2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreTLSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:30 · Blake Cusick punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 4:59: Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 24 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +16.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:38: James Flanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +22.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:02: Chason Virgil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Van Valkenburg KICK) — FRES win probability +34.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:09: Redford Jones 28 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +18.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
- TD · OT2 0:00: Dane Evans 18 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +22.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 11 of 12TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snapGo for it76.1%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.3%average punt
- Q1 13:17TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.9%average punt
- Q1 11:45FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it26.0%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q1 9:47FRES 4th & 1 at TLSA 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.1%71% to convertField goal27.8%−0.384% to makePunt27.0%−1.2average punt
- Q1 9:40TLSA 4th & 19 at TLSA 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snapGo for it69.5%−1.410% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.0%average punt
- Q1 4:01TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snapGo for it56.4%−0.815% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.3%average punt
- Q1 1:23FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 42, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snapGo for it48.0%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 30, down 21Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it48.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.6%−1.6average punt
- Q2 11:41FRES 4th & 7 at TLSA 7, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snapGo for it59.4%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call59.9%91% to makePunt52.3%−7.6average punt
- Q2 11:35TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 12, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it34.4%−4.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%average punt
- Q2 8:08FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 29, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snapGo for it66.4%−2.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.1%average punt
- Q2 6:40FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snapGo for it58.8%−3.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%average punt
- Q2 4:19TLSA 4th & 6 at FRES 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.8%40% to convertField goal35.9%−1.934% to makePunt35.9%−1.9average punt
- Q2 4:19FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snapGo for it49.1%−0.848% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.9%average punt
- Q2 1:40FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 38, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it52.2%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.5%average punt
- Q3 8:12FRES 4th & 6 at TLSA 8, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snapGo for it65.8%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call66.0%90% to makePunt57.5%−8.6average punt
- Q3 8:12TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 44, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt25.8%−2.1average punt
- Q3 2:22FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 30, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snapGo for it61.8%−2.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.5%average punt
- Q4 13:30FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 36, down 1Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snapGo for it41.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.0%−0.5average punt
- Q4 11:43TLSA 4th & 1 at FRES 40, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.1%70% to convertField goal50.9%−9.234% to makePunt51.7%−8.3average punt
- Q4 8:20TLSA 4th & 4 at FRES 20, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snapGo for it59.4%47% to convertField goalTheir call58.1%−1.375% to makePunt38.3%−21.1average punt
- Q4 8:13FRES 4th & 5 at TLSA 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.0%42% to convertField goal34.1%−1.049% to makePunt30.5%−4.5average punt
- Q4 1:09TLSA 4th & 11 at FRES 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snapGo for it24.0%−13.522% to convertField goalTheir call37.5%87% to makePunt8.5%−29.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:24FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.1%97% to makeGo for two25.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:47FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.7%97% to makeGo for two29.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:01FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.3%97% to makeGo for two46.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:16FRES Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.3%97% to makeGo for two81.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:52TLSA Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.0%97% to makeGo for two33.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:48TLSA Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.3%97% to makeGo for two41.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 4:19TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:59TLSA Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.6%97% to makeGo for two35.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:38TLSA Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.4%97% to makeGo for two53.8%−0.645% to convert
- Q4 5:02FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.0%−0.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTLSADrive 1PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-8
22.3%
Dane Evans sacked by Jeff Camilli for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD1 play · 44 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
23.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FUMBLE2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
FRESDrive 6TD4 plays · 23 yds · 0:5226% → 28%
Q1 10:39
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
26.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-11
28.0%
Dane Evans sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 11 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4829% → 42%
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
29.2%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to JOHNSON, KeeSea, PENALTY TLS roughing passer (UWAEZUOKE, J.) 15 yards to the FS46, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-3
29.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+18
29.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 18 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+10
29.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+7
29.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
40.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-9
40.4%
Dane Evans sacked by Jeff Camilli for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 24
OWN 29
+9
40.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-1
40.6%
Dane Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 37 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+24
40.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 24 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0849% → 49%
FRESDrive 12FG9 plays · 62 yds · 2:4152% → 62%
Q2 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
51.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+26
51.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 26 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Keanu HillSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+34
53.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 34 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
53.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 11:35
4TH & 13
OWN 12
+11
61.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 11 yds to the FrsSt 23 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD1 play · 65 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
75.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 65 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD7 plays · 68 yds · 1:1440% → 36%
FRESDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:3870% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD6 plays · 71 yds · 1:0734% → 46%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
53.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 40 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3543% → 51%
FRESDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 4:19
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
47.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
51.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
51.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 49 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (-20 Yards) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+2
52.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 53 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 2 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
TLSADrive 23END OF HALF1 play · 10 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24FG18 plays · 67 yds · 6:4856% → 74%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
54.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Hayden CarmanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
56.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 8 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
64.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 7 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1330% → 49%
Q3 8:12
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
69.6%
Raymond Taylor run for no gain to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
67.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 13 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
67.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 12 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
65.7%
Dane Evans sacked by Malik Forrester for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+8
67.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
51.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 24 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26INT7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+11
62.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 11 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+13
64.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 13 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.4%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted, touchback. Jeremy Brady return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27INT2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0043% → 45%
FRESDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 61%
Q3 2:22
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+1
63.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
61.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 57 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for no gain to the Tulsa 12 Keidrien Wadley fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Keidrien WadleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29TD12 plays · 88 yds · 2:1441% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
TLSADrive 31FG12 plays · 62 yds · 3:2361% → 76%
Q4 11:43
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-11
33.3%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete (MADSEN, Nathan), PENALTY TLS holding 11 yards to the TLS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+7
35.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+4
34.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 20 TULSA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 32TD9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1137% → 76%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
36.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 21 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
38.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+16
35.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 33FG20 plays · 64 yds · 3:5336% → 56%
Q4 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
65.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
61.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
57.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
56.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+14
56.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 34END OF GAME8 plays · 5 yds · 0:1652% → 55%
FRESDrive 35FUMBLE2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
TLSADrive 36MISSED FG5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 37TD4 plays · 25 yds · 15:0060% → 79%
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+12
43.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 12 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 38DOWNS5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0028% → 16%
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-7
24.0%
Chason Virgil sacked by Petera Wilson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:02
Chason Virgil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Van Valkenburg KICK)
+34.5
TD · OT2 0:00
Dane Evans 18 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)
-22.5
TD · Q4 13:38
James Flanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-22