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 10
OPP 27
0
82.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad Lewis, broken up by Jamal HicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4993% → 93%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
92.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
92.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
94.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Danny NwosuSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
93.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 39 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for no gain to the UthSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0010% → 13%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
90.0%
Kent Myers sacked by Arjay Jean for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 18 Kent Myers fumbled, recovered by UthSt Wyatt Houston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 19
OWN 18
+27
90.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 27 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 5
50
0
87.6%
Kent Myers pass intercepted Kevin Davis return for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
88.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 4 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
87.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 30END OF GAME
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0396% → 96%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 32Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-5
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:33
Izzy Matthews run for 10 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+26.2
TD · Q3 0:30
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+21.8
TD · Q3 12:22
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 60 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com