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AF

Air Force 26 at Wyoming 35

WYO
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:24 · Ethan Wood punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior−13.3Home team on offense+17.2Garbage-time factor+6.0Score differential+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:51: Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 20 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +13.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q3 8:55: Jacobi Owens run for no gain Jacobi Owens fumbled, recovered by Wyom D.J. May , return for 15 yds, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +16.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:21: Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +13.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:31: Timothy McVey 49 Yd pass from Nate Romine (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — AF win probability +23.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 2:01: Brian Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +17.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 8AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:40AF 4th & 10 at AF 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43WYO 4th & 3 at AF 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:13AF 4th & 9 at AF 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:24WYO 4th & 10 at AF 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:48AF 4th & 6 at WYO 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:51AF 4th & 7 at AF 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:30WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 7, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:51AF 4th & 3 at WYO 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 7 at AF 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:00WYO 4th & 5 at AF 40, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−1.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:55AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:24WYO 4th & 6 at WYO 19, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:25AF 4th & 22 at AF 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−3.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:21WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 44, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:22WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 28, up 8
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 10:40WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:51WYO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:33WYO Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:21AF Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:03AF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:31AF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:01WYO Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WYODrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2019% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
19.2%
Brian Hill run for 3 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
19.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 14 yds to the 50 yard line WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Wyom 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+27
19.2%
Josh Allen run for 27 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
19.2%
Brian Hill run for 7 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+7
19.2%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 7 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
19.2%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 11
OWN 40
+7
19.2%
Brian Hill run for 7 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-5
19.2%
Josh Allen sacked by Jack Flor for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
19.2%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
22.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 17 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
22.4%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
22.5%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
22.6%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+4
22.7%
Steve Brosy punt for 47 yds , Austin Conway returns for 4 yds to the Wyom 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
23.5%
Brian Hill run for 3 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
23.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
23.8%
Brian Hill run for no gain to the Wyom 49Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
23.7%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+7
23.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 7 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
23.5%
Ethan Wood punt for 35 yds, downed at the AFA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-8
25.4%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 1 Nate Romine fumbled,Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 18
OWN 1
+5
25.5%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+4
25.7%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
25.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
28.0%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
27.7%
Shaun Wick run for 6 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+1
27.7%
Josh Allen run for 1 yd to the AFA 48 Josh Allen fumbled, forced by Roland Ladipo, recovered by AFA Roland LadipoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6INT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
27.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 8
50
+4
27.0%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Wyom 46Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+8
27.1%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the Wyom 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-16
27.0%
Nate Romine sacked by Logan Wilson for a loss of 16 yards to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 26
OWN 46
+5
27.8%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 21
OPP 49
+42
27.9%
Nate Romine pass intercepted Marcus Epps return for 27 yds to the Wyom 22 WYOMING Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the Wyom 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
31.2%
Brian Hill run for 15 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
31.7%
Brian Hill run for no gain to the AFA 46Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
31.6%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
30.8%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Haji Dunn Jr.Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
30.1%
Ethan Wood punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:1269% → 69%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
31.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+32
31.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 32 yds to the Wyom 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-2
30.2%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+10
30.8%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 10 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
29.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+1
29.4%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the Wyom 30Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
33.2%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
30.6%
Luke Strebel 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5732% → 50%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for 3 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
31.8%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the Wyom 29Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
31.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 7 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.4%
Brian Hill run for 2 yds to the Wyom 38Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
32.6%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
31.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 10 yds to the Wyom 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
37.5%
Brian Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 47Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+12
36.5%
Josh Allen run for 12 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
37.8%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
37.6%
Josh Allen run for 11 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
37.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Austin Conway for no gain to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-7
37.8%
Brian Hill run for 3 yds to the AFA 27 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 17
OPP 37
+17
36.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to James Price for 17 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
49.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 20 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.7%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
48.6%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-6
49.3%
Steve Brosy punt for 62 yds , Austin Conway returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4850% → 50%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
50.2%
Brian Hill run for no gain to the Wyom 4Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
50.0%
Brian Hill run for no gain to the Wyom 4Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+3
50.8%
Josh Allen run for 3 yds to the Wyom 7Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
50.0%
