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BOIS

Boise State 49 at New Mexico 21

UNM
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2016 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:44 · Sam Gentry punt for 33 yds, downed at the BoiSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense−14.6Pregame prior−28.8Score differential−7.5Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:01: Tyrone Owens run for 62 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — UNM win probability +3.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:01: Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:44: Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 54 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:17: Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +2.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:10: Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 35 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:07UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:57UNM 4th & 18 at BOIS 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:44UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:58UNM 4th & 26 at UNM 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:56UNM 4th & 19 at UNM 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:02UNM 4th & 11 at BOIS 34, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:58BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 36, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UNM 4th & 1 at BOIS 47, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00UNM 4th & 1 at BOIS 31, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:55UNM 4th & 3 at BOIS 6, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:55BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 34, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 6:49BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:01UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:37BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:01BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:44BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:17BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:10BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:08BOIS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:55UNM Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:20UNM Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
13.7%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
13.7%
Sean Wale punt for 42 yds , Chris Davis Jr. returns for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
14.1%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMex 22Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+2
14.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 2 yds to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+56
14.1%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 56 yds , Akilian Butler returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 5:1185% → 85%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
15.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+18
15.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 3 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Isaiah Brown) to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
15.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+14
15.0%
RYPIEN, Brett pass complete to McNICHOLS, J. for loss of 1 yard to the BSU33 (HENRY, Daniel), PENALTY NM face mask (HENRY, Daniel) 14 yards to the BSU48, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
14.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
15.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 13 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
14.9%
RYPIEN, Brett rush for 6 yards to the NM33 (CROSBY, Lee), PENALTY BSU holding (YAKOO, Mario) 10 yards to the NM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+7
15.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+21
15.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 21 yds to the NMex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
14.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the NMex 20Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
14.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick Wilson, broken up by Daniel HenrySimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-5
14.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+19
15.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 19 yds to the NMex 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
14.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 7Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
15.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 7 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4816% → 19%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
15.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Charlie Grammel) to the NMex 20Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
15.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
15.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 6 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
15.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
18.9%
Tyrone Owens run for 62 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2482% → 84%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 8 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
18.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
18.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
18.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+53
16.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 53 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
16.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 13 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
17.0%
Daryl Chestnut run for 2 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
17.0%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NMex 41 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal forward pass (Lamar Jordan) to the NMex 36Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+3
16.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Dameon Gamblin for 3 yds to the NMex 39Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 6
OWN 39
-5
16.7%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Bijon Parker) to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
16.5%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:3584% → 87%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
16.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
16.4%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+10
16.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 10 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
16.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+9
16.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 9 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
16.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 11 yds to the NMex 18 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, tripping (Lee Crosby) to the NMex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
16.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
13.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
14.5%
Tyrone Owens run for 9 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+37
14.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 37 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
15.3%
Richard McQuarley run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-7
15.3%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 48 Lamar Jordan fumbled,Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 18
OPP 48
0
14.8%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Cole GautscheSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
14.7%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 42 yds, downed at the BoiSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
5 plays · 94 yds · 1:0986% → 91%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
13.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Garrett Hughes) to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 5
OWN 11
0
13.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 5
OWN 11
0
13.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+35
14.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 35 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
8.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 54 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
9.8%
Lamar Jordan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
9.7%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
9.7%
Sam Gentry punt for 33 yds, downed at the BoiSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:2592% → 93%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
8.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 7 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-6
8.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Brett RypienSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+32
8.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 32 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
8.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+15
8.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 15 yds to the NMex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
8.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 8Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
7.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:197% → 11%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.5%
Daryl Chestnut run for 3 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
6.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 24 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
7.1%
Diquon Woodhouse run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+6
7.1%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
7.3%
Diquon Woodhouse run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-5
7.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Dameon Gamblin) to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 17
OPP 44
0
6.9%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 17
OPP 44
-9
6.8%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Sam McCaskill for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 47Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 26
OWN 47
0
11.3%
Sam Gentry punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Cedrick Wilson at the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4592% → 97%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
7.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+10
8.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 10 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
7.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 18 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
7.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Cedrick WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
7.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+35
3.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 35 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:524% → 3%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.3%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Chris Davis Jr.Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.2%
Lamar Jordan run for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
4.2%
Daryl Chestnut run for 13 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
2.5%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Tyrone OwensSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
2.3%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Matt Quarells for 13 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.6%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Dameon GamblinSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
2.5%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Raymond Ford return for no gain to the BoiSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
2.9%
Daryl Chestnut run for no gain to the NMex 16Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
2.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
3.0%
Tyrone Owens run for 5 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
2.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 11 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
3.0%
Daryl Chestnut run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+1
2.9%
Daryl Chestnut run for 1 yd to the NMex 41Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-9
2.9%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 9 yards to the NMex 32Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 19
OWN 32
+17
2.8%
Sam Gentry punt for 43 yds , Cedrick Wilson returns for 17 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:0298% → 99%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
1.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+10
1.6%
RYPIEN, Brett pass incomplete to SPERBECK, T., PENALTY NM pass interference (MACKEY, Marquez) 10 yards to the NM45, 1ST DOWN BSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
1.6%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Nik D'Avanzo) to the NMex 40Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+1
1.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the NMex 39Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
1.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
1.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+12
1.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 12 yds to the NMex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
1.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 11 yds to the NMex 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
1.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the NMex 3Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
0.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+7
0.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 7 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
0.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 3 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+11
0.8%
Lamar Jordan run for 11 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
0.9%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
0.8%
Richard McQuarley run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
0.9%
Lamar Jordan run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
0.9%
Daryl Chestnut run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-5
0.9%
Dameon Gamblin run for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-1
0.9%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Darren Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
0.8%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Matt QuarellsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
0.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Thomas Stuart pass incomplete to Jake Roh, broken up by Jake RothschillerSimilar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Thomas Stuart pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Sean Wale punt for 46 yds, downed at the NMex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 7:060% → 0%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+26
0.4%
Lamar Jordan run for 26 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.4%
JaJuan Lawson pass incomplete to Emmanuel HarrisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
0.3%
JaJuan Lawson run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
0.4%
JaJuan Lawson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+7
0.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
0.4%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+2
0.4%
Diquon Woodhouse run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+9
0.4%
JaJuan Lawson run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+3
0.4%
Diquon Woodhouse run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
0.4%
JaJuan Lawson run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
0.4%
Richard McQuarley run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
0.4%
JaJuan Lawson run for no gain to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+4
0.4%
JaJuan Lawson run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 6Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
0.2%
JaJuan Lawson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
0.2%
Ryan Wolpin run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.3%
Sean Wale punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Davis Jr. at the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:230% → 0%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.1%
JaJuan Lawson run for no gain to the NMex 26Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
0.1%
Dameon Gamblin run for 6 yds to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+4
0.1%
JaJuan Lawson run for 4 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
0.1%
Tyrone Owens run for 4 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
0.1%
JaJuan Lawson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 39Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+16
0.1%
JaJuan Lawson run for 16 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
0.1%
Daryl Chestnut run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+18
0.1%
Diquon Woodhouse run for 18 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
0.1%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Garrett Adcock) to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
0.1%
Lamar Jordan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+11
0.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Q' Drennan for 11 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
0.0%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Anu Somoye for 12 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:44
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 54 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-5.4
TD · Q2 1:10
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 35 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q1 5:01
Tyrone Owens run for 62 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com