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TLSA

Tulsa 48 at Fresno State 41

FRES
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:40 · Blake Cusick punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTPlay 120Pregame prior−16.3Home team on offense+8.2Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Time remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:59: Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 24 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +16.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:38: James Flanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK) — TLSA win probability +22.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:02: Chason Virgil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Van Valkenburg KICK) — FRES win probability +34.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:09: Redford Jones 28 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +18.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Dane Evans 18 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick) — TLSA win probability +22.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 11 of 12TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:17TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:45FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:47FRES 4th & 1 at TLSA 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:40TLSA 4th & 19 at TLSA 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:01TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:23FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 30, down 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:41FRES 4th & 7 at TLSA 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−7.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:35TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 12, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−4.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:08FRES 4th & 12 at FRES 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:40FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:19TLSA 4th & 6 at FRES 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q2 4:19FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  15. Q2 1:40FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:12FRES 4th & 6 at TLSA 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−8.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:12TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.8%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:22FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:30FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 36, down 1
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:43TLSA 4th & 1 at FRES 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%−9.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−8.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:20TLSA 4th & 4 at FRES 20, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.1%−1.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−21.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:13FRES 4th & 5 at TLSA 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−4.5
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:09TLSA 4th & 11 at FRES 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−13.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−29.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:24FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:47FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:01FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:16FRES Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:52TLSA Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:48TLSA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:19TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:59TLSA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:38TLSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.6
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:02FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
22.3%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
22.3%
Dane Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Jeff CamilliSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-8
22.3%
Dane Evans sacked by Jeff Camilli for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
22.3%
Dalton Parks punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
23.6%
Jamire Jordan 44 Yd Run (Kody Kroening Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
23.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
23.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
23.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
23.6%
Dalton Parks punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
25.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
24.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
24.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
24.8%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
24.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
25.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+16
25.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 16 yds Keevan Lucas fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by FrsStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:5226% → 28%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
26.1%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
26.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+9
26.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+14
28.1%
Chason Virgil run for 14 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
27.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
27.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-11
28.0%
Dane Evans sacked by Tobenna Okeke for a loss of 11 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
28.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4829% → 42%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
29.3%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
29.2%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to JOHNSON, KeeSea, PENALTY TLS roughing passer (UWAEZUOKE, J.) 15 yards to the FS46, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
29.5%
Chason Virgil run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-3
29.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+18
29.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 18 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
29.5%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+10
29.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
29.5%
Chason Virgil run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+7
29.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
29.5%
Chason Virgil run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
29.5%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.9%
Dontel James run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+16
40.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
40.4%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
40.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
40.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
39.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
40.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-9
40.4%
Dane Evans sacked by Jeff Camilli for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 24
OWN 29
+9
40.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 9 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-1
40.6%
Dane Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 37 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+24
40.8%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 24 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
48.2%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
48.2%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
47.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete, broken up by Trent MartinSimilar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
46.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0849% → 49%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
51.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
51.5%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+7
51.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
51.2%
Dalton Parks punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:4152% → 62%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
51.8%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
51.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+26
51.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 26 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Keanu HillSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+34
53.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 34 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
53.7%
Chason Virgil run for no gain to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
53.7%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
53.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
62.3%
Kody Kroening 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
60.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-5
60.8%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
60.9%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 13
OWN 12
0
61.1%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:35
4TH & 13
OWN 12
+11
61.1%
Dalton Parks punt for 49 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 11 yds to the FrsSt 23 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
75.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 65 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:1440% → 36%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
59.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+6
56.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
57.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+15
54.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
55.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
63.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 23 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:3870% → 70%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
70.1%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
69.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
71.0%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
70.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:0734% → 46%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
65.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+15
65.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
64.9%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Josh AtkinsonSimilar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
65.0%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
64.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
53.6%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 40 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.6%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
59.4%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
58.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
57.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3543% → 51%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
56.9%
James Flanders run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
54.9%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
55.0%
James Flanders run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-1
55.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to D'Angelo Brewer for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+40
