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NAVY

Navy 14 at Air Force 28

AF
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:41 · Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds , Craig Scott returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+27.5Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:57: Timothy McVey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +9.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:51: AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AFA 23 — AF win probability +4.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:40: Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +9.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:33: Shawn White run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +4.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:23: Nate Romine pass complete to Timothy McVey for 62 yds for a TD, (R. Cleveland Run For Two-point Conversion) — AF win probability +3.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 11:47NAVY 4th & 8 at AF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:41AF 4th & 7 at AF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03AF 4th & 18 at NAVY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:31AF 4th & 14 at NAVY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:51NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:29AF 4th & 17 at NAVY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:29NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:16AF 4th & 5 at AF 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:57NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.9%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:48NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:33AF 4th & 3 at NAVY 5, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−3.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:23NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 38, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:00AF 4th & 2 at AF 37, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:47NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 23, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:10NAVY 4th & 1 at AF 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q3 9:57AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:40AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:33NAVY Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.1%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:23AF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:10NAVY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1321% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.0%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
79.0%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+30
79.0%
Will Worth pass complete to Dishan Romine for 30 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
79.0%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
79.0%
Shawn White run for 3 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-5
79.0%
NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
79.0%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
78.2%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
78.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
78.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
78.2%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+48
78.2%
Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds , Craig Scott returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:2222% → 23%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
77.9%
Chris High run for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
77.9%
Chris High run for no gain to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+39
78.0%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 39 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
77.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jack Flor) to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
76.8%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-6
76.8%
Will Worth sacked by Haji Dunn Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 43 Will Worth fumbled, recovered by AFA Haji Dunn Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
78.5%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
78.3%
Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
78.4%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
78.5%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
78.6%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 46 Nate Romine fumbled,Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 23
OWN 46
+5
78.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 18
OPP 49
0
77.9%
Steve Brosy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
76.8%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Toneo Gulley) to the Navy 8Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+5
77.0%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
76.9%
Will Worth pass complete to Toneo Gulley for 5 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+1
77.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 1 yd to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
77.2%
Erik Harris punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0077% → 78%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
76.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
77.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
77.2%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
77.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+4
77.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.7%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette, broken up by D.J. PalmoreSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
77.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for 9 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
77.6%
Tyler Williams pass intercepted Daiquan Thomasson return for no gain to the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:3325% → 25%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
75.1%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+6
74.9%
Chris High run for 6 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+1
75.0%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
74.8%
Dishan Romine run for 6 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
74.5%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.6%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
74.8%
Shawn White run for 8 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-1
73.9%
Chris High run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
74.9%
Erik Harris punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
74.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
75.1%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
74.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jacobi Owens for 11 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
75.5%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
75.8%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+21
75.1%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 21 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
76.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-6
76.8%
Timothy McVey run for a loss of 6 yards to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 14
OPP 41
0
75.1%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
74.4%
Steve Brosy punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
71.8%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+3
71.9%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+3
72.5%
Chris High run for 3 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
72.6%
Erik Harris puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FG
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:0176% → 75%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
76.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
76.0%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 8
-15
75.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Robinette) to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 21
OPP 23
+4
74.0%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+36
74.8%
Luke Strebel 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.8%
Will Worth run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
76.2%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir TillmanSimilar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+10
76.8%
Will Worth run for 10 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
77.0%
Erik Harris punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:5675% → 73%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
74.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
74.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+4
74.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
75.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-2
75.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+4
74.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
72.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 58 yds, fair catch by Craig Scott at the Navy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
75.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:5973% → 85%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
72.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+41
72.7%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 41 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
75.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 12 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
75.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
75.9%
Shayne Davern run for 5 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
75.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
75.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
75.9%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.9%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the Navy 1Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.2%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15INT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0017% → 19%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Tyler CarmonaSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
83.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 14 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
82.3%
Chris High run for 1 yd to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
82.5%
Toneo Gulley run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+3
82.0%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
82.7%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
81.4%
Will Worth pass complete to Calvin Cass Jr. for 5 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
81.1%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
81.4%
Will Worth pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:1186% → 94%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
85.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+2
84.5%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 23
OWN 25
+75
93.9%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:477% → 6%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-12
93.4%
Will Worth sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 12 yards to the Navy 15Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 22
OWN 15
+13
94.1%
Will Worth run for 13 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
94.0%
Will Worth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+3
94.1%
Erik Harris punt for 52 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for 3 yds to the AFA 31 AIR FORCE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the AFA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FG
15 plays · 82 yds · 6:4595% → 99%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
94.8%
Jacobi Owens run for 9 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+10
95.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 10 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
95.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
95.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
95.1%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
95.2%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+27
96.0%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 27 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
96.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+7
96.2%
Tyler Williams run for 7 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+6
96.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
96.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
97.2%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+4
97.2%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
98.8%
Luke Strebel 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:001% → 6%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.8%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
98.7%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 7 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.7%
Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 6 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
98.7%
Chris High run for 2 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+21
98.7%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 21 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Toneo Gulley for 6 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
98.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 5 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
98.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Weston Steelhammer) to the AFA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.7%
Shawn White run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 2:0796% → 100%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.1%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
96.2%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
96.2%
Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Timothy McVey for 62 yds for a TD, (R. Cleveland Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.3%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Dishan RomineSimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Daniel Gonzales, broken up by Jacob OnyechiSimilar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Jamir Tillman, broken up by Haji Dunn Jr.Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Will Worth pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.6%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
99.6%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+1
99.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 37Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+48
99.7%
Steve Brosy punt for 48 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 4:370% → 2%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
99.8%
Will Worth sacked by Jack Flor and Haji Dunn Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 10Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 14
OWN 10
-8
99.8%
Will Worth sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 22
OWN 2
+21
99.8%
Will Worth pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 21 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+5
99.8%
Chris High run for 5 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
99.8%
Will Worth pass complete to Brandon Colon for 17 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
99.8%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 11 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
99.8%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
99.7%
Will Worth sacked by Jack Flor and Grant Ross for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 17
OPP 40
-4
99.7%
Will Worth sacked by Haji Dunn Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 21
OPP 44
+42
99.8%
Will Worth pass complete to Brandon Colon for 42 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.6%
Shawn White run for no gain to the AFA 2Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.6%
Dishan Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.3%
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:40
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 75 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q3 9:57
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q4 8:33
Shawn White run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com