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CSU

Colorado State 24 at Minnesota 31

MINN
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:59 · Ryan Santoso punt for 49 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 4 yds to the ColSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+27.1Home team on offense+3.9Garbage-time factor+1.4Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:46: Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 18 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:54: Detrich Clark run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 7:00: Shannon Brooks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +8.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:12: Rodney Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +6.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:24: Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 15 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:06MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:44CSU 4th & 11 at MINN 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:59MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:31MINN 4th & 10 at CSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:12CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00CSU 4th & 5 at MINN 28, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:00CSU 4th & 1 at MINN 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−3.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:42CSU 4th & 8 at MINN 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:12CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:24MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:19CSU 4th & 5 at MINN 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−2.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:12MINN 4th & 1 at CSU 35, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.3%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    92.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:56MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:46CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:44MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:54CSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:00MINN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:12MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:24CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
88.1%
Collin Hill sacked by Steven Richardson for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-4
88.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+19
88.1%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 19 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
88.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 46 yds , Jalen Myrick returns for 1 yd to the Minn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
87.6%
Rodney Smith run for 12 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
87.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
87.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+10
87.6%
Ryan Santoso punt for 42 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 10 yds to the ColSt 22 Robert Ruiz fumbled, forced by Julian Huff,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3INT
9 plays · 54 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
87.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
87.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+1
87.1%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
87.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+6
87.2%
Collin Hill run for 6 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+37
87.2%
Collin Hill pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 37 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
87.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
87.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
87.0%
Collin Hill pass intercepted Damarius Travis return for no gain to the Minn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD
12 plays · 94 yds · 5:3886% → 87%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
86.1%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 6Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+2
86.1%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 8Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+29
86.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 29 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
86.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Eric Carter for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
50
+2
86.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
86.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for no gain to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+9
86.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 9 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
86.5%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
86.6%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+31
86.5%
Rodney Smith run for 31 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
86.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 6Similar
Q1 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1014% → 18%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
86.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 21 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+19
85.8%
Detrich Clark run for 19 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
85.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the Minn 18Similar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
86.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
81.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 18 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0284% → 87%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
83.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 18 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
84.2%
Shannon Brooks run for 8 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+14
84.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 14 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
84.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+2
84.4%
Shannon Brooks run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+10
84.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 10 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
84.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+9
84.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 9 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.5%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
85.4%
Detrich Clark run for 3 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+15
85.4%
Collin Hill pass complete to Danny Nwosu for 15 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
85.1%
Detrich Clark run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+18
85.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Steven Richardson) to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
84.3%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
84.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
85.0%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
85.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen Myrick at the Minn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
85.2%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
85.3%
Kobe McCrary run for 2 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
84.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Justin SweetSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 3
OWN 21
+4
84.4%
Ryan Santoso punt for 49 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 4 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
84.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
84.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
84.2%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Elroy Masters Jr., broken up by Antonio ShenaultSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-11
85.0%
Collin Hill sacked by Tai'yon Devers for a loss of 11 yards to the ColSt 33 Collin Hill fumbled, recovered by Minn Gaelin Elmore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10FG
10 plays · 23 yds · 4:2687% → 87%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
86.5%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+6
86.5%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-5
86.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Jared Weyler) to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+13
86.0%
Rodney Smith run for 13 yds to the ColSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
86.5%
Rodney Smith run for 15 yds to the ColSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
86.5%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the ColSt 2Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
86.5%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
86.0%
Mitch Leidner run for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 10Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
87.4%
Emmit Carpenter 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:1913% → 13%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
87.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+4
87.2%
Faton Bauta run for 4 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 4
OWN 34
-5
86.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+2
87.4%
Hayden Hunt punt for 38 yds , Jalen Myrick returns for 2 yds to the Minn 31 MINNESOTA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Minn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
86.4%
Mitch Leidner pass intercepted Braylin Scott return for no gain to the Minn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:5315% → 14%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
84.7%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 9 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
84.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Danny NwosuSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+4
84.3%
Collin Hill run for 4 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
84.4%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Robert RuizSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
84.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
85.8%
Collin Hill run for 5 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+46
86.3%
Wyatt Bryan 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
86.9%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Colton Beebe for 7 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
87.2%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
86.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 4 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
86.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Shannon BrooksSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
-5
86.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Antonio Shenault) to the Minn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+19
85.6%
Ryan Santoso punt for 38 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 19 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3314% → 28%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
85.6%
Faton Bauta run for 9 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
85.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
85.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 4 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+8
85.0%
Collin Hill run for 8 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
84.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
84.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive offside (Steven Richardson) to the Minn 21Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+1
84.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
84.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 15 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive holding (Steven Richardson) to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.2%
Detrich Clark run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:5478% → 89%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
77.8%
Shannon Brooks run for no gain to the Minn 24Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+32
77.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 32 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+35
80.3%
Shannon Brooks run for 35 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.8%
Shannon Brooks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17FG
18 plays · 59 yds · 6:1813% → 18%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
86.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
87.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Robert RuizSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+20
87.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 20 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
86.0%
HILL, Collin pass complete to GALLUP, Michael for 7 yards to the CS48 (Celestin, J;Travis,Damarius), PENALTY MINN offside (Devers, Tai'yon) 5 yards to the CS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 5
OWN 46
-1
85.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
85.6%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 7 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.1%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
85.4%
Faton Bauta run for 9 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
84.9%
Faton Bauta run for no gain to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
86.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
85.1%
Detrich Clark run for 2 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
84.3%
Collin Hill run for 4 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+6
84.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 6 yds to the Minn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
84.3%
Detrich Clark run for 2 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
85.3%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Nolan PeraltaSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
81.9%
Wyatt Bryan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 5:3087% → 96%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
86.9%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Wozniak, Nate, PENALTY CS pass interference (NUTT, Kevin) 15 yards to the MINN34, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-4
87.2%
Drew Wolitarsky run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+7
87.7%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+9
87.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Kobe McCrary for 9 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
89.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Brian Smith for 14 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
89.4%
Kobe McCrary run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+15
89.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 15 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
89.6%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 3 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
89.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+3
88.9%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
89.6%
Rodney Smith run for 8 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.0%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:486% → 18%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
93.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-6
93.8%
Collin Hill sacked by Cody Poock for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 13Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+17
94.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 17 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+29
94.0%
Hayden Hunt pass complete to Braylin Scott for 29 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
92.8%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
92.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Robert Ruiz for 11 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
92.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+13
92.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Marvin Kinsey Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 29 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalen Myrick) to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
92.0%
Detrich Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 15Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
81.8%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 15 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 88%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.0%
Kobe McCrary run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
89.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Colton Beebe for 3 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-4
89.4%
Mitch Leidner sacked by Darnell Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 25Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 51 yds, downed at the ColSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
87.7%
Faton Bauta run for 13 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
86.0%
Faton Bauta run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+15
87.9%
Collin Hill pass complete to Danny Nwosu for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
50
-4
83.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-1
87.5%
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 45 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+10
88.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Danny Nwosu for 10 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
85.9%
Collin Hill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 31 yds · 1:3895% → 97%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
94.9%
Shannon Brooks run for 6 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
96.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 5 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
96.0%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
97.0%
Shannon Brooks run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-5
97.0%
Shannon Brooks run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 40Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+5
96.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+11
96.7%
Shannon Brooks run for 11 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:54
Detrich Clark run for 2 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q4 6:24
Collin Hill pass complete to Michael Gallup for 15 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q3 7:00
Shannon Brooks run for 9 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com