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FRES

Fresno State 20 at UNLV 45

UNLV
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:31 · Evan Pantels punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior+3.1Home team on offense+21.7Score differential+4.7Garbage-time factor+12.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Blowout margin−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:40: Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 15 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +8.0 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:44: Charles Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +6.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:56: Dalton Sneed pass complete to Elijah Trosclair for 61 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +7.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:38: Dalton Sneed run for 91 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +7.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:17: Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 80 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +7.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:48FRES 4th & 10 at UNLV 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:31UNLV 4th & 2 at FRES 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:17FRES 4th & 24 at FRES 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:53UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:41FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:37FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:50FRES 4th & 14 at FRES 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:19UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 35, up 14
    Close callPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11FRES 4th & 1 at UNLV 23, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.0%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:55UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:39FRES 4th & 5 at UNLV 25, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−4.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:34FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:40UNLV 4th & 5 at FRES 21, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:17FRES 4th & 8 at UNLV 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:17UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:28FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:31UNLV 4th & 13 at FRES 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:02FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 10, down 11
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:23FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:11UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:40FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:44UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:56UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:38UNLV Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:17FRES Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:29UNLV Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:32UNLV Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 1:1223% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.2%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
77.2%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
77.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Dontel JamesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+19
77.2%
Chason Virgil run for 19 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
76.9%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-5
76.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
76.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
77.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
76.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
76.7%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Andrew Price for 6 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
76.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+14
76.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 14 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
76.9%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 49Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
76.9%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 49Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+8
76.8%
Dalton Sneed run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
76.9%
Evan Pantels punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.7%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
75.7%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+17
75.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 17 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
75.4%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
75.4%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+14
75.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Michael Martens for 14 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
75.1%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-16
75.1%
Chason Virgil sacked by Tau Lotulelei for a loss of 11 yards to the UNLV 44 FRESNO ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Chason Virgil) to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 24
OWN 39
0
75.7%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 24
OWN 39
0
75.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
74.9%
Darren Woods Jr. run for 11 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
75.1%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-1
75.0%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 34Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
74.6%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr., broken up by James BaileySimilar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+2
74.5%
Evan Pantels punt for 48 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 2 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0926% → 26%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
74.1%
Jamire Jordan run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
73.9%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
74.1%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+2
73.5%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
73.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 5:5574% → 78%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
73.8%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+10
74.3%
Dalton Sneed run for 10 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
74.7%
Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
74.7%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
74.7%
Charles Williams run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
75.0%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
75.0%
Dalton Sneed run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
75.0%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+6
74.6%
Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
74.5%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+12
74.5%
Dalton Sneed run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
74.5%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
74.5%
Dalton Sneed run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:2523% → 33%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
77.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 6 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+52
76.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 52 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
74.5%
Jamire Jordan run for 3 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
66.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 15 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4672% → 80%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
71.7%
Dalton Sneed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
71.5%
Dalton Sneed run for 8 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+9
72.4%
Dalton Sneed run for 9 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
73.2%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
73.5%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+39
73.1%
Charles Williams run for 39 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.0%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
77.8%
Dontel James run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
77.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+4
78.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
77.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
78.0%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+4
78.5%
Chason Virgil run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
78.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 yds , Mekhi Stevenson returns for no gain to the UNLV 33 Mekhi Stevenson fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:2778% → 86%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
78.0%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 6 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+61
85.8%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Elijah Trosclair for 61 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
84.4%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-9
84.2%
Chason Virgil sacked by Mike Hughes Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
85.0%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
85.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.7%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
86.5%
Dalton Sneed run for 7 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 3
OWN 35
0
86.2%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by DeShawn PottsSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
85.9%
Evan Pantels punt , Juju Hughes returns for no gain to the UNLV 32 Juju Hughes return for 11 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2317% → 16%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
83.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chason Virgil for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
83.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+8
83.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
84.2%
Dontel James run for no gain to the UNLV 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
87.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
86.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
86.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-1
86.4%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
85.6%
Evan Pantels punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:2213% → 17%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
86.7%
Jamire Jordan run for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+7
86.9%
Dontel James run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
87.0%
VIRGIL, Chason pass intercepted by KEYS, Kenny at the LV45, KEYS, Kenny return to the FS30 (JAMES, Dontel), PENALTY LV pass interference (HOUGH, Tim) 15 yards to the FS39, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
85.7%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 24 Chason Virgil fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Chason VirgilSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 25
OWN 24
+8
86.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+38
87.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 38 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
84.4%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
84.4%
Jamire Jordan run for 4 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
84.8%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
83.3%
Kody Kroening 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
4 plays · 90 yds · 1:0185% → 92%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
84.7%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 9Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 11
OWN 9
0
84.5%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Tim Holt, broken up by James BaileySimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+91
92.3%
Dalton Sneed run for 91 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
93.0%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
93.0%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Robert JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
93.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 54 yds, downed at the UNLV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:4194% → 98%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.4%
Dalton Sneed run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
94.4%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+36
94.2%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 36 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
94.8%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+2
94.8%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
94.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
94.8%
Dalton Sneed run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
94.8%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+1
94.7%
Dalton Sneed run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
98.0%
Evan Pantels 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
90.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 80 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1094% → 93%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
93.5%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 5 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
93.6%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-4
93.4%
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Lexington Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+2
92.9%
Evan Pantels punt for 45 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 2 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:359% → 13%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.1%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
91.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
91.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
90.6%
Jamire Jordan run for 4 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-1
90.5%
Jamire Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 7
50
+18
90.6%
Chason Virgil run for 3 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Robert Jackson) to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
89.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
89.8%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
90.5%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
87.0%
Kody Kroening 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.8%
Dalton Sneed run for no gain to the UNLV 35Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
88.5%
SNEED, Dalton pass complete to KANTEMAN, T. for 1 yard to the LV36 (HUGHES, Brandon), PENALTY FS personal foul (OTUKOLO, Nela) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN LV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
87.7%
Evan Pantels punt for 52 yds, downed at the FrsSt 4Similar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
50
+4
89.9%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-4
89.8%
Dalton Sneed run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 10
50
-6
89.0%
Dalton Sneed run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 44 Dalton Sneed fumbled, recovered by UNLVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
91.1%
Dontel James run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+4
90.9%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
91.1%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
91.1%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
91.5%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
91.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Stevenson at the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0094% → 92%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
93.7%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 8
50
+11
93.6%
Charles Williams run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
93.8%
David Greene run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
93.7%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
93.4%
Dalton Sneed pass incomplete to Devonte Boyd, broken up by Jamal EllisSimilar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 8
OPP 37
-5
92.8%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
92.3%
Evan Pantels punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
93.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
93.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
93.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
93.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Stevenson at the UNLV 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:0895% → 99%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
95.2%
Charles Williams run for 42 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
95.2%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
98.7%
David Greene run for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
98.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 9 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
97.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Jay'Onn MylesSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
97.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Michael MartensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 29TD
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:1799% → 100%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
98.9%
Xzaviar Campbell run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
David Greene run for 16 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Michael MartensSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 12 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon HardawaySimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Justin Allen for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+59
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Darius Mouton return for 59 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:40
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 15 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-8
TD · Q2 2:56
Dalton Sneed pass complete to Elijah Trosclair for 61 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q3 7:38
Dalton Sneed run for 91 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com