Ethan Wood punt for 23 yds, downed at the Wyom 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2450% → 51%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
49.7%
Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the Wyom 22Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
49.0%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-1
50.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 23Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
48.8%
Luke Strebel 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:1152% → 54%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
51.5%
ALLEN, Josh pass complete to GENTRY, Tanner for 50 yards to the AF25 (STEELHAMMER, We), PENALTY WY ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WY20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
53.8%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.6%
Nate Romine run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
50.0%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-3
49.0%
Tyler Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
50.5%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
52.4%
Steve Brosy punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
56.3%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
56.4%
Brian Hill run for 8 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
56.6%
Brian Hill run for 8 yds to the Wyom 40Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+15
58.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 15 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.0%
Shaun Wick run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
58.8%
Shaun Wick run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+1
57.9%
Josh Allen run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
56.1%
Ethan Wood punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FUMBLE TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
72.3%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain Jacobi Owens fumbled, recovered by Wyom D.J. May , return for 15 yds, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.1%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
72.4%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
71.6%
Timothy McVey run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.9%
Steve Brosy punt for 51 yds , Austin Conway returns for no gain to the Wyom 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
77.6%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
77.5%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the Wyom 19Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
76.8%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Tanner GentrySimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
76.0%
Ethan Wood punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
75.7%
Tyler Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 34 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 18
OWN 24
0
77.1%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ronald ClevelandSimilar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+4
77.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 14
OWN 28
-8
77.9%
Nate Romine sacked by Lucas Wacha for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 20Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 22
OWN 20
+24
78.1%
Steve Brosy punt for 47 yds , Austin Conway returns for 24 yds to the AFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 20TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:5786% → 95%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
85.5%
ALLEN, Josh pass incomplete to GENTRY, Tanner, PENALTY AF holding 10 yards to the AF33, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
85.5%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+32
94.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 32 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
81.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.2%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the Wyom 29Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
86.4%
Brian Hill run for 2 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
86.2%
Josh Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
85.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 23INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
84.7%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 14 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
83.8%
Nate Romine pass intercepted Antonio Hull return for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2188% → 88%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.2%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd to the Wyom 33Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
88.1%
ALLEN, Josh pass incomplete to HOLLISTER, J., PENALTY AF pass interference 15 yards to the WY48, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
88.8%
Brian Hill run for 4 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
90.2%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Weston SteelhammerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-8
89.9%
Josh Allen sacked by Santo Coppola for a loss of 8 yards to the Wyom 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
88.3%
Ethan Wood punt for 40 yds, downed at the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 25TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:5913% → 24%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+28
87.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 28 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
86.4%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+28
86.3%
Timothy McVey run for 28 yds to the Wyom 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.0%
Timothy McVey run for no gain to the Wyom 25Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
84.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+12
86.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 12 yds to the Wyom 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
84.0%
Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the Wyom 8Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-1
84.0%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 9Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+8
85.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the Wyom 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.0%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the Wyom 1Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.0%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:4184% → 82%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
84.0%
Brian Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 7Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+8
82.6%
Josh Allen run for 8 yds to the Wyom 15Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+7
82.5%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 7 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
83.6%
Brian Hill run for 2 yds to the Wyom 24Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+1
83.4%
Josh Allen run for 1 yd to the Wyom 25Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+3
82.5%
Josh Allen run for 3 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+4
81.7%
Ethan Wood punt for 41 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 27TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:2615% → 40%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
85.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Timothy McVey for 28 yds to the Wyom 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
82.9%
Nate Romine sacked by Youhanna Ghaifan for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 39Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-10
83.7%
ROMINE, Nate pass complete to ROBINETTE, Jale for 25 yards to the WY14 (GAFFORD, Rico), PENALTY AF holding 10 yards to the WY49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 22
OPP 49
+49
60.2%
Timothy McVey 49 Yd pass from Nate Romine (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 28TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:3076% → 96%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
76.3%
Tanner Gentry run for 15 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
77.3%
Brian Hill run for no gain to the AFA 22Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-11
78.9%
Josh Allen sacked by Weston Steelhammer for a loss of 11 yards to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 21
OPP 33
+32
78.3%
Josh Allen run for 32 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 29INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by Rico GaffordSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jacobi OwensSimilar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.3%
Nate Romine pass intercepted Antonio Hull return for a loss of 5 yards to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
95.7%
Brian Hill run for 7 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
95.9%
Brian Hill run for 5 yds to the Wyom 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 45Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:31
Timothy McVey 49 Yd pass from Nate Romine (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-23.5
TD · Q4 2:01
Brian Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+17.3
FUMBLE · Q3 8:55
Jacobi Owens run for no gain Jacobi Owens fumbled, recovered by Wyom D.J. May , return for 15 yds, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
+16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com