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USU

Utah State 10 at Boise State 21

BOIS
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:40 · Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+32.9Home team on offense+1.8Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:32: UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 30 — USU win probability +4.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:01: Timeout UTAH ST, clock 00:01 — BOIS win probability +3.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:07: Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:03: Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 36 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:41: Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 30 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +5.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8USU made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 13:14BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:24USU 4th & 5 at USU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:01USU 4th & 11 at USU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:33USU 4th & 13 at BOIS 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:02BOIS 4th & 4 at BOIS 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:40USU 4th & 1 at BOIS 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:27USU 4th & 8 at BOIS 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:34BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:48USU 4th & 1 at USU 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:25BOIS 4th & 8 at USU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:33USU 4th & 15 at USU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:00USU 4th & 11 at BOIS 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−4.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:47USU 4th & 21 at BOIS 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:41USU 4th & 15 at BOIS 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:56BOIS 4th & 16 at BOIS 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:00USU 4th & 8 at USU 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:36BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 44, up 11
    Close callPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:33USU 4th & 2 at USU 13, down 11
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:20USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:08USU 4th & 4 at USU 48, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:37BOIS 4th & 20 at USU 34, up 11
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:56BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:07BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:03BOIS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:41USU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:4191% → 90%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
90.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
90.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jake RohSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+12
90.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 12 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas SperbeckSimilar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
90.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
90.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for no gain to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+11
90.1%
Sean Wale punt for 49 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 11 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3610% → 10%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
90.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 6 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-4
89.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+3
89.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
89.7%
Aaron Dalton punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5290% → 89%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
89.5%
Akilian Butler run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
89.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+2
89.2%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+9
88.9%
Sean Wale punt for 42 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 9 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5911% → 11%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
88.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 4 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
88.5%
Kent Myers sacked by David Moa for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+6
88.7%
Aaron Dalton punt for 51 yds , Akilian Butler returns for 6 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:4989% → 90%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
88.5%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
88.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+7
88.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
88.2%
Brett Rypien run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+61
89.6%
Cedrick Wilson pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 61 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:0211% → 11%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
89.3%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 14Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+16
89.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 16 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
89.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 9 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+22
88.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jaren Colston-Green for 6 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
88.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+1
88.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+1
88.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 1 yd to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
88.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion TarverSimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
88.8%
Aaron Dalton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1889% → 88%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
88.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
88.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for no gain to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+5
88.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Edmund Faimalo) to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & 4
OWN 12
0
88.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Bubba OgbeborSimilar
Q1 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 12
0
88.0%
Sean Wale punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:1812% → 15%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
87.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 7 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+9
87.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 9 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
87.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
87.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 5 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
87.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
87.6%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
86.7%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+15
86.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 2 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Elliot Hoyte) to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
86.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
86.3%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
86.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
85.5%
Brock Warren 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:5186% → 84%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
85.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
85.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Chaz AndersonSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+10
85.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 10 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Thomas Sperbeck, broken up by Daniel GraySimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
84.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
85.2%
Brett Rypien run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
85.2%
Thomas Sperbeck run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-1
84.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
83.9%
Sean Wale punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:3516% → 17%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
84.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for 6 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 4
OWN 24
-10
84.0%
Lindsey, Tonny rush for 1 yard to the UTAHST25, PENALTY UTAHST holding (Albrecht, Austin) 10 yards to the UTAHST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+7
84.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 7 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+10
84.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 10 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
83.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 9 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
82.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad Lewis, broken up by Blake WhitlockSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
82.7%
LaJuan Hunt run for no gain to the UthSt 40Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
83.4%
Aaron Dalton punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0584% → 83%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
84.1%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
84.8%
Jeremy McNichols run for 15 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
85.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+3
84.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
84.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian Butler, broken up by Daniel GraySimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+6
83.1%
Ben Weaver pass complete to Alec Dhaenens for 6 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:3218% → 17%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
82.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
82.5%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-3
83.0%
Kent Myers sacked by Sam McCaskill for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 15
OWN 30
-4