49.1%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 40 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.0%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.9%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
47.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
47.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
51.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
51.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 49 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (-20 Yards) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 14
OWN 29
+3
51.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
52.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+2
52.9%
Dalton Parks punt for 53 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 2 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
53.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+8
54.1%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
53.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
53.4%
Chason Virgil run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
53.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Keanu HillSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
52.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23END OF HALF
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
55.5%
James Flanders run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 6:4856% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.3%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for no gain to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
54.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Hayden CarmanSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
56.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 8 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+12
56.9%
Dontel James run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
58.4%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+11
58.3%
Dontel James run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
58.6%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
58.5%
Chason Virgil run for no gain to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+5
63.5%
TULSA Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+13
63.8%
Dontel James run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
64.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 7 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-1
64.9%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-2
63.8%
Dontel James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
73.7%
Kody Kroening 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1330% → 49%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
70.6%
Keevan Lucas run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
68.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
69.6%
Raymond Taylor run for no gain to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
67.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 13 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
67.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 12 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
65.7%
Dane Evans sacked by Malik Forrester for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+8
67.5%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
51.0%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 24 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
64.1%
Dontel James run for no gain to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
63.7%
Chason Virgil run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+11
62.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 11 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
64.4%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+13
64.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 13 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.4%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted, touchback. Jeremy Brady return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27INT
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0043% → 45%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
57.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.2%
Dane Evans pass intercepted Jamal Ellis return for no gain to the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 61%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
64.5%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+1
63.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
62.4%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
61.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 57 yds , Keidrien Wadley returns for no gain to the Tulsa 12 Keidrien Wadley fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Keidrien WadleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 2:1441% → 68%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
59.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
58.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
55.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
56.3%
James Flanders run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
53.7%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chandler Miller) to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+7
57.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+13
54.6%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
51.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
51.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
51.5%
Dane Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+11
53.8%
James Flanders run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.8%
James Flanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
40.9%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
40.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 6 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 37
-1
42.8%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
39.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Keidrien Wadley at the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:2361% → 76%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
38.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+31
39.3%
James Flanders run for 31 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
33.9%
James Flanders run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-11
33.3%
EVANS, D. pass incomplete (MADSEN, Nathan), PENALTY TLS holding 11 yards to the TLS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+8
38.1%
James Flanders run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+7
35.2%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
36.7%
James Flanders run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
33.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
31.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+1
32.2%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+4
34.4%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 20 TULSA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
24.1%
Redford Jones 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 32TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1137% → 76%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
36.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 21 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
38.9%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+7
37.9%
Dontel James run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
38.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Kerwin ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+16
35.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
41.0%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+14
41.0%
Chason Virgil run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.5%
Chason Virgil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Van Valkenburg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 33FG
20 plays · 64 yds · 3:5336% → 56%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.8%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.0%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan Lucas, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
65.8%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
61.9%
Dane Evans pass complete to Josh Atkinson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
57.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
56.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
56.3%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 8 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
56.1%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
54.2%
Dane Evans pass incomplete to Keevan LucasSimilar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+14
56.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 14 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
52.9%
James Flanders run for no gain to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+14
53.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
52.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.9%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
63.1%
James Flanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
44.5%
Redford Jones 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 34END OF GAME
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:1652% → 55%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.4%
Chason Virgil sacked by Petera Wilson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
53.7%
Chason Virgil run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
52.0%
Chason Virgil run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
57.3%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete, PENALTY FS holding 10 yards to the FS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+4
54.9%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 35FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.7%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
64.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 7 yds Aaron Peck fumbled, forced by Jeremy Brady, recovered by Tulsa Jeremy BradySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 36MISSED FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 47%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-1
40.5%
D'Angelo Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 25Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
43.7%
D'Angelo Brewer run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
52.7%
Redford Jones 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 37TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 15:0060% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Keevan Lucas run for no gain to the FrsSt 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
41.1%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 30Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+12
43.7%
Dane Evans pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 12 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
21.2%
Dane Evans 18 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 38DOWNS
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0028% → 16%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-7
24.0%
Chason Virgil sacked by Petera Wilson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
18.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 17
OPP 32
0
15.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:02
Chason Virgil run for 1 yd for a TD, (Van Valkenburg KICK)
+34.5
TD · OT2 0:00
Dane Evans 18 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)
-22.5
TD · Q4 13:38
James Flanders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
-22
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com