83.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 41 yds , Akilian Butler returns for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 25 Akilian Butler fumbled, recovered by UthSt Gerold BrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 10 yds · 2:3221% → 16%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
78.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+2
79.5%
Kent Myers run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+14
79.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 14 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
78.0%
Kent Myers run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
77.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 1 yd to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-6
80.1%
Kent Myers sacked by David Moa and Sam McCaskill for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+32
83.7%
Brock Warren 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:0318% → 18%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
81.8%
Kent Myers run for 45 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
78.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Preston Brooksby) to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
79.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+2
79.6%
Kent Myers run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 13
OPP 33
-8
80.3%
Kent Myers sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 21
OPP 41
0
81.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:2881% → 91%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
81.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+6
81.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
80.7%
Devan Demas run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
83.1%
Devan Demas run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
83.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 26 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
84.6%
Devan Demas run for 1 yd to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+25
85.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 25 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for no gain to the UthSt 8Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
85.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:2410% → 10%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
90.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 38 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
88.8%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 15
OPP 42
0
89.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
89.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
89.9%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
90.5%
Aaron Dalton punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Akilian Butler at the BoiSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:4290% → 90%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+29
90.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chaz Anderson for 29 yds to the BoiSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
91.1%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-9
91.3%
Brett Rypien sacked by Jontrell Rocquemore for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 16
OWN 39
0
90.5%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
90.1%
Sean Wale punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:549% → 9%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
90.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
90.8%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
91.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q3 4:00
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
91.5%
Aaron Dalton punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5991% → 91%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
91.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
91.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
91.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Jeremy McNicholsSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
91.1%
Sean Wale punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:478% → 8%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
92.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+3
92.1%
LaJuan Hunt run for 3 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+2
91.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 2 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 13
+27
92.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 42 yds, UTAH ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Anthony Williams) to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST down. Utah State's Anthony Williams ejected for targeting.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:5893% → 98%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
92.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
92.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
92.4%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
93.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 14
OPP 33
-5
92.7%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Alec Dhaenens) to the UthSt 38Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+12
92.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jeremy McNichols for 12 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-10
92.8%
Rypien, Brett rush for 7 yards to the UTAHST19, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Lewis, Archie) 10 yards to the UTAHST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+36
98.1%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 36 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 4:183% → 9%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion TarverSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
97.2%
LaJuan Hunt run for 1 yd to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
97.2%
Myers, Kent pass incomplete to Tarver, Ron'Quavion, PENALTY UTAHST face mask (Tarver, Ron'Quavion) 15 yards to the UTAHST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-5
97.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Jake Simonich) to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 30
OWN 15
+1
97.4%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 29
OWN 16
-5
97.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Rayshad Lewis) to the UthSt 11Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 34
OWN 11
+2
97.5%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the UthSt 13 UTAH ST Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 32
OWN 13
+14
97.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 14 yds to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+15
97.5%
Myers, Kent pass incomplete to Tarver, Ron'Quavion, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Ford, Raymond) 15 yards to the UTAHST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST.Similar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.3%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
97.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 6 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
97.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Braelon RobertsSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+15
97.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 15 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
97.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
96.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion Tarver, broken up by Jonathan MoxeySimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+30
91.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 30 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
15 plays · 41 yds · 5:3894% → 97%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
93.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
93.9%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 14 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
94.7%
Jeremy McNichols run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
95.2%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
95.9%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
96.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 13 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
96.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
96.6%
Jeremy McNichols run for 6 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
97.0%
Jeremy McNichols run for 1 yd to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-13
97.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the UthSt 21 BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Travis Averill) to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 22
OPP 36
+2
97.3%
Jeremy McNichols run for 2 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 20
OPP 34
0
97.0%
Sean Wale punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 84 yds · 1:302% → 3%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
97.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
97.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+15
97.9%
Myers, Kent pass incomplete to Lindsey, Tonny, PENALTY BOISEST targeting 15 yards to the UTAHST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST. Jonathan Moxey ejected for targetingSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
97.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Jaren Colston-Green) to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+7
97.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 7 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+18
97.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 18 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to LaJuan HuntSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
97.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion TarverSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
97.4%
Kent Myers run for 13 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
96.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 5 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
96.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+31
96.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 31 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:07
Brett Rypien pass complete to Thomas Sperbeck for 5 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q4 7:41
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 30 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q4 12:03
Brett Rypien pass complete to Cedrick Wilson for 36 yds for a TD, (Tyler Rausa KICK)
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com